The Week That Was: 2023-07-29 (July 29, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows anything about science and technology.” — Carl Sagan [H/t ASCH]
Number of the Week: 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The issues discussed this week include the following. The third of three video presentations by Paleoclimatologist Tom Gallagher is discussed. This includes a number of new topics including the climatic effects of tropospheric energy flows, clouds, oceans, the biospheres, and ultraviolet radiation. Also presented will be some doubts TWTW has about a few minor assertions by Gallagher.
The presentation by Willie Soon to DDP is discussed with emphasis on how the Maunder Minimum is defined, and what period it covers. Also, Soon covers how the Little Ice Age got its name.
Also discussed will be the research that indicates a decline in the intensity of a part of the Gulf Stream since the Little Ice Age (a slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation). Understanding ocean circulations is important to understanding climate change. The study led to foolish claims that the Gulf Stream will collapse, which would lead to Europe freezing.
US Climate Envoy John Kerry returned from China without meeting with Paramount Leader Xi Jinping. China has not embraced the goals of the UN for eliminating carbon dioxide emissions from the fossil fuels (hydrocarbons). The UN Secretary General reacted foolishly. Meanwhile Chinese scholars continue to produce studies of climate change the UN and its followers fail to consider.
The EPA has delayed its date for submission of comments on the new rules for power plants to August 8.
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Changing Climate: In his third Video on Paleoclimatology, geoscientist Tom Gallagher tries to establish the relative importance of various variables (factors) that influence and control climate. He carefully distinguishes between Chaos and Complexity. Both apply in the study of climate, but there is a difference. In general, chaos applies to short term changes, such as weather; while complexity applies to medium to long term changes, such as climate and long-term climate.
To Gallagher, in studying climate, it not appropriate to build artificial models based on assumptions (theory) without strong, long times series data from Earth’s science history. Further, we must distinguish between independent and dependent variables. According to the UN IPCC, the climate system is a coupled non-linear Chaotic system, and therefore the long-term predictions of future climate states are not possible (IPCC WG1 – Scientific Basis Chapter 14, Executive Summary).
The IPCC then proceeded to combine these “coupled non-linear Chaotic assumptions together to promote models and predict the future – based on limited knowledge – only the past 150 to 200 years. In short, the UN IPCC does study climate. But it uses models designed to study weather, a chaotic system, to project what may occur to the climate in the future, a complex system.
According to Gallagher, we can classify Climate as a function of Time and Predictability – distinguish between weather (days), climate (years), and long-term climate (thousands of years). – however, the IPCC confuses short-term, chaotic change with long-term, predictable change.
[TWTW comment: Modelers truncate weather data, then reintroduce error to develop an ensemble (band) of models. However, are the errors introduced identical to those lost when the models are truncated? How accurate are these introduced errors (called initial assumptions)?]
According to Gallagher, parameters (defined, measurable factors) associated with Weather (days) include temperature, pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, etc. – all are chaotic. Parameters associated with Climate (years) include atmospheric gases, biosystems, clouds, oceans, major asteroids, etc. In general, these are both Chaotic and / or Complex). Parameters associated with Long-term Climate (thousands of years) include Milankovitch Cycles, solar variations, plate tectonics, ocean energy systems, ozone, latitude, topography (changing Earth). In general, these are Complex). Long-term Climate has long-term recurring cycles.
Factors influencing Long-term climate must be understood and integrated before looking at short-term weather if one is predicting the future beyond a few days. These factors set the boundary conditions. This is not done well or at all by the IPCC.
A complex system is not necessarily a Chaotic System. Complex systems are highly composite, built up from very large numbers of mutually interacting subunits (that are often composites themselves) whose repeated interactions result in rich, collective behavior that feeds back into the behavior of the individual parts.
[TWTW Comment: the IPCC has put the cart before the horse – trying to use a poorly understood chaotic system to describe a complex longer-term one.]
Complex systems can survive the removal of parts by adapting to the change such as volcanic eruption & or impact from an asteroid. [The Westerhold report which presents great data from the deep-sea floor fails to do this]
Complex systems are dominant and embedded in long-term data [You cannot understand a complex system by using models built for a chaotic one] To be robust systems, especially chaotic systems, must include redundancy if it exists.
Accurate long-term time-series data can separate the variable types [such as solar variation, Milankovitch cycles, etc.] These include co-dependent variables that co-vary with climate (shown in part 1). Examples include solar irradiance, temperature, ocean currents, and the energy system of the Earth including water vapor and ozone.
Independent variables that do not co-vary with climate include human emissions of CO2. If used in modelling of natural complex systems, independent variables can create chaotic conditions if they are used where they do not exist. Examples of independent non-linear variables include saturation of CO2, such as IR absorption ability which declines with higher concentrations added by humans.
Gallagher states, from Part 2, that conversions of CO2 to carbonic acid and bicarbonate do not act as greenhouse gases at “Earth Glow” (Stefan-Boltzmann radiation) wavelengths. Here TWTW raises a minor objection. Falling rain may include carbonic acid, but atmospheric CO2 does not necessarily include carbonic acid.
Clouds are a chaotically fractal and interestingly biogenic. Biologic systems adapt to and depend on carbonic acid, H2O, and solar intensity.
In discussing the Earth’s Energy Budget, Gallagher states that energy flow from the Earth must equal the flow into the Earth and from the Earth. That the tropics take in more energy, thus we have movement of energy poleward (and upward in altitude). However, constant long-term transfer energy flow is an omission in climate models. He shows graphs on atmospheric flow of energy (by water vapor) with a break where the jet streams occur (subtropical jet about 30 degrees N & S) and Polar Jet 60 degrees N & S.
