What’s next for the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson after contract negotiations close? Options, risks and potential outcomes

OWINGS MILLION, Md. – Baltimore Raven confirmed on Friday they were unable to reach a contract extension with the midfielder Lamar Jacksonwho was not represented by an agent, put the brakes on the most famous NFL negotiations until after the season, and increased scrutiny every time Jackson was on the field.

When Jackson makes a game-winning touchdown pass, reactions will include how he increased his value and how Raven dropped the ball by not doing the expansion. When Jackson hit sales or hit big, some would argue that he should have signed a pre-season contract and that he paid millions of dollars.

“He didn’t really talk about it, so it wasn’t really a distraction,” Ravens cornered Marlon Humphrey speak.

The Ravens’ focus is on winning the AFC North and becoming the latest NFL team to go from last to first. It happened in 17 of the past 19 seasons, including last year when Cincinnati Bengals went from a four-win season to the Super Bowl.

When the season ended, Baltimore’s challenge shifted back to getting Jackson signed to a long-term contract. But in the meantime, lots of questions.

Will Jackson get a franchise card next year?

This is where Raven and Jackson are headed unless they can find a compromise, even though the two sides have been working on it for the past 20 months without an agreement.

March 7 is the deadline for teams to use the franchise card. If the parties cannot reach an agreement by then, Raven will have to use the tag on a quarterback for the first time in the franchise’s 27-year history to keep Jackson as an unrestricted free agent. . Jackson will make $45 million in 2023 if he plays under the exclusive franchise label.

This is rare territory for franchise distributors. In the previous 10 offseasons, only two were tagged: Kirk Cousin (2016 and 2017) who was with Washington at the time and Dallas’ Dak Prescott (2020 and 2021), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Prescott eventually signed a long-term extension with the Cowboys while Cousins ​​succeeded free agency and signed a landmark deal with Minnesota Vikings.

History shows that Baltimore had time to avoid booking a card for Jackson. A decade ago, midfielder Joe Flacco turned down the Ravens’ offer of a contract extension entering his fifth year, just like Jackson. After Flacco led Raven to a Super Bowl win, the team signed him to a record-setting deal 25 days later (and three days before the tag deadline).

If Raven can’t reach an agreement with Jackson by March, they know they have contractual control over Jackson for the next two seasons with the card.

How much risk does Jackson have?

Jackson admitted that it was also “a pretty big risk” last season, and anything is possible. “May God forbid the wrong thing to happen,” he said.

But in 2020, Prescott picked up a serious ankle injury while playing under the franchise and missed the final 11 games of the season. And the Cowboys still awarded him a four-year, $160 million contract for the next season.

The biggest concern was Jackson’s style of play, which included breaking long runs and dodging passers. Robert Griffin III, who was also a threatening double defender, was never the same after he injured his right knee at the end of his rookie season in 2012.

Jackson has endured throughout his first 4 seasons, despite hitting 737 NFL-high hits. The only time Jackson missed any game through injury was at the end of last season, when he was sidelined for the last four games with a bruised right ankle after backing down and throwing a pass.

The monetary gamble is this: Five quarterbacks signed with guarantees of at least $150 million since Jackson qualified for an extension. Jackson is guaranteed $23.016 million this season under his fifth-year option.

But waiting has been a win-win strategy for Jackson so far. Since he qualified for an extension last year, 5 quarterback quartets have signed deals in excess of $150 million in guarantees, and the annual average for quarterback divisions has grown from 45 million dollars (Patrick Mahomes) to $50.3 million (Aaron Rodgers).

How risky are the crows?

The only gamble not to sign Jackson before the season is top quarter value further escalate.

Based on a tweet by JacksonThe Ravens didn’t offer him a $250 million guarantee. Deshaun Watsonwho was facing 22 lawsuits at the time alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions, received $230 million in guarantees from Cleveland Browns March.

Last two-quarters of franchises sign contract extensions since Watson – Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson — both received significantly less collateral, which adds to Baltimore’s perceived argument that Watson’s deal was an outlier. Murray received $189.5 million in bail, and Wilson received $165 million.

By not reaching a permanent deal with Jackson now, Raven is essentially betting that Joe Burrow and charger’ Justin Herbert will not reset the quarter market. Both first-round picks in 2020 are eligible for renewals after this season.

Bengals and Chargers are known to be historically conservative spenders. But the Bengalis signed their last two pre-franchise deals for the extensions (Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton), and Chargers ranked fifth in cash spending this year. It wouldn’t be surprising if Burrow and/or Herbert signed a long-term contract by this time next year. The big question is whether either will beat Watson in terms of guaranteed money.

What are the chances for the Ravens to trade Jackson in the next season?

The Ravens would only consider trading with Jackson if they felt there was no chance of closing a lasting deal. It’s hard to think that Baltimore would let Jackson go in the Cousins’ path – play two seasons before letting him hit a free agency in 2025 – and be content with getting a spot at the club. third round.

This season, the Broncos traded the first two picks and two second picks to the Seahawks to get 33-year-old Russell Wilson. Imagine what Raven could get for Jackson, who doesn’t turn 26 until January 7.

Raven has one of the top NFL backups in Tyler Huntley, who nearly turned Baltimore upside down against eventual Super Bowl champions the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers last season. Huntley, 24, is a restricted free agent for next season, so the Ravens have to make a decision about him, too.

But dealing with Jackson would be an unprecedented move. There have been nine transactions involving the NFL MVP quarterback – from Roman Gabriel in 1969 to Matt Ryan this year – and no QBs are settled when they’re under 30.

Throughout the negotiations, Ravens and Jackson officials have expressed confidence that a deal will be done.

But Friday’s news means that optimism is holding for now.