From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Global Warming Blog
Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
I’ll go right to the results, pretty simple.
As seen in the accompanying chart, 50-year temperature trends (1973-2022) in summer (June/July/August) for 48 contiguous US states from 36 climate modeling experiments CMIP-6 averages almost twice the rate of warming observed by NOAA climate division datasets.
36 models are the models listed at KNMI Climate Explorer site, using Tas (surface air temperature), one member per model, for the ssp245 radiation forced scenario. (The website says there are 40 models, but I found that four of the models have dual entry). Surface temperature observations come from NOAA / NCEI.
Official NOAA observations give a 50-year summer temperature trend of +0.26 C/decade in the United States, while the pattern trend ranges from +0.28 to +0.71 C/decade.
To test the observations, I made 18 daily UTC measurements from 497 ASOS and AWOS stations in Global hourly integrated surface database (mostly independent of officially homogenized NOAA data) and compute similar trends for each station separately. I then took the mean of all reported trends from each of the 48 states and performed the 48 state weighted regional temperature trends from those 48 averages, then There I also get +0.26 C/decade. (Note that this may be an overestimate if increased urban heat island effect has profoundly influenced trends over the past 50 years, and I haven’t made any adjustments for that).
The significance of this finding should be clear: Since U.S. energy policy depends on predictions from these models, the tendency to generate too much warming (and possibly warming-related climate change) should be included in the plan. energy policy planning. I doubt it happens, given the exaggerations about climate change that are regularly promoted by environmental groups, anti-oil advocates, the media, politicians and most government agencies. .
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HT / Orange_WORLD
And here’s a music coda from The Specials: Too Hot. – charles
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