Then, Gallagher brings up the second issue to which TWTW has a minor objection. He states that the troposphere is capped by the ozone layer above it. The troposphere is capped by the tropopause, where water vapor freezes out. Above it, the effect of the ozone layer is noticed. Below the tropopause, water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas and it is very scarce in the stratosphere, where ozone takes over as the dominant greenhouse gas because it is formed in the stratosphere by solar radiation.
Gallagher brings up the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the difference between January and July. These varied during the Holocene, such as when monsoon rains came to the Sahara.
Hurricanes remove significant heat from Earth to space – water stores and transports energy in large amounts (CO2 stores no energy) to the upper atmosphere where emitted infrared radiation can escape. Energy flow in oceans takes place over years, centuries, or even millennia.
Gallagher discusses the role of clouds, which are chaotic and create uncertainty, clouds. Wide ranges of albedo, for different types of clouds, making representation difficult and modeling impossible, thus far this is very inaccurate. He cites various assertions of uncertainty of clouds, albedo, all of which determine energy balance.
The UN IPCC now has a sub-committee studying clouds called the ISCCP. It states that existing model accuracy for cloud prediction is 25 to 35%, but climate models must be improved by 100 times on clouds.
Atmospheric scientists admit that the complex effects of clouds on radiation and water exchanges are poorly understood. Recent comparisons of computer climate models show that in some models, clouds decrease the net greenhouse effect, whereas in other models, they intensify it!
The two biggest hurdles to modelling climate change are a lack of understanding of clouds and ocean currents. Cloud formation is controlled by temperature, evaporation/humidity/water vapor/ air density. Also not well understood are pressure distribution; wind and thermals; precipitation; varying latitude and season; altitude, topography; vegetation; seeding including aerosols and bacteria
Based on observations: clouds have an 8 to 33% variation on outgoing radiation (Remote Sens. 2018, 10, 1539). Many of the “cloud blocking of radiation” systems overlie the Japanese Current, the Gulf Stream, and Southern Ocean current. Most clouds form from ice crystals, which require seed particles to form, including dust, bacteria, fungi. Ice nucleating bacteria have a poorly understood effect on cloud formation.
Gallagher discusses the changing biosphere (atmosphere and oceans) influences on change climate as well as the changing biosphere on land – the Greening of The Earth. He discusses the importance of Phytoplanktonic Chlorophyll at both poles from upwellings. These upwellings stimulate the growth of Coccolithophores and organisms forming ocean nitrates. We have seasonal blooms. The blooms affect the ocean albedo. An important class of organisms, Coccolithophores float while living, sink when they die. They give us the history of the changing planet for the past 67 million years.
Greening of the land is promoted by CO2 promoting photosynthesis, increased growth, decreased water use, and lowered tissue concentrations of nitrogen and protein, particularly of C-3 plants. C-3 plants dominant current plant life. Even cannabis growers spray mists of carbonic acid to enhance growth. Further, the length of the US growing season has increased by 28 more days from 1890 to 2020. All leading to a greener world.
Gallagher then proposes some General Rules
- A warmer and wetter world will lead to a greener world (if CO2 is high enough)
- A colder, dryer, and dustier world will lead to a browner world.
- Need better data, understanding of history, and better earth science (too many significant factors are missing from idealized computer simulations)
- It is TIME to rethink our climate assumptions.
- Climate change is much more complex and poorly understood than has been presented to the public.
- The IPCC was created to speculate about man’s effects during a period of warming, not climate change (which includes cooling)
- Modeling does not integrate Real Historic Causes and Effects
- Notions and theories should be constantly being challenged and changed by experimental and real observational science.
- There are real costs to assuming that “The Science is Settled” or that the future of climate change can be easily protected by a computer model.
- Politics, Populare Group Thinking and Bias have no place in Scientific Discovery and Inquiry
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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What Climate Models Miss: SEPP Director Willie Soon gives a solid presentation of what is needed, but missing, in UN IPCC climate models – periods of extreme cooling and starvation such as The Maunder Minimum, when sun-spot activity was low and virtually nonexistent, from 1645 to 1715. The accompanying Little Ice Age did not appear uniformly in all continents but did appear in Asia, North and South America as well as Europe.
According to Soon:
- “The evidence for the solar Maunder Minimum interval for 1645 to 17115 is strong and robust.
- The broadest possible scientific research agenda to understand the Maunder Minimum and Little Ice Age can be proposed in terms of the unified framework involving historical societal-solar-orbital-meteorological-climatic-volcanic-tectonic relation.
- The overall cold with extreme hydrologic conditions (leading to all the dramatic social-political turmoil and crises) during the 17th century of the Little Ice Age is confirmed.”
Soon gives a great deal of contemporary evidence as well as physical evidence compiled after the Maunder Minimum to support that it was a bleak time. The evidence includes that from Europe and Asia (particularly China).
[Separately, this TWTW includes a study of Central Asia that focuses on the effects of climate change on development of Silk Road civilizations.]
Galileo was the founder of the use of the telescope for observing changing solar activity. Before that, eyesight alone was necessary. Soon includes a 1623 drawing by Galileo showing sunspots. Later Maunder (1851-1928) identified the minimum activity. As Soon demonstrates, this has been confirmed by many others, including by C-14 isotopes in tree ring cores, Antarctic ice cores, Beryllium-10 isotopes in Greenland, etc. This is physical evidence, not modeling results mistakenly called evidence. See the rich evidence under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations.
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Collapse Coming? A 2018 study notes that the Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning is weakening. The abstract reads in part:
“Here we provide several lines of paleo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation] have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years.”
