The Week That Was: 2023-04-15 (April 15, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It is easy to forget that science offers more than a body of knowledge and a process for adding new knowledge. It tells us not only what we know but what we don’t know. It identifies areas of uncertainty and offers an estimate of how great and how critical that uncertainty is likely to be.” ― Norman Borlaug [H/t Henry Miller, ACSH]
Number of the Week: 0.14 K increase per decade
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Some additional points in the van Wijngaarden and Happer paper are discussed including the changing solar energy hitting the globe as it orbits the sun. The earth is closest to the sun in early January and furthest from the sun in early July. If there are any strong positive feedbacks from a warming, regardless of cause, they should occur during the earth’s orbit of the sun.
Ecologist Jim Steele has another good, simple presentation on how the Earth cools by convection and how the parts of the Earth become unusually warm. Unfortunately, he uses the term trapping heat. The term may apply to heat domes, but it does not apply to greenhouse gases which inhibit heat loss to space. Also, he does not discuss how subsurface volcanic activity may be warming the oceans.
Econometrician Ross McKitrick discusses a paper in JGR Atmospheres verifying the work by John Christy and Roy Spencer on atmospheric temperature trends.
Washington is using a combination of subsidies (which are really bribes) and false health claims (which are really coercion) to force automobile and light truck manufacturers into producing more electric vehicles. To properly identify the type of system Washington is imposing, the actions will be discussed in light of classical economic systems. Further, Washington appears to be totally unaware of the massive expansion of the minerals extraction industry that its policies will require as discussed in last week’s TWTW.
The World Health Organization and the US EPA as well as many once-respected medical journals have claimed that fine air borne particles are a deadly threat to human health. It appears that nature is testing their claims.
After gaining approval and paying their fees, a small group from the CO2 Coalition was evicted from the National Conference on Science Education by the National Science Teachers Association (NSTA). Physicist Gordon Fulks, a director of the CO2 Coalition and chair of the Education Committee, sent a letter to the NSTA questioning science teaching today.
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The Gap: In responding to last week’s TWTW, Reader John Shanahan asked why is only 60% of the Infrared Radiation emitted by the surface of the Earth going to space. Is the difference in energy used to do work for all the events in climate? (Motion of air and oceans, transport of fresh water from ocean to land and ocean, lightning, growth of plants, etc.?). AMO physicist Howard Hayden who wrote the essays on Basic Climate Physics on the SEPP website responded quickly.
“On average, the surface radiates as a blackbody of ca. 289 K, which means that it radiates ca. 398 W/m2 [watts per square meter]. The radiation to space is ca. 239 W/m2, so the net effect of GHGs [Greenhouse gases] is to absorb 159 W/m2. 159/398 = 40%. (Happer uses numbers that are a bit different — and probably better — but I use IPCC numbers, lest I be accused of using ‘unapproved’ data.)”
“What is the nature of that absorbed energy? Some of it moves the air around. Some of it radiates toward the Earth. Some of it evaporates water. But the long and short of it is that these are internal processes. The only external processes are incoming sunlight and outgoing IR [Infrared radiation], and the two are equal in quantity (though the spectra are entirely different). Consider just one of the balances: Heat leaving the surface (through IR, evaporation, and conduction/convection) equals the heat reaching the surface (sunlight, IR from clouds, IR from GHGs.
“For the time being, ignore the Boltzmann factor which determines the equilibrium fraction of molecules are in excited states. Think of layers The 15-micron peak in the CO2 spectrum is so large that at present concentration, the mean free path is only 20 cm. Now imagine a photon of that wavelength leaving the surface — not directly upward, but at some angle, say, 45º. On average it would rise about 14 cm before being absorbed. For a more horizontal angle, it would be even less of a rise. So (without getting our noses out of joint about precision), imagine that there is a layer of (say) 15 cm thickness in which (say) 95% of the IR of that wavelength is absorbed. For that layer, a molecule can emit an IR photon in some random direction, half with some upward inclination, and half with some downward inclination. For the next layer up, the same sort of thing happens, half goes upward, half goes downward. Layer after layer, the same thing happens. Each layer receives IR from the layer below and also from the layer above. Owing to the decreasing pressure with altitude, the layer thickness increases as you go up, but it is clear that there are MANY thousands of such layers between the surface and the ‘top of the atmosphere.’”
