Why wiping out Hong Kong’s protests could cost China a generation in Taiwan

Less than 8% of respondents support “reunification” with mainland China, while most want to maintain the status quo – an agreement by which Taiwan remains self-governing without a formal declaration of independence.

Samuel Li, a student in the southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung, said Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong has made him increasingly distrustful of the Communist regime.

“It reinforces my thinking about the Chinese government that they don’t really do what they say. They always break their promises,” he said. “I really wish that Taiwan could exist as it is today.”

Tensions escalate

Mainland China and Taiwan have been administered separately since the end of the Chinese civil war more than 70 years ago, when defeated Nationalists withdrew to the island.

Taiwan is now a thriving multi-party democracy but the ruling Communist Party of China on the mainland continues to regard the island as an integral part of its territory – though it has never controlled it. it.

Today, relations between Taipei and Beijing are at their lowest point in decades. In October, the Chinese military sent a record number of warplanes into the airspace around Taiwan while Chinese diplomats and state media warned of a possible invasion. unless the island is within the boundaries of Beijing.

But it doesn’t always turn out this way. In fact, for nearly 30 years, the possibility of conflict seemed far-fetched. Beginning in the early 1990s, many Taiwanese companies moved production to the mainland, where labor was cheaper, and the government craved foreign investment to spur economic growth.

The relationship continued to flourish after the turn of the century. Taiwanese pop music and television became hugely popular on the mainland, and Chinese tourists flocked to visit Taiwan, promoted by state media as China’s “treasure island”.

In an interview with CNN last month, Tsai said the threat from Beijing was growing “every day”.

“China’s plan for the region is very different from what it used to be,” she said. “It was more ambitious, more expansionist, and so what was acceptable to them then may not be acceptable to them now.”

Speaking to CNN in October, Tsai said her citizens rejected the model. “The people of Taiwan have made it clear that they do not accept ‘One country, two systems’ as a formula that can solve cross-strait issues,” she said.

Austin Wang, an assistant professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who specializes in Taiwanese politics, said Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong has played an important role in the way Taiwan’s younger generation views Taiwan. received in China.

“In the past, many Taiwanese were satisfied with ‘One Country, Two Systems’ because China promised that people’s daily lives would not change,” he said. But the situation in Hong Kong shows otherwise. opposite”.

“I think it’s a matter of trust. When Taiwanese consider China to be unreliable, all the promises or favors China makes are discounted.”

Economic interdependence

But despite rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait in recent years, neither Beijing nor Taipei have been able to completely sever ties.

Last year, mainland China was Taiwan’s largest trading partner and accounted for 26% of the island’s total trade, according to Taiwan’s Foreign Trade Bureau.

Meanwhile, mainland companies are depending on Taiwan – especially Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) – for their ultra-advanced semiconductor chips as China competes with the US in the war. technology race.

While the world’s attention is often focused on Beijing’s growing military threat to Taipei, Wang said many Taiwanese also realize the island’s economy depends on the relationship. its with the mainland.

“Taiwanese people really realize the importance of cross-strait economic cooperation and Taiwan’s economy is heavily dependent on China,” he said.

“However, the people of Taiwan are also cautious about the extent to which China can exploit this dependence for political gain.”

“Regional economic integration is an unstoppable global trend. If we don’t face this and join the process, it’s only a matter of time before we are left out of the competition. “, Ma said.

Lin, then a graduate student at National Taiwan University, later led the 2014 Sunflower Movement, which successfully forced Ma’s government to cancel the trade deal. The three-week protest saw student activists occupy Taiwan’s legislative building in the island’s biggest protest in decades.

Today, Lin regularly advises President Tsai on important policies. He said that Taiwan should reduce its economic dependence on China by building more partnerships with the United States, Japan and the rest of the world.

“We should know that China is a country that often uses economic means to interfere in the politics of other countries,” he said. “We will continue to interact economically with China in the future, but we must also keep our distance to minimize the impact of China’s supply chain restructuring or internal turmoil on Taiwan. .”