WARSAW – When Massive street protests swept through Belarus Two years ago after a fraudulent election, the powerful leader of the Eastern European nation, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, backed by the Kremlin, sent security agents and money to support him.
Today, eight months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Lukashenko’s ability to stay in power is in danger of slipping as Moscow pressures him to become more involved in the ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.
Russia started its invasion of Ukraine in February with a strong push towards Kyiv, capital of Ukraine, from the territory of Belarus. With his forces now bogged down or withdrawn, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin is seeking stronger support from Mr. Lukashenko.
After meeting Putin in St.Petersburg last weekend, Lukashenko on Monday told military and security officials that Ukraine, Poland and NATO were “trying to draw us into a war.” .
“We must not let them drag us into a war,” he added.
His remarks, though aimed at NATO, showed deep discontent with what Western and Ukrainian officials believe is increasing Russian pressure to send Belarusian forces into the war.
Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst who fled to Poland after a brutal crackdown on post-election protests in 2020, warned that it was unclear exactly what Mr. Belarus’s leader in St.Petersburg, but he added, “it is very clear that Lukashenko is not yet ready to go to war” because of the enormous political risks that would bring.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, a Belarusian opposition leader and 2020 presidential candidate now living in exile, this week described any direct involvement by her country as “political suicide” for Mr. Lukashenko.
There has been a flurry of troop movements and other military operations across Belarus in recent days. But among the most conspicuous movements reported by Belarusian Hajun Projectmilitary operations watchdog, which has moved by rail Belarusian tanks and other equipment to Russia and out of territory near Ukraine, apparently to help bolster Moscow’s dwindling arsenal .
The Institute for War StudiesAn American research group, assessed the possibility of Belarus directly participating in the war as “very unlikely”.
Yet even without entering the conflict directly, Lukashenko is grappling with a new set of dangers posed by Putin’s invasion. They include a The steady flow of opposition activists, who had previously pledged nonviolent protest, came to Ukraine to take up arms against Russia.
These volunteer fighters have so far shunned Belarusian territory but have radicalized an opposition movement that is now, for the first time, trained with modern weapons and combat experience.
“We have two goals. We are helping to defend Ukraine against Russia but we are also pushing for the time when Belarus is liberated from Lukashenko,” said Vadim Kabanchuk, deputy commander of the Kalinouski Regiment, a volunteer force helping Ukraine that he said has nearly 500 warplanes. fighting, mainly Belarusians.
“The main reason Lukashenko has lasted so long is the support from Putin. If Putin exhausts his resources in Ukraine, he won’t have much left to support Lukashenko,” Kabanchuk, 47, added in an interview this week during a visit to the Polish capital Warsaw, where he is recruiting volunteer fighters from among the large members of Poland. Belarusian community.
A senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that the Belarusian warplanes, integrated into Ukraine’s International Corps, are symbolic but less numerous than Kabanchuk claimed. A second Belarusian armed group, the Pahonia, is also fighting in Ukraine but is smaller.
Lukashenko’s security services nonetheless attach great importance to these forces.
Ivan Tertel, head of the security service of Belarus, still uses the Soviet-era name, KGB, warned last week that the Kalinouski . Regiment and other “armed formations” are being “prepared in Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania in pursuit of the goal of seizing power in the Republic of Belarus by force.” Poland and Lithuania, which share a border with Belarus, are both members of NATO.
Kabanchuk, deputy commander of the Kalinouski Regiment, said the current danger for Lukashenko, was not an armed attack from Ukraine by a political enemy but rather his own alliance and dependence on Kremlin.
Mr. Kabanchuk said: “He has no room to maneuver. “He used to play between Russia and the West. But Putin has now taken him too far.”
“The two will sink together on this Titanic,” he added.
Mr. Lukashenko’s usually highly disciplined government, clearly rattled by the pressure, is indeed showing signs of strain.
In an interview published on Friday Speaking to Russian newspaper Izvestiya, veteran Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir V. Makei said that after meetings between Mr. Lukashenko and his security officials, “a regime of counterterrorism operations” had been put in place. nationwide to guard against “provocative actions”. A few hours later, the state news agency, Belta, citing the KGB, said contrary to those claims and said that no special mode is in effect.
Until Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Belarus had been stuck in the same grim repeating cycle of events for more than two decades: an unthinkable election victory for Mr. Lukashenko. , then peaceful street protests and then, with support from Russia, a violent crackdown.
In 2020, after Mr. Lukashenko announced that he had been re-elected for another 6th term to a 6th term, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets to protest what they and the West denounced. is a transparently fraudulent vote.
It was the most severe unrest since Mr. Lukashenko won the first and relatively fair election in 1994. However, he retained power thanks to unwavering support from Mr. Putin.
However, the war in Ukraine threatens to break this cycle, straining Russia’s resources and increasing risks for Mr. Lukashenko.
In what many analysts see as a desperate attempt to keep oil prices down and other Russian aid flowing while avoiding direct involvement in Ukraine, Lukashenko on Monday vowed to let the Russian military returned to Belarus in large numbers and formed an alliance. force as a bulwark for NATO. The Belarusian Defense Ministry on Friday said Russian troops would join the new joint force in the coming days.
In response, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, on Tuesday asked the leaders of the Group of Seven to send observers to his country’s nearly 700-mile border with Belarus, warning that “Russia is trying to try to engage Belarus directly in this war.”
But since the beginning of this week, The General Staff of Ukraine said: it did not see “signs” that Mr. Lukashenko’s army was preparing for an attack.
Belarus has very few combat-ready troops and its equipment is largely Soviet-era equipment. Though far from a formidable fighting force, the Belarusian military has raised concerns in Ukraine that this force could be used to divert the attention of Kyiv and the army from fighting in the south and south. east to guard against the possibility of a new attack from the north on the Ukrainian capital.
However, this attempt to distract, if true, has come at a heavy cost for Mr. Lukashenko. He is increasingly seen by Ukraine and the West as Russia’s complicit ally, who deserves to be punished with the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia. It has also invigorated his political enemies.
Internally silenced by Belarus by mass arrests following the 2020 protests, Mr Lukashenko’s exiled and often mean-spirited opponents have had a new spring in their stride, believing Russia is now are unwittingly helping their cause by pushing the Belarusian leader into a dangerous corner.
Long committed to peaceful protest, the opposition movement has also taken a more radical turn when activists like Mr. Kabanchuk took up arms in Ukraine. Ms. Tikhanovskaya and her supporters still push for nonviolent change but also voice their support for Belarusian fighters in Ukraine.
Praising members of the Kalinouski Regiment as “brave men and women”, Franak Viacorka, Ms. Tikhanovskaya’s senior adviser, said they “risked their lives and their health because they understood” that if Ukraine wins, Belarus will have a chance to change. If the Ukrainians lose, there will be no Ukraine and no Belarus.”
Tomas Dapkus Contribution report from Vilnius, Lithuania.
