PREFACE: There has been a lot of back-and-forth discussion on the subject, perhaps so much that it has become tiresome. A lot of back-and-forth motion can be avoided if the so-called “Pollack limit” is simply called a curve. Therefore, this will absolutely be the last essay published at WUWT on this issue. No objection, no“yes but”, no Exception; My “limit” has been exceeded. Take it to direct email or peer review. – Anthony Watts
By Chistopher Monckton of Brenchley
Pollock’s limits on the amount of wind or solar power that can be installed in a given grid without disproportionately increasing costs and waste have attracted interest in many areas. , especially among grid operators.
Willis Eschenbach, contributed an interesting article in which he shows that the Falkland Islands, Denmark, Lithuania, Ireland and Uruguay are generating wind power in excess of what appears to be the global average power factor. is 26%.
However, the grid is local and the power factors for weather-dependent renewables also vary from place to place, depending on regional weather. Therefore, it is not appropriate to seek to apply the global average wind power factor.
The Falkland Islands (I was there) have ideal conditions for windmill power generation. I don’t know what the grid power factor for the Islands is, but it would exceed 26%.
Willis also proposed Ireland as an example against Pollock’s limitations. He cites BP’s estimate that Ireland’s wind power factor (also its Pollock limit) averages 27% and suggests that, following recent increases in installed wind capacity, wind energy is closing contribute about 5% more to the grid output than the corresponding Pollock limit.
However, the grid operator puts the multi-year average capacity factor at 28.5%, indicating that the overcapacity over the past year or two is only 3.5%. One reason why it is possible (although extremely uneconomical) to generate above the Pollock limit is that in some years – 2022 is a prominent example – the weather is not favorable for wind and solar generation. God.
Another effect on the Irish grid in recent years has been frequent power outages due to heat generation, caused by gusts of wind and the consequent inability to maintain an adequate heat supply. In 2021-2, the heat delivery capacity is 12% lower than the usual 77%.
Furthermore, as I have pointed out, even when on-grid wind or solar energy approaches but does not exceed the Pollock limit, costly and wasteful over-generation will occur at times strong wind and sun and low demand. A fortiori, Wasteful over-generation occurs when the Pollock limit is breached, and costs, waste, and grid instability increase rapidly as the installed capacity exceeds the Pollock limit.
To be sure, EIRgrid has been fulfilling orders with zero waste on a massive scale in recent years. Willis’ initial reaction was that the consumer wouldn’t have to pay any costs. Subsidized farmers, however, will pass the cost of downtime to their customers or have priced such stop orders within their current pricing structure. Ultimately, it is the consumer who pays.
Likewise, the EIRgrid is connected to the UK’s much larger grid and can power it with excess energy, albeit often at a hefty loss. In this respect, the UK grid is operating as if it were a backup battery for the Irish grid.
However, Willis also fairly concludes that there seems to be evidence of an asymptote above which the addition of wind or solar power does not increase the renewable energy penetration rate commensurately. . Now I turn to that question.
Let me simplify the inference of the Pollock limit, starting with some definitions.
Average grid power factor z of wind or solar energy is the ratio of the electricity produced by that source in average annual weather conditions over many years to its nameplate capacity in the grid.
Grid penetration coefficient f is the fraction of the average annual total electricity production over many years actually contributed by wind or solar power to the grid.
Mesh penetration coefficient q of wind or sun is a multiple of z required to achieve the net penetration coefficient fof that source. These definitions lead to the equation
Grid penetration coefficient freach the economic maximum fmaximumthe maximum value of fachievable without creating wasted redundancies, when there is enough wind or solar energy to supply the entire grid output: that is, when q= 1.
Where q = 1, as the equation shows, fmaximum = z. Therefore, the economic maximum grid penetration coefficient fmaximum for wind or solar power generation is equal to the power factor of that source z on that grid (e.g. 25-30% for typical in-grid wind generation in Western Europe).
penetration factor qto demonstrate z= 0.25 and f= 0.15, 0.25, 0.35
Above the Pollock . limit zany wind or solar capacity added to the grid causes excess power generation (see diagram above), which must be exported to neighboring grids (usually at a loss) ) or prevented by capacity-limiting payments (expensive and market-distorting) or order shutdown (wasting capital invested in potentially violating Pollock) unless used to backup by static batteries (expensive and, on a global scale, impossible) or by generating “green” hydrogen (which is extremely expensive, especially thanks to the large second-loss according to the law of thermodynamics) in the conversion of electricity to hydrogen and then back to electricity, and in the use of rare and expensive iridium and platinum in the oxy-hydrogen barrier).
Then in the Irish grid, with multi-year average wind power factor z = 28.5% (Ireland grid wind Pollock limit), economic maximum grid penetration fmaximum for wind power is also 28.5%. Producing beyond that limit has resulted in great costs.
Most grid regulators know by experience the long-term average grid capacity factors for wind and solar on their grid, based on average weather patterns. in their area. Therefore, there is no need for complicated calculations on their part. In Ireland, penetration beyond the Pollock limit would be disproportionately wasteful and costly.
Wind and solar power have become disproportionately wasteful and expensive. Since back-up heat for all unreliable equipment must always spin at a wasteful and inefficient spinning reserve, if windmills and solar panels were to be completely removed, the capacity would be reduced. Existing heat will be capable of generating the entire grid power output. Accordingly, the full cost of wind and solar energy is an unwanted and unnecessary net addition to the grid, and a crude imposition on the grid’s less fortunate customers. electricity.
For this reason, it is doubly important that the Pollock limits be widely understood and respected by the grid authorities, so that the already extremely wasteful wind and solar energy do not throw countries whose governments were stupidly captured by the net-zero mania to the point of total bankruptcy.
Take England. Thanks to the Thatcher effect, by the end of her term, inward foreign direct investment had exceeded the total FDI of the rest of Europe’s autocracies.political commissar. However, electricity prices (which are higher in the UK than anywhere else on Earth) are part of the reason why foreign companies no longer see us as a good place to invest. Manufacturing, as a share of GDP, quickly collapsed to just 8%, and the last few heavy industries still standing begged for subsidies to keep them here or simply is walking with a cane and running to China, which has announced that it is about to double its coal-fired power generation capacity.
Now, power generation companies, which often hold a mixture of unreliable heat and power sources, will be happy to hide the existence of Pollock limits, because they benefit greatly from the cost of electricity. Electricity charges go up wildly, through the stupidity of the network. -Governments are not obsessed, they get away with just causing trouble for the black people.
However, grid regulators, although in a new environment of intolerance and censorship they dare not say so publicly, are privately concerned about the impact of nut zero not only on electricity prices to end users but also to the increasingly difficult task of trying to stabilize the grid as the possibility of unreliable weather-dependent disruption of Pollock is added.
For authorities everywhere, Pollock’s limits will be a revelation and a lifesaver. Now, operators will be able to tell their governments, “Enough!”
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