This thinking leads to a false conclusion that the amount of radiation to space (for each given wavelength) is far less than the surface radiation. For example, with a mere 100 layers, about 99% would be radiated back to the surface and a mere 1% would be radiated to space. Hayden uses the results of the NIMBUS satellite program (1964 to 78) over Guam (April 27, 1970) to show that the thinking is false. Also, it shows that carbon dioxide’s (CO2) influence is strongest in wavelengths about 15 micrometers. [This is similar to Figure 7 in the March van Wijngaarden and Happer paper which shows the theoretical infrared radiation to space (the smooth Planck curve) and the actual, observed infrared radiation to space (the jagged Schwarzschild line), with the wavelengths of the principal greenhouse gases identified.]
Hayden addresses the first Assessment Report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It had no radiation in the wavelength band where CO2 interferes with infrared radiation going to space – even though the observations taken 20 years earlier over Guam clearly show that significant radiation in those wavelengths does go to space. Further, the report does not discuss water vapor, the principal greenhouse gas, which changes the influence of other greenhouse gases. Thus, right from the start, the IPCC had the greenhouse effect wrong.
A possible out for the IPCC is that it discusses only man-made emissions. Yet, global climate modelers add an amplification effect from water vapor in their calculations. Separately, by law the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) is required to consider both natural and human induced processes of global change. By adopting findings of the IPCC, the authors of the NCA are failing to meet the requirements of the law. No wonder that Washington was so upset when a small group headed by David Legates published honest findings in 2021.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy, https://www.globalchange.gov/about/legal-mandate, http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022, and https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/ipcc_90_92_assessments_far_wg_I_spm.pdf
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Additional Points: In their paper in the section “A Model Atmosphere” van Wijngaarden and Happer (W & H) write: [Boldface added]
Solar heating drives Earth’s climate. At the mean distance of Earth from the Sun, sunlight carries an energy flux of about 1,360 Watts per square meter (W/m2). We are familiar with this flux, part of which warms us when we sunbathe at the beach on a cloud free summer day. The flux at the top of Earth’s atmosphere actually varies a little bit over the year, since Earth’s orbit around the Sun is slightly elliptical. Earth is about 3.3% closer to the Sun in early January than in early July. Since solar flux decreases as the square of the distance from the Sun, the solar flux at the top of the atmosphere is about 6.7% or 91 W/m2 greater in January than in July. As we will discuss in more detail below, for cloud-free temperate latitudes, doubling the concentration of CO2 would decrease thermal radiation to space by about 3 W/m2. Note 3 W/m2 is much less than the planet-wide, [Northern Hemisphere] winter-summer difference of 91 W/m2. And we are a long way from doubling CO2.
The change in solar radiation the earth receives between January and July should stop any speculation of amplification of warming and “run-away” greenhouse effect from positive feedbacks. But it will not. Van Wijngaarden and Happer conclude their paper with:
Summary
Greenhouse gases are responsible for the most striking feature of Earth’s atmosphere, a lower troposphere, and an upper stratosphere. In the troposphere, below the tropopause boundary, a large fraction of the energy flux from the solar heated surface is carried by convection, and not by thermal radiation. Convection maintains average temperature lapse rates in the troposphere that are close to adiabatic [heat does not enter or leave the system]. In the stratosphere, most of the upward heat flux is carried by radiation. Greenhouse gases warm the surface because they increase the “thermal resistance” of the atmosphere to the vertical flow of energy from the solar-heated surface to space. The larger the thermal resistance between the surface and the emission altitude, the larger the temperature difference needed to drive the solar energy absorbed by the surface back to space. Without the thermal resistance induced by greenhouse gases, Earth’s surface would be much colder and life as we know it would not be possible.
Increasing carbon dioxide will cause a small additional surface warming. It is difficult to calculate exactly how much, but our best estimate is that it is about 1 C for every doubling of CO2 concentration, when all feedbacks are correctly accounted for. Alarming predictions of dangerous warming require large positive feedbacks. The most commonly invoked feedback is an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the upper troposphere. But most climate models have predicted much more warming than has been observed, so there is no observational support for strong positive feedbacks. Indeed, most feedbacks in nature are negative as expressed by Le Chatelier’s Principle: When any system at equilibrium for a long period of time is subjected to a change in concentration, temperature, volume or pressure, the system changes to a new equilibrium, and this change partly counteracts the applied change.
We have barely touched atmospheric dynamics, perhaps the most interesting part of the grand drama of weather and climate. We are all familiar with manifestations of atmospheric dynamics: warm fronts, cold fronts, droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornados etc. Equally fascinating ocean dynamics, like the El Nino cycles of the tropical Pacific Ocean, also contribute to weather and climate. Earth’s atmosphere works like an extremely complicated engine that transforms heat from the Sun into the work that drives the winds, the weather and ocean dynamics. Greenhouse gases are the heat exchanger which allows the atmospheric heat engine to dump waste heat into cold space.