This 2018 paper was promoted by the press as the collapse of the Gulf Stream by 2025. Before calling for a return of the Little Ice Age and mass starvation, reporters should review some undersea geography and climate history. Ron Clutz has a good review of what is involved. See links under
Changing Seas.
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Reason Collapsing? After US Climate Envoy John Kerry returned from China empty handed, for some reason, the UN Secretary General sprang to action. He gave a speech saying:
“’Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning,’ United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in the findings.
“’The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived.’” [Boldface added.]
Before the UN Secretary-General boils over again, perhaps he should check some solid work by Chinese scientists rather than the fanciful work put out by UN agencies. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
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EPA Delay: Currently, the comment period on new regulations on greenhouse gases for new, modified, and reconstructed fossil fuel power plants ends on August 8. See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/06/16/2023-12834/new-source-performance-standards-for-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-new-modified-and-reconstructed
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Number of the Week: 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons: According to a report in EOS:
“Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano… Likely off by a factor of 3… New research suggests 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons.”
We do not know what the impact on temperatures will be with such a massive injection of water into the stratosphere. Clearly, it is not human caused, but that detail will be omitted. See links under Changing Earth.
Global Societal Crises of the 17th Century: Perspectives from Research on Sun-Earth Relations
By Willie Soon, DDP Meeting, July 8, 2023
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpGrfxWiiUE
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Cosmic rays, clouds and climate: evidence from Svensmark
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 12, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
Censorship
Cancellations Start for John Clauser After Nobel Physics Laureate Speaks Out About “Corruption” of Climate Science
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, July 23, 2023
Amusing comment after the article: “I guess we should be grateful to the IMF for making it so clear that Dr Clauser was bang on target with his critique of the $cientific propaganda ‘climate crisis’ scam.”
Nobel Laureate Silenced [IMF]
Press Release, CO2 Coalition, July 21, 2023 [H/t Bud Bromley]
Is The Cure Worse Than The Disease–Andrew Bolt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
Video: “Andrew Bolt on the cancellation of John Clauser:”
“Can’t find renewable energy that is cheap and reliable.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Paleoclimatology, Part 3
By Tom Gallagher, Video, Accessed July 19, 2023
Clintel Report: Scenario misuse is worse than we thought
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
“Continuing our examination of the Clintel Report critiquing the IPCC AR6, we turn to Chapter 9, where Dutch science journalist Marcel Crok provides an excellent overview of the IPCC’s misuse of future-emission scenarios to bump up the fright meter at the expense of scientific integrity.”
[SEPP Comment: Whatever integrity is in the physical science report is lost by the time Summary for Policymakers comes out.]
How To Push a Climate Crisis Hoax: Florida’s Record Ocean Temperature
By Jim Steele, WUWT, July 28, 2023
“The formula is simple: Take an extreme temperature limited to a period of a few days from only one extremely tiny location, then encourage click-bait media to push the narrative that it represents the climate crisis caused by CO2 and threatening the whole earth.”
Why we CANNOT trust UN IPPC’s Temperature Dataset, with Professor Willie Soon at Camp Constitution 2023
By Willie Soon, Video, Rumble, July 19, 2023
Global Boiling Has Arrived!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
Climate Fakery Part 17
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2023
Video with UN Secretary-General saying: “Era of global boiling has arrived.”
NASA emphasizes climate science role amid fiscal and partisan challenges
By Jeff Foust, Space News, July 21, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
“’At NASA, we provide end-to-end research about climate, from observations to models and applications to technology,’ said Kate Calvin, NASA chief scientist and senior climate adviser.”
[SEPP Comment: Why does NASA ignore systematic atmospheric measurements of temperature, pressure, and relative humidity and favors erratic ground base measurements and speculation?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate change may have siphoned a Lake Mead-sized sip of water from the Colorado River Basin
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, July 25, 2023
Climate change may have siphoned a Lake Mead-sized sip of water from the Colorado River Basin
Link to paper: Aridification of Colorado River Basin’s Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation
By Benjamin Bass, et al, Water Resources Research, July 20, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022WR033454
From the Abstract: “While nearly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming has occurred across this region from the 1880s to 2021.”
[SEPP Comment: To put it mildly, the records in the 1880s were scanty, at best. Wyoming: Cheyenne, 1870; Arizona: Yuma 1875, Phoenix 1876; Colorado: Denver 1871; Grand Junction consistent records from 1892. The authors failed to check historical records.] https://www.weather.gov/gjt/history
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Buzz about The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC
By Andy May, WUWT, July 22, 2023
Time to cool climate panic over summer heat
Wild claims based on limited meteorological information
By Anthony J. Sadar, Washington Times, Friday, July 21, 2023
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/21/time-to-cool-climate-panic-over-summer-heat/
“However, water in all its forms is the biggest climate regulator, and nobody is afraid of water.”
A Leading Climate Scientist Expresses Doubt About the Veracity of the Global Warming Movement
By Jerome R. Corsi, American Thinker, July 24, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/07/a_leading_climate_scientist_expresses_doubt_about_the_veracity_of_the_global_warming_movement.html
Judith Curry
The science is so settled we can ignore it
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2023/07/26/the-science-is-so-settled-we-can-ignore-it/]
“Like the question ‘What is the correct temperature?’, [Rep. Scott] Perry’s inquiry should be put to anyone claiming it’s now too hot, followed in both cases by ‘How do you know?’ because it is an important question. But also, surely, a very straightforward one.”
