Essay by Eric Worrall
It seems unfortunate that no one is running some numbers BEFORE making promises and spending billions of dollars on an energy transition that we don’t have the resources to deliver.
Lack of copper keeps energy green, technology projects grounded
According to S&P
Brandon Vigliarolo
Friday, July 15, 2022 // 17:00 UTC…
Copper plays a very important role in the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy, a report from S&P Global, worldwide demand is likely to double by 2035 from 25 million tons to 50; Regardless of the scenario, S&P said it is unlikely the world will be able to respond.
“The record high demand will be maintained and continue to grow to 53 million tonnes by 2050 – more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021,” S&P Global said. speak.
From petroleum to minerals
In a 2021 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) described a new energy model gradually replace fossil fuels – minerals, the most important of which is copper.
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Internal combustion vehicles of all sizes have about 24 kg of copper in their powertrain, the report’s data shows. The internal combustion swap for fuel cells resulted in a slight increase in copper, but the fuel cell swap for batteries is where things start to really scale. The lightweight battery-powered EV (BEV) drivetrain requires 60kg of copper. The medium BEV needs 139kg, while the heavyweight BEV needs 425kg of copper.
The obvious solution to this inevitable problem is to open more copper mines. That will certainly help make up upcoming shortfalls, but the benefit is that those offsets will come too late.
“Currently, it takes an average of 16 years to develop a new mine, meaning a new mine asking for permission today won’t be productive in time to meet the spike in demand.S&P said, citing an IEA study.
S&P data shows that replacing other metals – like aluminum – and recycling copper will also not be enough to meet expected demand.
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Read more: https://www.theregister.com/2022/07/15/netzero_emissions_copper/
The S&P report is available here. The first major finding in the executive summary says it all; “Copper – “electroelectric metal” – is essential to all energy transition plans. However, the potential supply-demand gap is expected to be huge once the transition takes place. Replacing and recycling will not be enough to meet the needs of electric vehicles (EVs), electric infrastructure, and renewable power generation. Unless the massive new supply arrives online in a timely manner, The Net-Zero Emission target by 2050 will be short-circuited and out of reach.“
It is clear that it is possible that some unexpected advance will greatly increase the amount of coins available, in the same sense that I could win the lottery. But I do not hold my breath waiting for any event.
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