By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Through the years, the $1
million Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar has been won by some of the best horses
in racing. Just look at the last decade of winners: champions Shared Belief
(2014), Beholder (2015), California Chrome (2016), Accelerate (2018), Maximum
Security (2020), and Flightline (2022) have all won the 1 1/4-mile dirt prize.
Saturday’s renewal of the
Pacific Classic lacks a standout star on paper, but the 11-horse field makes
for a great betting race. And who knows? There might be a future champion in
the entries.
It’s been nine years since
Shared Belief became the latest three-year-old to win the Pacific Classic; the
last eight editions have been won by older horses. But that may change on
Saturday.
The older horses in the 2023
Pacific Classic aren’t the toughest bunch on paper. #5 Defunded (4-1) is the most accomplished, having won the 2022
Awesome Again S. (G1) and 2022 Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) plus a couple of smaller
graded stakes. But racing 1 1/4 miles seems to stretch the limits of Defunded’s
stamina; he’s 1-for-3 at this distance and came home slowly each time. In the Hollywood
Gold Cup, he had to work hard to beat #10
Piroli (20-1) by one length, and Piroli returned to finish fourth in an
$80,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar.
#4 Tripoli (20-1)
was an upset winner of the 2021 Pacific Classic, but he’s hasn’t cracked the
trifecta in a graded stakes since then, most recently coming home fifth in the
San Diego H. (G2) at Del Mar. Speaking of the San Diego, Defunded finished a
subpar fourth in that 1 1/16-mile contest behind stretch-running #8 Senor Buscador (10-1), who
previously ran fifth in the Hollywood Gold Cup. The San Diego runner-up was #7 Slow Down Andy (8-1), a capable
competitor with tactical speed, but one possibly unsuited to racing 1 1/4
miles. He’s lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line in each of his
last six route races, and those were all 1 1/8 miles or less.
Former claimer #6 Order and Law (30-1) is on the rise, but his upset victory
in the Cougar II S. (G3) at Del Mar came racing 1 1/2 miles against easier
competition. #2 Katonah (20-1) has
won back-to-back starts, including the Pleasanton Mile racing one mile and 70
yards at Pleasanton, but he’s stepping up sharply in class and distance and isn’t
bred to relish 1 1/4 miles.
#3 Stilleto Boy (8-1)
offers some appeal at a price, considering he rallied to defeat Defunded in the
1 1/4-mile Santa Anita H. (G1) during the winter. He also boasts excellent
third-place finishes in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Oaklawn H. (G2) on his
2023 record. If you’re willing to forgive a sixth-place finish against a deep
field in the Stephen Foster (G1) two months ago, Stilleto Boy is playable.
But I’m taking a different
route. Rather than support the older horses, I’m going to back a three-year-old
to take home top honors.
The obvious choice is #1 Geaux Rocket Ride (5-2), the morning
line favorite after pouncing to victory in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell S. (G1) at
Monmouth Park last time out. After settling as many as 3 1/2 lengths off the
early pace, Geaux Rocket Ride forged clear down the homestretch to beat
Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage by 1 3/4 lengths, earning a career-best 100
Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against the Pacific Classic field.
But can Haskell third-place
finisher #9 Arabian Knight (3-1)
turn the tables? Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (who has won
the Pacific Classic a record-equaling six times), Arabian Knight started his
career on a high note, smashing a seven-furlong maiden special weight at
Keeneland with a 104 Brisnt Speed rating before wiring the 1 1/16-mile
Southwest S. (G3) at Oaklawn Park by 5 1/2 lengths over future West Virginia
Derby (G3) winner Red Route One.
Unfortunately, Arabian
Knight went to the sidelines after the Southwest and didn’t run again until the
Haskell. Stepping into the Grade 1 ranks off a six-month layoff was bound to be
a difficult task, and Arabian Knight wasn’t helped by getting caught up in a
speed duel. The opening quarter-mile elapsed in a stiff :22.80, at which point
Arabian Knight was racing in second place by half a length while three lengths
clear of the rest.
Arabian Knight continued to
duel through splits of :47.11 and 1:11.65, all while racing wide. Under the
circumstances, he did well to fight on and finish third, beaten 3 3/4 lengths.
He’s trained strongly since the Haskell and capped off his Pacific Classic preparations
with a fast five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Del Mar, so I’m optimistic this $2.3
million auction acquisition will move forward in his second start off the
layoff and turn the tables on Geaux Rocket Ride.
I also have to highlight #11 Skinner (10-1), the final sophomore
in the Pacific Classic field, as a live longshot. After missing a couple of
starts due to illness and disappointing training, the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
third-place finisher came back with a solid run in the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos
Derby, rallying from behind a modest pace to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths.
The son of Curlin still has upside and is eligible to rally late and pick up a
piece of the purse.
Selections
1st: Arabian Knight
2nd: Geaux Rocket Ride
3rd: Stilleto Boy
4th: Skinner
Now it’s your turn! Who do
you like in the Pacific Classic?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there’s a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