The Globalist Left–Destroyers of Civilization
By Ray DiLorenzo, Canada Free Press, July 23, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
https://canadafreepress.com/article/the-globalist-left-destroyers-of-civilization
Dark Green Lunacy as a Cardinal Virtue
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, July 29, 2023
“The [CO2] Coalition set out deliberately, with nothing less than malice aforethought towards the IPCC, to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. What perfidy is that?”
Is global warming behind Greece’s wildfires?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2023
Change in US Administrations
Biden Violates Inflation Reduction Act Less Than One Year After Signing It Because…
By David Middleton, WUWT, July 26, 2023
“The proposed rule is open for public comment until September 22, 2023.”
[SEPP Comment: The Rice’s whale was listed as a separate species in 2021. Shouldn’t large areas off the East Coast also be excluded from development in fear of taking Right and
Humpback whales?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Chinese whispers
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
China Rebuffs John Kerry–Xi Tells Him, It’s Business As Usual For China
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2023
Seeking a Common Ground
Thinking Smartly About Climate Change
By Bjorn Lomborg Copenhagen Consensus Center, Imprimis, April/May 2023
Why Proximal Origins Must be Retracted
Can the public trust the scientific community?
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, July 24, 2023
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/why-proximal-origins-must-be-retracted?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
“Proximal Origins must be retracted to demonstrate to the world that we in the expert community can be trusted to correct course when we get off track. If we can’t correct course, then we will deserve the resulting loss of authority and legitimacy, to the detriment of science and society.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Hot as Ice in the Antarctic, Global Temperatures this June – July
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 27, 2023
“Indeed, the larger the geographic area covered, the more opportunity for creative accounting, for which corporates using similar techniques would go to jail, while climate scientists are more usually promoted.”
New Study: 1900-2010 Global Warming So Uncertain Any Rate Or Magnitude Conclusion ‘Impossible’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 24, 2023
Link to study: LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record
By Patrick Frank, Sensors, June 27, 2023
https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/23/13/5976
[SEPP Comment: Study was discussed in the July 1 TWTW]
New Sardinia Record Temperature Not Set At Official Station
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
“As with so many other claimed records, the quality of the siting, equipment and recordings is highly questionable, and certainly should not be bandied about as a record until fully validated.”
Changing Weather
Meteorologist: “No Need To Worry About Drought” in Germany…Enough Water In The Ground
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 26, 2023
“Zorn explains the 1.8-meter ground depth drought chart is designed to promote ‘artificial panic’, for 2 reasons. …’Firstly, these are values that have been calculated and not measured. And secondly, it takes weeks and months before it gets refilled again. But in the depth range where plants draw their water from, there’s enough there, and it’s going to stay that way.’”
Peak Hurricane Season Approaches. Protect Yourself Against the Coming Onslaught of Dishonest Climate Fear Mongering!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, July 24, 2023
European heatwaves: Soldiers died in the heat in 1160, Rivers ran dry in 1303, animals fell dead in 1393
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 26, 2023
Past Heatwaves In Europe
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2023
European Heatwave Update – AKA It’s Hot In Greece!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 23, 2023
Rain and Cool Temperatures During the Driest Portion of the Year
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 23, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/07/rain-and-cool-temperatures-during.html
Huge Grass Fire in Eastern Washington: Was Drought or Climate Change a Factor?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 26, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/07/huge-grass-fire-in-eastern-washington.html
“The bottom line in all this is that there is absolutely no reason to suggest drought or climate change had anything to do with the Turner Road fire of the past week, and it is disturbing the major local media (e.g., the Seattle Times) and key public officials are suggesting the opposite.”
[SEPP Comment: Wet Winters and Springs lead to growth of invasive Cheatgrass which dries more quickly than native grasses and burns easily.]
A Summer Without Extreme Heat in the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, July 28, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/07/a-summer-without-extreme-heat-in.html
“As noted in my previous blogs, the lack of extreme high temperatures is associated with a persistent atmospheric circulation pattern. It also helps explain the lack of wildfires over the region.”
Blaming The Problems They Created
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 27, 2023
Link to technical report: Biofuel impacts on water.
By Tidwell, Malcrynski, and Sun, DOE, Jan 1, 2011
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1030402
“My family visited Lake Powell sixty years ago when they first started filling it. We picked up this pamphlet which described the permanent water shortage in the Colorado River Basin.”
“’There is not nearly enough water in the Colorado River to irrigate all the land.’”
“Colorado uses 365 million gallons of water per day to grow corn for biofuels mandated by policies to stop global warming. Then the shortage of water they created is blamed by the same people on global warming.”
Changing Climate
A historic perspective on the Greenland ice sheet and its contribution to global sea level
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive: “As a result of that warmth, [during the Eocene] significant portions of the GrIS melted away. Quantitatively, Vasskog et al. estimate that during this time (the prior interglacial) the GrIS was ‘probably between ~7 and 60% smaller than at present,’ and that that melting contributed to a rise in global sea level of ‘between 0.5 and 4.2 m.’”
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
New Study: Modern Central Asia Climate Halfway Between Medieval Warmth And Little Ice Age
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, July 27, 2023
Link to paper: Precipitation variations in arid central Asia over past 2500 years: Possible effects of climate change on development of Silk Road civilization
By Guoqiang Ding, Global and Planetary Change, May 2023
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/370892327_Precipitation_variations_in_arid_central_Asia_over_past_2500_years_Possible_effects_of_climate_change_on_development_of_Silk_Road_civilization
[SEPP Comment: Apparently most, if not all, the authors are in China.]
