We have experienced a cycle of consistently higher than normal temperatures without any major heat waves over the past week.
But after a brief warming period today and tomorrow, Temperatures will drop to normal or even below normal in this area. A week without significant thunderstorm activity, but with coastal drizzle.
To understand what’s going on, take a look at the high-level weather forecast maps for next week.
But not just any map. Let me show you the average of multiple forecasts…a set of predictions.
Why? Because the average of a diverse set of forecasts typically has more skill than any individual forecast. These maps show the upper altitude (solid line) at 500 hPa pressure, about half the pressure at sea level. Alternatively, you can think of them as representing the pressure at 18,000 ft. The shading shows the difference from normal (blue is below normal – trough, red is above normal or ridge).
There is an offshore trough and a mountain range centered in Alberta. This pattern leads to slightly above normal temperatures in the Northwest.
In contrast, tomorrow’s pattern is warmer for us, with the ridge strengthening and moving a bit west. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s in the western WA lowlands tomorrow. Around 105-110F in the Columbia Basin. Hot.
By Wednesday, the trough will move into coastal BC and significant cooling could be seen.
And this cool trough continues to move in on Friday. Not a warm pattern for us.
The latest NOAA National Composite Model (a statistical combination of multiple forecast models) shows temperatures will drop significantly from Saturday through mid-week, with highs only reaching the mid-70s on some days. Mid-50s at night, which means a good night’s sleep!
In eastern Washington, temperatures will drop significantly, from around 110F to below 90F in Pasco.
Precipitation?
Drizzle along the coast and light rain, but little inland (see the Central European forecast for rainfall totals through next Saturday morning). No thunderstorms, meaning no more lightning-caused wildfires. This is the driest time of year in terms of climate, so nothing out of the ordinary.
In other words: Expect mild, moderate, and pleasant weather this week after a warm weekend. The streak of 80-degree temperatures in SeaTac will end. And the below-normal wildfire situation in Washington will continue.
