By Andy May
American progressives believe that fossil fuels must be replaced have renewable energy by 2050. IEA There’s even a plan to do it. How will this work? Unlike processes, we value observational data more than ideology, so let’s examine the data. According to ExxonMobil’s 2021 Energy outlook The world consumed 89.4 BBOE (billions of barrels of oil) of primary energy in 2020, during the pandemic. OurWorldinData.Org provides a similar figure of 93.5 for pre-pandemic 2019, as shown in Figure 1.
When discussing global energy consumption, there are a number of units used in the literature that are confusing and confusing. In this post, we have consistently used BBOE, or billions of barrels of oil equivalent energy. Oil remains the largest primary energy source in the world, providing 31-34% of our energy, barrels of oil further afield have become familiar to people.
OurWorldinData uses TWh (teraWatt-hours) to report power consumption, which must be multiplied by 5.9 × 10-4 to convert it to BBOE. ExxonMobil uses four million BTUs and a conversion factor of 0.1651787. BP prefers exajoules, which differs from ExxonMobil’s 4 million BTUs by a factor of 0.94782. You can see my point; With all the weird conversions and units, it’s hard to think about what the numbers mean for our lives and well-being. Instead, the reader’s eyes flicker, and the very real impact of the numbers is lost.
Different types of crude oil in the world are different complex mixtures of hydrocarbons, so the energy content of the barrel of oil used here is the average energy content of the oil-fuel, equal to Definition of IRS of the energy content of a barrel of oil, 5.8 million BTU. One cubic foot of natural gas has an energy content of 1,000 BTU; so 5.8 thousand cubic feet (MCF) of natural gas has the same energy content as a BOE.
OurWorldinData tells us that the global primary energy consumed in 2019 was provided by oil (33.8%), natural gas (24.7%), coal (27.6%), transmission biomass. systems (7%), hydroelectricity (2.7%), nuclear (1.8%), wind (0.9%), modern biofuels (0.7%), and 0.8 % solar energy plus other types of renewable energy. Obviously, electricity is consumed, but electricity must be produced using one or more primary fuels. The percentage of our baseline energy produced from different sources varies slightly from year to year and by source, but the values I’ve listed are very typical. They point out that 86% of our energy comes from fossil fuels and only 2% comes from wind, solar, other and modern biofuels. The amount of solar magnetic energy is negligible and is associated with “other”.
Figure 1 shows that the increase in global energy consumption since 1960 is quite linear (R2 = 0.99) and growing at a rate of 1.1 billion BOE/year. Modern renewable energy, as opposed to popular believing, not even growing enough to keep up with consumption growth. As a result, the use of fossil fuels is get a raise, did not decrease globally. The total growth in renewable energy is very small, it only accounts for 7% get a raise in energy consumption. You can only manufacture and install so many solar panels and windmills, and they didn’t last that long in open.
Developed Western economies, tried to reduce coal use to reduce CO2 emissions. But with the exception of the impact of the pandemic, it did not affect global coal use, mainly by China and India, as seen in Figure 2. All their efforts did was export. production to China, India and other countries, making the world more dependent on imports. Even the pandemic makes little difference to coal consumption.
Radicals often ignore this fact and emphasize energy consumption in developed countries, ignoring the use of fossil fuels exported to developing countries. The bottom line is that energy markets are global, prices are set globally, not by evil fossil fuel companies. Fossil fuel energy increases global prosperity and facilitates global trade. Removing it would leave the developed world without many important manufactured goods.
“Traditional biofuel” is the burning of wood and manure in a home or business for heat, light, or cooking. This is undesirable as it creates toxic air pollution. Indoor air pollution, caused by conventional biofuels, is responsible for 4% of all deaths globally. One main researchpublished year Fingertipsestimated that more than two million dead can be attributed to indoor air pollution in 2019 (Christopher Murray, 2020). The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that four million dead, every year, are caused by indoor air pollution. Domestic wood burning is not only a problem in developing countries, the European Environment Agency, WHO, and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research suggest that more than 40% of harmful emissions come from the burning of biomass in residential areas. The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) estimates that 38% UK air pollution This is due to the exhaust gas from a wood-burning stove. In contrast, power generation and distribution of electricity, not produced from biofuels, provides 5%. For more on this topic, see here and here.
Modern biofuels are biodiesel and wood pellets or chips, which can still produce pollution, but they are burned in power plants, trucks or equipped cars modern pollution control equipmentso these fuels produce very little, if any, toxic pollution. However, modern biofuels are insignificant energy sources, i.e. less than 1%, like solar and wind power. According to ExxonMobil, the same pollution control equipment used in coal power plants has the same low toxic emissions and coal produced 42% of the world’s electricity in 2019. Air pollution is severe. honorific coal burning in China and India are caused by domestic coal burning and inadequate pollution control equipment in factories (see also here).
In general, additional atmospheric CO2 and global warming has helpful So far, the debate is not about the effects of greenhouse gases and global warming today or in the past, but about what might happen in the future. Figure 3 projects the slopes in Figure 1 to 2050.
The projections in Figure 1 show that it is difficult for renewable energy to meet future energy demand. Obviously, another source of energy is needed, and that could be the use of more fossil fuels. Do additional fossil fuels exist? Table 1 shows EIA It is estimated that the world holds 3,357 BBOE in technical recoverable oil and an additional 3,813.7 BBOE in natural gas. Both values are conventional estimates plus unconventional resources. The USGS Technically undiscovered, globally undiscovered, conventional oil and gas resources are also provided, as well as a unique resource estimate peer-reviewed by Hongjun Wang and colleagues. Estimates vary but are in the same ballpark.
Global coal resources are estimated to be 860 billion tons. In 2019, global coal production and consumption was 7,953 million tons (Mt) and it generates 24.2 BBOE of energy, about 0.00304 BBOE/Mt. If the estimate of 860 billion tons of unproduced coal is correct, that corresponds to more than 2,616 BBOE of energy.
The globe has been producing fossil fuels for a long time but technically renewable resources continue to grow, we can expect estimated resources will increase in the future (also see here). The main reason for the increase in resource estimates is new technology. Energy forecasts consumption in Figure 3 the energy aggregate from 2022 to 2050 is 3,264.3 BBOE, total renewable energy production is expected to be 79.3, just 2.4% of the demand. The rest must come from fossil fuels. Nuclear power plants take too long to be licensed and built, and very little hydroelectricity will be added between now and 2050.
Between natural gas, oil and coal, we have a technically renewable resource of 9,785 BBOE, or three times the fossil fuel energy we’ll need before 2050. More importantly, we will have a lot left.
Discussion and conclusion
At $119 per barrel of oil, $66 per ton of coal and $7.28 per MMBTU (as of June 15, 2022), there are no economic constraints preventing the development of natural energy sources. our abundance. However, political, regulatory and judicial barriers (as in environmental lawsuits) are currently prohibited. Global prosperity and energy availability are very closely correlated, and if fossil fuels were limited, more people would become poorGlobal health will declineand it’s clear that growth in renewables won’t make a difference.
World governments are clearly on a dangerous and unsustainable path. Fossil fuels are essential to our happiness and existence. People know this and want to buy them; therefore, we see high prices in a time when natural resources are abundant. Only governments get in the way – our elected officials and unelected officials. We need radical and rapid change in our governments. The impact of greenhouse gases is small, and possibly even beneficial, which is not true of our current governments.
Andy’s latest book is The Great Climate Change Debate.
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