Atlantic Ocean currents system could collapse this century from climate change: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, July 25, 2023
Link to paper: Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
By Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen, Nature Communications, July 25, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
Link to one study: Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years
By David J. R. Thornalley, et al. Nature, Apr 11, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0007-4
Will the Gulf Stream really collapse by 2025?
By Georgina Rannard, BBC, News, July 26, 2023
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66289494
“The last time Amoc [ Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation] stopped and restarted was during Ice Ages about 115,000 to 12,000 years ago.
[SEPP Comment: Even the BBC does not bite on the latest un-science. Doubt the AMO stopped during the last Ice Age.]
No CNN, Gulf Stream is Not Collapsing
By Ron Clutz,, Science Matters, July 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: CNN took the bait and Clutz hooks it.]
Scientists: ‘More Ocean Life Making Seas Look Greener’, Media: ‘Climate Crisis!’
By James Taylor, Climate Realism, July 13, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic Sea Ice Volume
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2023
“The final chart is the most revealing of all. We can clearly see that the lowest volumes were around 1980 and 1981; also, the trend was steadily increasing till it hit a record high in 2014. This was followed by the drastic drop in 2016, when, according to NSIDC, the SAM flipped. Since 2016, little has changed in overall terms:”
[SEPP Comment: It’s volume, not the extent that is important. But, for most areas, it’s all floating anyway.]
Scientists Are Worried About Antarctica’s Unprecedented Lack of Sea Ice Growth
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
“It’s strange that scientists were not panicking about going into an imminent ice age in 2014, when Antarctic sea ice was at a record high!”
“We only started collecting data in 1979, so the idea that any of this is unprecedented or concerning is nonsense. In fact, the claims of a six-sigma event are fraudulent; you would need thousands of years of data to calculate the statistical significance of this event.”
Arctic Meltdown Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2023
Polar bear habitat around Svalbard Norway above average despite high temps in N. Atlantic
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, June 26, 2023
Changing Earth
Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Submarine Volcano.
By Ryan Maue, WUWT, July 23, 2023
Link to one article: Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming
The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.
By J. Besl, EOS, Mar 16, 2023
https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming’
Link to earlier article: Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
By Stuart Jenkins, et al. Nature, Climate Change, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Agri-Absurdity: The High Cost of ‘Saving’ The Planet
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 25, 2023\
Lowering Standards
Met Office State of UK Climate 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
BBC: “The record-breaking UK heat experienced in 2022 will be regarded as a cool year by the end of this century, the Met Office says.”
Homewood: “As the above charts illustrate, UK summers have always veered from one extreme to another from year to year, how and cold, and wet and dry. You don’t need to invoke the climate bogeyman to explain away normal British weather!”
On PFAS, US Geological Services Shades The Data
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, July 25, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/07/25/pfas-us-geological-services-shades-data-17215
“The EPA developed the ∑EAR method to highlight their ToxCast database, which contains information on the effects of approximately 9000 chemicals in cells. The ∑EAR method is not a generally accepted method of measuring toxicity, and the screening level “representing a level of potential concern” is purely arbitrary and not based on science.”
How The BBC’s Heatwave Color Schemes Have Changed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
All heat all the time
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
“It’s almost as if journalists were living in a different world than their readers. And a much nastier one, which is quite an accomplishment.”
Is this summer’s extreme heat the new normal?
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 27, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Is hyperbole in reporting weather the new normal?]
Alarmist Media Push “Opinion Survey” as Basis for CA Climate Policy vs Using Energy & Science Data
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, July 24, 2023
Hottest Day Evah In Palermo!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2023
“This suggests that the urbanization effect is 3C, as the 47C claim comes from the middle of the city. … All in all, claims of a record temperature of 47C have little climatological significance at all.”
Justin Rowlatt [BBC] Flies To Spain To Tell Us It’s Hot There!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 21, 2023
Justin Rowlatt Promotes EVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26, 2023
“It is not the job of any BBC journalist, even a crackpot like Rowlatt, to waste license payers’ money on promoting EVs or any other product.”
Ryan Maue Embarrasses WAPO
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 27, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
The Lancet stretches half the axis and then heat deaths look worse…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 24, 2023
[SEPP Comment: TWTW missed that trick.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
BBC & The Black Winged Stilt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 23, 2023
Hey look, solutions to all the world’s big problems with the napkins to prove it! Now send money.
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, July 24, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
“Stay well clear of adults promising you things that are too good to be true.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Climate Change Weekly #478: Backlash, Polls Confirm Climate Change Is Low-Priority Issue
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Daily News, July 27, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
A reply to hate mail
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 27, 2023
The climate witch trials.
Questioning the climate-change narrative is now the ultimate form of heresy.
By Brendan O’Neill, Spiked, July 22, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Most People Aren’t Panicking because We’re in a Climate Change War Zone
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 23, 2023
July heat waves would have been ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change: research.
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 25, 2023
Link to paper: Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
By Marian Zachariah, et al. World Weather Attribution, No Date
From Observational data: It should be noted that the variables from ERA5 are not directly assimilated, but these are generated by atmospheric components of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) modelling system. The reanalysis begins in 1950, with data available until the end of the preceding month (June 2023). We extend the reanalysis data with the preliminary ECMWF analysis (1-16 July) and the ECMWF forecast (17-23 July) to cover the period of the three events. This is preliminary data, but this is unlikely to affect the conclusions of the analysis.
[SEPP Comment: Lots of press citations are not physical evidence of physical change. What caused the US 1930s heat waves? Aliens?]]
