From Not many people know that
By Paul Homewood
The likelihood of breaking a key global warming threshold has increased dramatically, according to a new analysis.
Researchers from the Met Office in the UK say there is now a 50 per cent chance that the world will be 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer within the next five years.
Such an increase would be temporary, but the researchers are concerned about the overall direction of the temperature.
They say it is almost certain that 2022-2026 will see the warmest year on record.
The Bureau of Meteorology is the UK’s national meteorological agency.
As the level of warming gases in the atmosphere has increased rapidly over the past three decades, global temperatures have responded by increasing gradually.
In 2015, The average temperature of the world increased by 1C . for the first time above pre-industrial levels, generally considered to be the temperature recorded in the mid-19th century.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-enosystem-61383391?at_campaign=KARANGA&at_medium=RSS
For starters, the world won’t”1.5 degrees Celsius warmer within the next 5 years”, as Matt McGrath writes. If he really believes it, he should get another job.
Second, why the obsession with temperatures in the 19 degrees Celsius range, when the Little Ice Age was still raging? There was nothing we could do to bring the temperature back down to that level, and no one in their minds wanted to do so.
Where we are now and what we should focus on is what will happen in the future. But if we do that, of course, the numbers look much less intimidating.
According to satellites, the most reliable source, global temperature anomalies have ranged between -0.4C and 0.7C over the past forty years. The exception was in the years following the El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) eruptions, which lowered the temperature.
These fluctuations are driven mainly by ENSO changes. The record El Niño in 2015/16 resulted in temperatures about 0.1C higher than in 1998:
For the Met Office’s forecast to come to fruition, we’ll need another massive, record-breaking El Niño, which is extremely unlikely, given the oceans lost so much heat in 2015/16. But even then, it could be only a hundredth of a degree warmer than 2016.
The reality is that, unlike the BBC’s apocalyptic scenario, any change to Earth’s climate is very small, and would not be noticeable if the media were not constantly reporting on it. it.
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