Decisive Turkish elections on Sunday made it clear that people’s faith in the country’s electoral system remains strong and that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, remains a formidable political force, even though he failed to win the round. head.
a flow likely to be held on May 28 after preliminary results show Mr. Erdogan with 49.4% of the vote and his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with 45%, according to state news agency Anadolu. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Türkiye for 20 years, appears to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term.
The election is closely watched around the world to see how it could determine the future course of a key NATO ally with many diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular concern is the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who often leaves Western partners, including the United States, confused and frustrated, and faces growing discontent amid inflation. high and the destruction of the government. earthquake in february killed more than 50,000 people in southern Türkiye.
Before the vote, most polls showed Mr Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed coalition of six opposition parties, with a slight lead. But preliminary results show Erdogan’s long-term appeal and influence.
Here are some key points:
The first flow of Türkiye
This was the first election in Turkish history where no presidential candidate won a majority of votes in the first round. That ushered in a complicated two-week period during which the candidates would go all out to entice more voters to their side.
Sunday’s election was the country’s second since a 2017 referendum supported by Mr. Erdogan changed Türkiye from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. Mr. Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, completely and by a considerable margin.
However, his inability to do so this time clearly shows that he has lost some support.
Erdogan has the advantage
Mr. Erdogan seems to have an advantage over Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just below the majority. The removal of the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, left 5.2% of the voters who chose him, many of them from the right, contested. Most of them are likely to choose Mr. Erdogan.
During the pre-election period, Erdogan is comfortable exploiting state resources to improve their chances, raise civil servants’ wages and the national minimum wage, and relax other government spending in an effort to protect citizens from the immediate effects of high inflation . He can deploy more such measures between now and the end of the day.
Also helping Mr Erdogan to make his point was that his party showed strength in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time.
Preliminary results show that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies will hold a majority in the 600-seat parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the effective functioning of the state.
For his part, Mr Kilicdaroglu had predicted he would win the vote, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country. “
Turkish people’s confidence in elections remains high
Across Türkiye and in Turkish communities abroad, the vast majority of 64 million eligible voters have spoken out. Some had to wait in long lines and return to earthquake-stricken neighborhoods to do what many see as a national duty.
Although the Supreme Electoral Council, which oversees elections, has yet to release official numbers, Anadolu reports that turnout has exceeded 88%. This is significantly higher than the 66.6% turnout rate in the 2020 US presidential election.
Such high numbers are not unusual in Türkiye.
In the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, about 85 percent of voters voted. And since 1983, voter turnout in any election — including for mayor and city council — has never dropped below 74 percent.
Many political scientists do not consider Turkey a pure democracy, largely due to the immense power of the president and his ability to shape the political playing field ahead of the vote.
But the Turks still take elections very seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was ready to face a flight if necessary.
“In my political life, I have always respected your decisions,” he said. “I expect equal democratic maturity from everyone.”
Nationalism seems to prevail
Turkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Erdogan’s decision to step up nationalist rhetoric campaigning seems to have paid off, both for him and his conservative parliamentary coalition.
During the election campaign, Mr. Erdogan had a battleship dock in the center of Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, even declaring on the eve of the election that President Biden is trying to overthrow him.
Erdogan and members of his party have also publicly accused the opposition of collaborating with terrorists because they have the backing of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or collaborating with Kurdish fighters, who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.
Mr. Ogan, the third-place candidate, also spoke of prioritizing ways to send home millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition for its support for the Kurds. In a vote, the candidate who espouses nationalist views more effectively is likely to win more Ogan supporters.