SMH: Aussies Aren’t Engaging with the 43C (110F) Climate Crisis
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 24, 2023
Sick of hearing about record heat? Scientists say those numbers paint the story of a warming world
By Seth Borenstein, AP, July 22, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://news.yahoo.com/sick-hearing-record-heat-scientists-084651028.html?guccounter=1
Reuters inaccurate fact check
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2023
Viewers see red over ‘misleading’ maps that appeared to include Britain among European countries experiencing scorching temperatures – despite poor weather in the UK
Maps depicted UK in yellow and dark orange despite rain and cold temperatures
By Sam Merriman, Daily Mail, July 23, 2023 [H/t Gordon Fulks]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12327909/Viewers-red-misleading-maps-appeared-include-Britain-European-countries-experiencing-scorching-temperatures-despite-poor-weather-UK.html
Vostok Station, Antarctica, Antarctica Monthly Weather | AccuWeather
Record Breaking Heatwave In Europe?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2023
“Most of the so-called reporting of the European heatwave seems to have centered around of temperature forecasts, rather than actual ones, along with claims of ‘records’ and images of people enjoying the sun. Factual reporting appears to have taken a holiday!”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
“Gosh. Imagine that. Youth becoming environmentally conscious. What a game-changer that one is. Stay tuned for our webinar ‘Does nobody study history anymore?’”
Questioning European Green
Climate Shock: An anti ULEZ Candidate Just Won a London Election
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, July 26, 2023
ULEZ – Ultra Low [carbon dioxide] Emissions Zone
Rail company grounds electric locomotives following rocketing electricity prices
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
“Economic chaos forces switch to diesel.”
SNP [Scottish National Party] admits to felling 16 million trees to develop wind farms
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Retired Officer Exposes How Environmental Policies Hurt The Environment
Video, Text by Charles Rotter, WUWT, July 22, 2023
John Baker is a retired Assistant Chief with the California Fish and Wildlife Department.
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Wind Project On Ice, “Threatening UK Climate Targets”
Energy Giant Vattenfall Puts Gigantic Offshore Wind Project On Ice, “Threatening UK Climate Targets”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, July 23, 2023
“Under the bottom line, the German government isn’t really deindustrializing, but rather is forcing German companies to move its industry out of the country using hostile policy. Germany faces a state of permanent economic recession.”
[SEPP Comment: Forget claims of costs falling, send more money!]
Vattenfall Pull Boreas Offshore Wind Farm-Not Economically Viable
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 22, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Power Grid Assumptions Are Disconnected From Reality
By Travis Fisher, Real Clear Energy, July 23, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/07/23/epas_power_grid_assumptions_are_disconnected_from_reality_967803.html
Energy Issues – Non-US
Intrusive ‘smart meters’ threaten to turn UK homes into Net Zero panopticon
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 26, 2023
How Europe Has Strengthened Its Energy Security
By Mark Temnycky, Real Clear Energy, July 25, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/07/25/how_europe_has_strengthened_its_energy_security_968457.html
[SEPP Comment: Does not discuss soaring electricity costs from unreliable, expensive solar and wind that is driving companies to other countries.]
Tony Blair’s climate pragmatism is a welcome intervention
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 28, 2023
“The former prime minister rightly argues that the UK is now a minor greenhouse gas emitter which has no significant impact on global emissions because the world’s major emitters have no intention of adopting binding caps….Net Zero Watch welcomes Blair’s intervention and hopes his pragmatic approach will open the door for a fresh debate that, for too long, has been seriously unbalanced, irrationally alarmist and depressingly intolerant.”
Tories’ Net Zero flip-flopping is unsustainable
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, July 26, 2023
“Now that the European ban [of combustion engine cars] has been overturned, the government will come under growing pressure to follow suit if it wants to avoid a driver rebellion and destroying the British car industry for good.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Don’t look now: Accounting trick destroys national economy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 28, 2023
“How to hide $100b storage, transmission lines, battery costs in a dodgy accounting trick.”
Energy Issues — US
Largest electric grid operator in US issues alert as temperatures climb
By Lauren Sforza, The Hill, July 27, 2023
“It also issued an Energy Emergency Alert 1 (EEA-1) to signal that all generating resources are already online or are scheduled to be online.”
The Secret Economic Benefits of Transmission Lines
By Chris Barnard, Real Clear Energy, July 24, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/07/24/the_secret_economic_benefits_of_transmission_lines_968205.html
[SEPP Comment: Building infrastructure for taxpayer subsidized, unreliable new electricity generation has economic benefits?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
A Silent Threat to the Energy Transition: America’s Broken Infrastructure Policy
By Joshua Trott, Real Clear Energy, July 27, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/07/27/a_silent_threat_to_energy_transition_americas_broken_infrastructure_policy_969191.html
“But money alone, even half a trillion dollars in federal funding, can’t solve the biggest problems facing the energy industry as it works to meet global demand today while building toward a more sustainable tomorrow. … So much of the conversation focuses on the tired and misleading narrative about Oil & Gas villains vs. Renewable heroes. The true enemy of our sustainable energy future is the nation’s broken infrastructure policy.”
Biden Admin Targets Water Heaters With New Rule Proposal
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, July 22, 2023
https://dailycaller.com/2023/07/22/biden-admin-targets-water-heaters-with-new-rule-proposal/
Energy regulators OK rule expected to make it easier to get renewables on the grid
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, July 28, 2023
Energy regulators OK rule expected to make it easier to get renewables on the grid
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Say You’ll Be There – How Much Longer Can Shale Support U.S. Oil And Gas Production?
By David Braziel, RBN Energy, July 21, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/say-youll-be-there-how-much-longer-can-shale-support-us-oil-and-gas-production
“Like end-of-times prophecies that never come to fruition, proved reserves in the Shale Era never seem to decline as much as predicted. A lot of that has been as a result of constantly improving unconventional drilling technologies and practices adopted over the last decade.”
