The $500,000 Diana Stakes (G1T) is the first Grade 1 race in what promises to be another big one. Saratoga Race Track Summer meeting. Five of the 10 horses running on the paddock at Diana are millionaires, and these horses are just a few of the many contenders in this race.
Leading the field is Didia with more than $1.5 million in career winnings, following a similar New York Stakes (G1T) win last month at Saratoga. Canadian Classic winner Moira ($1.4 million) is her first start this year, after winning the Canadian Stakes (G2T) last September as her biggest turf achievement. Both Cotton socks And Gina Romantic Fluffy Socks enters this race coming off a win in the Gallorette Stakes (G3T), while Gina Romantica hasn’t won since last fall, but that win came in the First Lady Stakes (G1T). Chili flag crossed the $1 million threshold last month with a win in the Just a Game Stakes (G1T) and certainly fits the bill. The talent doesn’t stop there as 2023 winner Diana Whitebeam trying to improve after a narrow defeat when finishing second in Just a Game, as well as Mission of Joy who was just a head behind in third place. Likewise, Evvie Jet who won the Ballston Spa Stakes (G2T) last summer at Saratoga, led from the start in the Just a Game race and was beaten a total of three-quarters of a horse length when finishing fourth in that race. Marie’s niece also looks to have a great chance of success as she recently finished second to Didia in the New York Stakes. shrubs round the track but is not without chances either as she was beaten a neck by Chili Flag in the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2T) in May before struggling in the Just a Game Stakes last month. Valentine’s Day Price is allowed to run if the race is on grass and is run on dirt. She won the Critical Eye Stakes on dirt at Saratoga last month.
Top candidates:
Trainer Chad Brown has put five of Diana’s 10 main-course horses in his own right, but he still may not find himself in the winner’s circle when all is said and done. That’s because the horse to beat could be Didia, trained by Ignacio Correas IV. The 6-year-old mare, winner of 11 of her 15 starts on grass, proved she hasn’t lost a step with a strong win on this track last month in the New York Stakes. That race’s 1 3/16-mile distance was a little further than this one’s 1 1/8-mile distance but similar enough, and she won her only race at this distance since being imported to the United States in the summer of 2022 when she ran in the 2023 Modesty Stakes (G3T) last May. In the New York Stakes, Didia posted an Equibase Speed Index of 113, just two points off her career high and the best of any horse in the field this year. Jose Ortiz is riding a New York win, as well as a Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes (G2T) win in January, and this mare is back on Diana, so the chances of her repeating her performance from a month ago look pretty good.
Neecie Marie started 11th of 13 in the New York Stakes then showed a great kick, moving from 10th to fifth after the half-mile, then from fourth to second in the stretch. Neecie Marie had previously returned from a five-and-a-half-month break to win the Beaugay Stakes (G3T), beating Whitebeam by a neck and earning 103 ESF. Improving to 111 ESF in New York, the model suggests Neecie Marie will go one better in her third start after a break, and considering she is only a four-year-old, she certainly has room to improve on that record. Neecie Marie could therefore have a surprise hit in this race, especially as she may be overlooked by bookmakers who will be looking towards horses that have won their most recent races and horses trained by Chad Brown, which she is not.
Whitebeam and Chili Flag finished second and first respectively in the Just a Game Stakes, run over a mile on the Saratoga turf. Both are trained by Chad Brown, who also fields Coppice, Gina Romantica and Fluffy Socks. Whitebeam won this race last year with 113 ESF, the same figure Didia achieved when winning the New York Stakes last month. However, in the Just a Game, which took place on the same day as the New York, Whitebeam only achieved 96 ESF, not good enough to win this race if repeated. On the other hand, she achieved 102 ESF when beaten by Neecie Marie by a neck in the Beaugay Stakes in May, and she is also making her third start after a five-month break, so there is still room for improvement. This is especially true because prior to her 2023 win at Diana, Whitebeam had only achieved 87 ESF when winning the Gallorette Stakes before improving to 113 in her third start after a break, similar to what she would achieve at Diana.
Chili Flag has won five of her last eight races since last summer, including three straight graded races. She won the Honey Fox Stakes (G3T) in March by 104 ESF before improving to 109 ESF when she won the Distaff Turf Mile in May. She won 97 ESF when she won Just a Game on the same day Didia won 113 ESF when she won at New York last month on this track. All three of her recent wins have come at the mile, and the only time she has run that distance, she has lost by a small margin. That doesn’t mean she can’t win the race, but the mile may be a distance she prefers to this 1 1/8-mile race.
Rest of the group (with best Equibase Speed Index in a representative race): Coppice (109), Evvie Jets (112), Fluffy Socks (112), Gina Romantica (118), Mission of Joy (118), Moira (120). Venti Valentine (95), to run if the race moves to the main track.
Winning candidates in order of preference/probability:
Didia
Marie’s niece
Whitebeam
Chili flag
