By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Six months after the series began, Road to the Kentucky Derby 2022-23 ended with a $400,000 Lexington S. (G3) run on Saturday in Keeneland.
The 1 1/16 mile competition awards Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points 20-8-6-4-2 to the top five finishers. That’s not a lot of points, but it could be enough to change the Road to Kentucky Derby rankings and safely land a bubble horse in the Top 20.
That’s hope for #6 Disarm (7-2), who — surprisingly — wasn’t the morning favorite to win Lexington. There are a number of possible win contenders in this competitive arena, but if the 7-2 odds on Disarm hold, I’ll be keen to take advantage.
Disarm has shown promise in two starts as a teenager. Gun Runner’s beautifully bred son debuted in the 5 1/2 feathers special weight class at Churchill Downs and went out of his way to finish third behind Mo Strike, the next winner. according to Sanford (G3).
Disarm then handled a special weight for seven-feathered maidens at Saratoga and regrouped from the middle pack to beat his opponents by 6 1/4 lengths. The field includes Rocket Can, future Holy Bull (G3) winner.
Disarm then gave up and didn’t run again until February 19, when he overcame a slow start to finish second in the one-mile claimant’s $100,000 grant option at Oaklawn. That effort was better than it appeared to be, as the finish line was strong and Disarm stayed in shape against a winner from start to finish.
With this thoughtful preparation, Disarm had the best performance of his career in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last week. Initial speed ratios are for pedestrians (:24.71, :49.60 and 1:14.69) and horses run 1-2-3 after the opening quarter mile (Kingsbarns, Jace’s) Road and Shopper’s Revenge) continued to finish 1-3-4.
Speed increased for the last half mile, and the only horse close to the victorious Kingsbarns was Disarm, who waited for the traffic around the far turn before speeding inward to finish second. He took some distance against Kingsbarns in the extended final to get to the finish line 3 1/2 of the way through while surging Jace’s Road 2 3/4 of the way, so whichever way you cut it… This is also a big step up from Disarm.
Running again three weeks later at Lexington is probably not the first choice for Disarm connections, but I don’t believe the quick turnaround will cause problems. The Louisiana Derby is not a taxing race from a pace perspective, so Disarm is eligible to advance in the third run of the season, especially if the initial tempo is honest. I’m optimistic that Disarm will deliver the win and qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
For second place, #5 First Mission (3-1) is the pony that I want back. Intern Brad Cox ran brilliantly on his six-long sprint debut at the Fair Grounds, coming in second less than a mile away from next grant winner Bishops Bay. Then First Mission spanned more than 1 1/16 miles and dominated a particularly maiden weight of the Fair Grounds by 6 3/4 of its length.
First Mission was bred for the long haul and has some tactical speed, so he’s counting on a smooth ride and strong finish in Lexington.
#8 Empirestrikesfast (4-1) is sure to be a popular choice following the release of Beyer and Brisnet’s crisp speed figures in the first 1 1/16 mile special weight class at Gulfstream Park last month. The winner, Dreamlike, finished in third place (with a hit in the head) in the Wood Memorial (G2) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, elevating Empirestrikesfast’s performance. But Wood Memorial isn’t the toughest race in theory, and Empirestrikesfast is facing a surprisingly deep Lexington field at the start of its second career. I wonder if this three year old gelding could be vulnerable given the relatively short price tag.
One vision that I would like to support for small awards is #9 Prairie Falcon (15-1). Curlin’s son ran well in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last month, tracking the pace before fading in the extended final to finish fourth. The winner (Tapit Trice) returns to claim the Blue Grass (G1), while the fifth-place finisher (Lord Miles) returns to claim the Wood Memorial. Prairie Hawk is coming out of a deep race and could outrun his odds under Hall of Fame racer John Velazquez.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Lexington?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
