Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship? Evaluating Collin Morikawa odds, Bryson DeChambeau tops the rankings

LOUISVILLE – Saturday at Valhalla Golf Club was exciting. After Friday’s bizarre round that began with the world No. 1 in jail and ended with him shooting a 66, crowds flocked to the 2024 PGA Championship to support Scottie Scheffler. What they received was his The first round exceeded par in 266 days when he withdrew from the controversy, but the consolation prize was a big one: One of the The rankings are more aggregated in some recent majors.

At the end of the third round, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele tied for the lead at 15 under, but there were 13 players within 5 shots of the lead. That’s a big number, especially on a golf course that’s playing near average in the 60s. In other words, expect fireworks until the last shot falls on Sunday.

With Scheffler out after a 73, and Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy too far back to seriously compete in the final round, let’s rank the golfers from most likely to win on Sunday to least likely to win on Sunday. most likely.

1. Collin Morikawa (-15)

Odds: +240 — The two-time major champion will attempt to win three titles in his first 18 starts, which is quite an achievement. historic pace ahead of Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Morikawa is the second-worst pitcher among those currently in the top eight, which is encouraging as it relates to his prospects for a win on Sunday.

He will have to do it with driving precision as he is almost in the final distance. When comparing how Bryson DeChambeau plays, it shows how many different ways there are to win a professional tournament. Morikawa will have to continue hitting the fairways on Sunday, but the conditions at Valhalla – a target golf course with green darts – suit him perfectly. He’ll be tied for third on Sunday, although what’s worth noting is the fact that his short game is unrealistic as he’s fighting 15-for-19. That’s hard to maintain over 72 holes.

2. Xander Schauffele (-15)

Odds: +260 — Here’s a stat that surprised me: Morikawa was 1-of-4 (.250) when finishing with a 54-hole lead as a pro, while Schauffele was 3-of-9 (.334 ). This was a really interesting spot for Schauffele, who seemed uncomfortable in the front. It would be beneficial for him to be placed next to someone of equal talent when they enter a course where they know they have to burn to win. Schauffele sometimes has trouble understanding the rhythm of a major, so not having to judge when to press and when to lie back — because everyone will be shooting all day — is really going to beneficial to him. If Schauffele is going to win a major – and he will eventually – this might be how he will do it.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (-13)

Odds: +600 — The 2020 US Open champion is playing some of the best major golf of his life and he made a crucial eagle on Saturday the 18th to reach one of the final matches on Sunday . He leads the field in driving distance and is fifth in strokes gained off the tee so far. It’s a great layup for him, and even if he misses the fairways – as long as he doesn’t miss them too far – his speed can neutralize some of the thicker rough in Valhalla. He will win or will come very close to winning.

4. Viktor Hovland (-13)

Odds: +700 — Did anyone really see this coming? Hovland was basically great for the first time in 2024. This was a terrible year for someone who was probably the best player in the world in the last six months of 2023. Hovland had no top 15 and only achieved 0.66 strokes. his worst in the last six years. But in one week he was reunited with trainer Joe Mayo, Hovland has flourished and is now seventh in approach play. He now finds himself in the same position as he was a year ago, right on the brink of winning the PGA Championship. I don’t think his swing changes will come under the pressure of a Sunday major, but he’s definitely moving in the right direction.

5. Sahith Theegala (-14)

Odds: +650 — Do I want Sahith Theegala to win this major championship? I do. It will be incredible if he electrifies Louisville on Sunday and brings it home with his first major. Do I really believe that will happen? I’m not. Theegala is at the top of this pitch, and he’s not driving it as well as he needs to to maintain the lead and win on Sunday. However, he will empty the tank to win, which will be fascinating to watch and experience in the final round.

6. Shane Lowry (-13)

Odds: +1200 — It’s not that difficult to monitor a master heater as he found on Saturday with his 62 with another great round the next day (albeit a tough one) but more than that Lowry is the worst player from tee to green in the current top 10 — and it’s not even close yet. come close. Sure, he could turn the lights out two rounds in a row over the weekend and win this tournament, but there’s not much historical preference.

7. Justin Thomas (-10)

Odds: +6000 — Normally I wouldn’t put him in this position because he sits so far apart – eight behind Morikawa and Schauffele. Still, Thomas has won the PGA from seven deep (!) over the past two years, and he’s also leading the field from tee to green this week despite being almost last in the putting. There were 64 words written on it and he knew it.

“Everyone has a scenario running in their head that they have the ability to win the tournament, but how that happens, you don’t know,” Thomas said. “I feel like I’ve done the most important part of putting myself at least within striking distance and I’ll need a really good striker tomorrow to do it my way. But I feel like I’m fully capable. about the way I’m playing and it would be great to get a chance in the back nine.”

8. Justin Rose (-12)

Odds: +3500 — Look at all the reasons above for Lowry but then include the fact that Rose counterattacked his Ryder Cup teammate. When Lowry finished Saturday’s match, Rose gave him a big hug to celebrate his best 60 in the third round. It was probably the most memorable moment they had on the 18th pitch this week (albeit quite exciting!).

9. Robert MacIntyre (-12)

Odds: +3500 — Valhalla doesn’t exactly scream “Bob MacIntyre will win his first major,” but here we are. He’s been playing great from tee to green this week and is doing it right off the tee. It’s hard to see him passing all the horses in front of him, but at least he’s put himself in a situation where it’s conceivable that he’ll do something silly and take the big horse’s lead. my fairy.


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