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
On Methane Regulations, the U.S. Oil and Gas Industry Is a Willing Partner
By Mike Sommers, Real Clear Energy, July 25, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/07/25/on_methane_regulations_the_us_oil_and_gas_industry_is_a_willing_partner_968590.html
“Mike Sommers is the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute in Washington, DC.”
US to Spend $1.55 Bln for Oil and Gas Secton to Cut Methane Emissions
Funding will target low-producing wells, implementation of technology solutions and best practices.
By Deep Bakill, Reuters, July 25, 2023
https://www.naturalgasworld.com/us-to-spend-1.55-bln-for-oil-and-gas-sector-to-cut-methane-emissions-106300?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Newsletter%202022%20copy%202&utm_content=Daily%20Newsletter%202022%20copy%202+CID_0a40b42e356af60f42fd2da5813823cd&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=US%20TO%20SPEND%20155%20BLN%20FOR%20OIL%20AND%20GAS%20SECTOR%20TO%20CUT%20METHANE%20EMISSIONS
“’’The amount of methane emitted from oil and gas operations is enough to fuel millions of homes a year, and is a major driver of the climate crisis,’ said Joe Goffman at EPA’s Office of Air and Radiation.”
[SEPP Comment: Where is the physical evidence that it comes from US oil and gas operations, or that it is a major driver, or that we face a ‘climate crisis?’]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
ITER Fusion Energy Project: ‘Record-setting Disaster’
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, July 25, 2023
Nuclear (Con)fusion: Why the Gee-Whizz Factor Costs so Much
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, July 27, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Turbines are not Windmills, and John Howard is not an Environmentalist
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, July 26, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hydrogen, no matter the color, cannot stop the looming renewable energy train crash
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2023
“What a delight to read an article written by an actual energy expert, instead of some dopey environmental reporter!”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Manchester plans world’s largest battery to tackle intermittent wind energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 25, 2023
“It will store about 2 GWh. But daily electricity consumption is likely to be around 2000 GWh by 2035. And we would need many weeks of storage to cover for low winds in winter.
“What the storage plant will do is make a decent profit by buying power at low prices during time of surplus and selling it back at high prices when supplies are tight because of the intermittency of wind power. …And guess who will end up paying for those profits?”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Europe faces Chinese cheap car ‘invasion’, Vauxhall owner warns
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 27, 2023
“The firm, [Stellantis] which also owns Peugeot, [Chrysler,] Fiat, and Jeep, will also use its heft to demand lower prices from partners as it tries to bring down the cost of electric cars.”
Conquest’s second law of electric vehicles
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
“And it seems to apply to modern democratic governments in two ways on climate: First, they seem determined to wreck their economies and second, they seem determined to wreck their own political prospects. Including by making us all buy exploding unsatisfactory electric cars from Communist China. …Ironically, one problem is that the deliberate widespread policy of increasing the price of electricity by shutting down reliable generating plants has made EVs a much worse deal.”
Biden’s 67% EV Policy: a Dictatorial Attack on the American Driver and the US Grid
By Alex Epstein, Cornwall Alliance, July 18, 2023
“Ford Is Losing $66,446 On Every EV It Sells”
And FoMoCo isn’t making up for it in volume.
By Tony Heller, His Blog, July 28, 2023
Link to earlier column with more details: Ford Is Losing $66,446 On Every EV It Sells
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, May 3, 2023
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/ford-is-losing-66446-on-every-ev?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
From Bryce: “But if a business isn’t profitable, it isn’t sustainable. The history of electric vehicles goes back more than a century and that history is one of failure tailgating failure. In 1915, the Washington Post declared ‘Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they are within reach of the average family.’” [Boldface added]
Electric Mokka Now Costs £38K
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 28, 2023
“EV prices have risen sharply in the last year. A year ago, the cheapest electric Mokka, the GS, was priced at £32685, but it has since increased by 18%…The petrol model has also gone up in price to £26685, but the differential is now £11950”
From ads: “The battery of the Vauxhall Mokka-e has a total capacity of 50 kWh. The usable capacity is 46.3 kWh. An estimated range of about 160 miles is achievable on a fully charged battery.”
[SEPP Comment: The difference between the electric and lightest weight gas model is 328 kg or 722 pounds]
So about those Chinese EVs
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, July 26, 2023
Link to video: China is Throwing Away Fields of Electric Cars – Letting them Rot!
By Sepentza, Accessed July 26, 2023
EVs Spark Deadly Fire On Dutch Ship
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 26, 2023
“A Dutch coastguard spokesman said the fire was probably caused by one of 25 electric vehicles on board the ship.”
[SEPP Comment: There has not been a final determination of cause.]
