The final standings of the College Football Playoff will be announced on Sunday.
The 2021 college football season is full of unexpected disturbances and coach moves, but the playoff picture has been in the spotlight. With conference championship week here, there are some intriguing playoff scenarios.
The four championship games will help to clear that picture. Here are the games to watch:
- Big 12: Oklahoma State vs Baylor, 12 p.m. (ABC)
- SECOND: Alabama vs. Georgia, 4 p.m. (CBS)
- AAC: Houston vs. Cincinnati, 4 p.m. (ABC)
- Big Ten: Iowa vs. Michigan, 8 p.m. (FOX)
THAN: Option vs Spread for Champion Week
Those games will help the pieces fit. Here’s a look at the different scenarios that could unfold based on the results:
College Rugby Playoff Situations
Playoff scenario #1: Challenging
– Oklahoma State beat Baylor
– Georgia beat Alabama
– Cincinnati beat Houston
– Michigan beat Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Oklahoma (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
In this scenario, we assume that Alabama’s two losing sides will not be discussed. Oklahoma State could claim the spot as the Cowboys will have a streak of wins over top 10 opponents over the past two weeks and a convention championship. Notre Dame will also be considered here based on strong play since the Cincinnati loss. Was Brian Kelly’s decision to leave LSU part of this decision? That shouldn’t happen, but the CFP committee made a suggestion by placing the Cowboys ahead of the Irish this week.
THAN: Brian Kelly Won’t Coach ND If It Makes Playoffs
Playoff scenario #2: TV-exclusive playoff match
– Baylor beat Oklahoma State
– Alabama beat Georgia
– Houston beat Cincinnati
– Michigan beat Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Notre Dame Cathedral (January 11)
Can you imagine? The conference championships created chaos that knocked the Cowboys and Bearcats down. Alabama won, and met Notre Dame in last year’s semi-final rematch with an interim coach. Michigan takes on Georgia in a battle between two blue bloodlines that want to end a prolonged drought in the national championship. These are four of the top revenue generating schools. The ratings will be huge, but who is the Irish coach?
THAN: College football playoff rankings update
Playoff scenario #3: Bama wins a bit
— BangOklahoma beat Baylor
—Alabama defeats Georgia
—Cincinnati beat Houston
—Michigan defeats Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0) or the State of Oklahoma (January 12)
It’s the same board. Alabama, Michigan, and Georgia will be the locks, and Cincinnati fans will have to break a sweat when hit by the State of Oklahoma. We still think the Bearcats keep their place, and you get David vs. Goliath vs. Crimson Tide vs. Bearcats.
Playoff scenario #4: Bama wins big
– Oklahoma State beat Baylor
– Alabama beat Georgia
– Cincinnati beat Houston
– Michigan beat Iowa
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Oklahoma (12-1), Georgia (12-1) or Notre Dame (11-1)
Let’s say Alabama beat Georgia in one of the SEC’s patented championship matches, like a 38-7 annihilation. That’s unlikely, it could knock the Bulldogs out if Oklahoma State impresses in the Big 12 championship. Georgia’s resume isn’t exactly filled with quality wins. Kentucky (9-3) and Clemson (9-3) are the best opponents it faces. It at least generates a huge argument for that fourth place.
Playoff scenario #5: Group 12 is annoying
– Baylor beat Oklahoma State
– Georgia beat Alabama
– Cincinnati beat Houston
– Michigan beat Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
This will cause the Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC to be dropped from the CFP. It’s two-thirds of the Union and a Power 5 conference is losing Oklahoma and Texas. Giving a fourth playoff spot to an independent SEC team or losing two will only make those calls the noisiest. Will the committee hold a rematch against Alabama? It could happen if the SEC championship game was an instant classic. The Irish, even without Brian Kelly, are the better bet here.
THAN: Shading predictions include title game Georgia-Michigan
Playoff scenario #6: UC loses
– Oklahoma State beat Baylor
– Georgia beat Alabama
– Houston beat Cincinnati
– Michigan beat Iowa
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Oklahoma (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
4. Oklahoma (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1) or Alabama (11-2)
Take that, Group 5. That leaves two spots open for the State of Oklahoma, Notre Dame and, yes, Alabama. The Cowboys will likely take the number 3 spot in this scenario, and Notre Dame will slip in the game against Georgia.
Playoff scenario #7: Michigan (and Confederacy) lose
– Oklahoma State beat Baylor
– Georgia beat Alabama
– Cincinnati beat Houston
– Iowa beat Michigan
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Cincinnati (13-0)
3. Oklahoma (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1), Iowa (11-2) or Alabama (11-2)
4. Oklahoma (12-1), Notre Dame (11-1), Iowa (11-2) or Alabama (11-2)
Who wants a two-game losing Hawkeyes team in the CFP? Iowa is ranked at number 13, so that would be a monstrous leap. We still think the Cowboys and Irish will be the teams here, but this scenario would eliminate the Big Ten, ACC, and Pac-12. Remember, Iowa athletic director Gary Barta is the committee chairman.
Playoff scenario #8: Volatility SEC and Big Ten
– Oklahoma State beat Baylor
– Alabama beat Georgia
– Cincinnati beat Houston
—I beat Michigan
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Cincinnati (13-0)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Oklahoma (January 12) or Notre Dame (January 11)
We return to the Oklahoma State-Notre Dame debate here, and most of these scenarios make that debate a reality. The Georgia-Cincinnati rematch will be fun with the Bearcats being the higher seed.
Playoff scenario #9: We want an 8-team playoff right now!
– Baylor beat Oklahoma State
– Alabama beat Georgia
– Cincinnati beat Houston
– Iowa beat Michigan
1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Georgia (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Notre Dame Cathedral (January 11)
In this scenario, in theory, Cincinnati could lose and still have a place to go based on a head-to-head victory over Notre Dame. But the problem here is that four Power 5 conferences are left behind. The champions will be all two or three losing teams in Iowa (11-2), Wake Forest/Pitt (11-2), Oregon (11-2) or Utah (10-3) and Baylor (11- 2) .
Playoff scenario number 10: WTH just happened
– Baylor beat Oklahoma State
– Georgia beat Alabama
– Houston beat Cincinnati
– Iowa beat Michigan
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Notre Dame Cathedral (January 11)
3. Baylor (11-2)
4. Iowa (11-2), Cincinnati (12-1), Alabama (11-2), Wake Forest or Pitt (11-2), Oregon (11-2)
This is really the craziest scenario as it would create a scramble for three vacancies. Notre Dame could well jump to 2nd place because the Bearcats won’t have a convention championship with a Team of 5 schedule. We’re pretty sure Baylor will take the 3rd spot, but look at the mess underlying them. This is also the only way ACC and Pac-12 can participate in the final discussion. How did the committee arrange that mess? They will probably take Iowa, the Big Ten champion. So who’s ready for Georgia-Iowa and Notre Dame-Baylor?