Environmental Industry
Environmentalists ‘Ignore the Winter’ While ‘Hyping Up’ Summers to Maintain Climate Narrative, Expert Claims
By Joshua Phillipp and Naveen Athrappully, The Epoch Times, July 23, 2023 H/t Paul DeWitt]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/science/environmentalists-ignore-the-winter-while-hyping-up-summers-to-maintain-climate-narrative-claims-expert-5416967?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=navigator&rs=SHRCDDXLH&
Other News that May Be of Interest
Albert Speer’s Warning to the West About The Rise of Technocracy
By Will Stoutamire, American Thinker, July 25, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/07/albert_speers_warning_to_the_west_about_the_rise_of_technocracy.html
Major New Mexico wildfire was caused by Forest Service burn, agency finds
By Miranda Nazzaro, The Hill, July 24, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The U.S. Forest Service is to be thanked for its honesty.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Dumpster Diving NASA Scientist Peter Kalmus: ‘Biden must declare a climate emergency’ – Admits he has ‘bottomless grief’ because ‘we are losing Earth’ & seeks to ‘end’ fossil fuels
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, July 28, 2023
https://www.climatedepot.com/2023/07/28/dumper-diving-nasa-climate-scientist-peter-kalmus-biden-must-declare-a-climate-emergency-admit-he-has-bottomless-grief-because-we-are-losing-earth-seeks-to-end-fossil-fuels/
“NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab climate scientist Peter Kalmus in UK Guardian: “I’m terrified by what’s being done to our planet. … I’ve dreaded this depth of Earth breakdown for almost two decades, and, like many of my colleagues, I’ve been trying to warn you. As hard as I could. Now it’s here. …”
[SEPP Comment: Need one say more about loss of science integrity at NASA?]
ARTICLES
1. The Climate Policy Implosion Begins
Politicians belatedly realize that costly net-zero ambitions are vote losers.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 27, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-parliamentary-election-climate-policy-sadiq-khan-boris-johnson-5c5c0c9e?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial starts:
“Elections have consequences, and that sometimes includes even the obscure ones. The latest example comes from the United Kingdom, where last week’s election for a single parliamentary seat has set off debates within Britain’s two major parties over climate policies.
The ruling Conservatives barely held the suburban London seat vacated by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s resignation. The Labour Party had been expected to grab the district, which Mr. Johnson won by around 7,000 votes in the 2019 election, and on the same day Labour pulled off a far bigger swing in another by-election in the north of England.
Within hours of the result, it was clear Labour’s loss came down to environmental policies. The Tory candidate to replace Mr. Johnson framed the race as a referendum on London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand a tax on older vehicles to crack down on carbon-dioxide emissions. The tax disproportionately hits lower-income households and small businesses that can’t afford to buy newer cars, and it is unpopular.
Message received. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer on Friday called on fellow party member Mr. Khan to “reflect” on whether the extension of the vehicle tax should go ahead as scheduled in August. Over the weekend Mr. Starmer warned party leaders that Labour is doing something “very wrong” if it sticks to unpopular policies such as the car tax.
The London car tax is the latest climate policy Mr. Starmer has ditched as he woos voters ahead of a national election expected next year. He previously softened his line on oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, and he has scaled back Labour’s green spending promises.”
After comments of political moves, the editorial concludes:
“The climate movement has been marked by the contradiction of ever more extreme policies that have little effect on temperatures but meet ever more political resistance because of their costs. The political parties in democracies that recognize reality first will benefit.”
*******************
2. Schumer’s $2.4 Trillion Tax Increase
The Senate Majority Leader lobbies FERC to socialize green-energy costs onto red states.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, July 26, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chuck-schumer-ferc-green-energy-red-states-reliable-transmission-458c0337?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
[SEPP Comment: On Thursday, FERC complied with Shumer’s demand. Washington’s Control of Energy]
“Progressive states don’t want to bear the trillions of dollars in costs for building out their green electricity grids. So now Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is directing the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to stick red states with the bill.
Mr. Schumer last week sent a letter demanding that FERC expedite a ‘strong transmission planning and cost allocation rule’ to deliver more ‘clean power to Americans.’ He claims that disagreements among states on permitting new transmission lines and allocating their costs is stalling renewable projects.
Under FERC’s current rules, costs of transmission projects are allocated based on which parties benefit from improved reliability or reduced congestion costs. For example, Illinois residents would pay higher electric rates for a new transmission line to move power from a gas-fired plant in Wisconsin to Illinois to maintain reliability.
States in a regional transmission organization negotiate how to divide the costs, which hasn’t been controversial as long as projects solved reliability problems. The increasing problem now is that more than half of states have renewable energy mandates. New Jersey requires that 100% of power come from ‘clean sources’ including 7,500 megawatts from offshore wind—enough to power about six million homes—by 2035.
Building long transmission lines to connect solar and wind plants to population centers isn’t cheap. Texans spent about $4.1 billion in 2021 on transmission fees, more than twice as much as in 2011, owing largely to the Lone Star State’s wind and solar build-out. Transmission costs for solar and wind are two to three times higher than for nuclear and fossil-fuel power.
A Princeton University study in 2020 estimated that a transmission system to achieve net-zero carbon emissions would cost $2.4 trillion by 2050. High-voltage transmission lines would have to increase 60% by 2030 and triple through 2050.
States without renewable mandates such as Arkansas, West Virginia and Tennessee don’t want or need heavily subsidized green energy from other states, which could drive their own baseload fossil-fuel and nuclear plants out of business. They also don’t want to pay for new transmission lines whose sole purpose is to help other states meet their renewable mandates.
No matter. Mr. Schumer writes that FERC should order states that ‘act as free riders’ to pay for transmission upgrades. He also wants FERC to clarify its ‘backstop authority’ to issue permits when states won’t. In other words, if West Virginians don’t want to pay for connecting New Jersey offshore wind farms to the grid, FERC should mandate that they pay anyway.
Democrats in Congress are refusing to consider permitting reform that doesn’t socialize the costs of their green energy build-out, which Republicans won’t abide. So Mr. Schumer is directing FERC to do an end-run around Congress. ‘The success or failure of this commission will be defined by how they address these critical transmission rules,’ he says.”
The editorial concludes with the political split in FERC, supposed to be an unbiased agency. On Thursday, FERC complied with Shumer’s demand. See Washington’s Control of Energy]
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