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Convection Simplified: Ecologist Jim Steele gives a clear, simple description on how convection works to cool the planet. In discussing heat domes that occur with stationary high-pressure systems Steele writes;
“Heat domes trap heat for days. They are high pressure systems where sinking air inhibits convection and reduces cloud cover which also increases solar heating.
“Canada’s record high temperature was set and reset 3 days in a row at the end of June 2021 in Lytton, British Columbia. The final record was 45F (25C) warmer than the average maximum temperature for June. A difference that’s intriguingly like the increased temperature inside a car with its raised windows.
“Southwestern Canada’s heat wave was caused by an exaggerated ridge in the jet stream known as an omega block. Omega blocks regularly cause high-pressure systems that linger in one location. As the block remained in place for days, more heat accumulated each day driving Canada’s record temperature higher and higher.”
As mentioned above, TWTW has two comments on the entire presentation clarify possible misunderstandings. One, greenhouse gases do not trap heat. They delay infrared radiation in reaching space. Second, Professor Yim’s studies on subsurface geothermal activity in oceans appear to be a better explanation of recent ocean warming than Steele’s explanation of salinity gradients. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the October 29, 2022, TWTW.
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Measurement, Not Speculation: Atmospheric temperature trends are not keeping up with IPCC predictions (forecasts, projections). Claims of a climate emergency or climate crisis are based on these predictions rather than actual observations. The temperature trend data by John Christy and Roy Spencer (University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH)) have been frequently attacked. An admitted problem has been orbital drift of satellites, which was recognized and corrected in the 1990s. Working with John Christy, econometrician Ross McKitrick studied the problem. He writes about a new study: [Boldface added]
“I’m referring instead to a new paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres by a group of scientists at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) headed by Cheng-Zhi Zou, which presents a new satellite-derived temperature record for the global troposphere (the atmospheric layer from one kilometer up to about 10 km altitude).
The troposphere climate record has been heavily debated for two reasons. First, it’s where climate models say the effect of warming due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) will be the strongest, especially in the mid-troposphere. And since that layer is not affected by urbanization or other changes to the land surface it’s a good place to observe a clean signal of the effect of GHGs.
“Since the 1990s the records from both weather satellites and weather balloons have shown that climate models predict too much warming. In a 2020 paper, John Christy of the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) and I examined the outputs of the 38 newest climate models and compared their global tropospheric warming rates over 1979 to 2014 against observations from satellites and weather balloons. All 38 exhibited too much warming, and in most cases the differences were statistically significant. We argued that this points to a structural error in climate models where they respond too strongly to GHGs.
“But and this is the second point of controversy, there have also been challenges to the observational record. Christy and his co-author, Roy Spencer, invented the original method of deriving temperatures from microwave radiation measurements collected by NOAA satellites in orbit since 1979. Their achievement earned them numerous accolades, but also attracted controversy because their satellite record didn’t show any warming. About 20 years ago scientists at Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) in California found a small error in their algorithm that, once corrected, did yield a warming trend.
“Christy and Spencer incorporated the RSS correction, but the two teams subsequently differed on other questions, such as how to correct for the positional drift of the satellites, which changes the time of day when instruments take their readings over each location. The RSS team used a climate model to develop the correction while the UAH team used an empirical method, leading to slightly different results. Another question was how to merge records when one satellite is taken out of service and replaced by another. Incorrect splicing can introduce spurious warming or cooling.
“In the end the two series were similar, but RSS has consistently exhibited more warming than UAH. Then a little more than a decade ago, the group at NOAA headed by Zou produced a new data product called STAR (Satellite Applications and Research). They used the same underlying microwave retrievals but produced a temperature record showing much more warming than either UAH or RSS, as well as all the weather balloon records. It came close to validating the climate models, although in my paper with Christy we included the STAR data in the satellite average and the models still ran too hot. Nonetheless it was possible to point to the coolest of the models and compare them to the STAR data and find a match, which was a lifeline for those arguing that climate models are within the uncertainty range of the data.
“Until now. In their new paper Zou and his co-authors rebuilt the STAR series based on a new empirical method for removing time-of-day observation drift and a more stable method of merging satellite records. Now STAR agrees with the UAH series very closely — in fact it has a slightly smaller warming trend. The old STAR series had a mid-troposphere warming trend of 0.16 degrees Celsius per decade, but it’s now 0.09 degrees per decade, compared to 0.1 in UAH and 0.14 in RSS. For the troposphere as a whole, they estimate a warming trend of 0.14 C/decade.
“Zou’s team notes that their findings ‘have strong implications for trends in climate model simulations and other observations’ because the atmosphere has warmed at half the average rate predicted by climate models over the same period. They also note that their findings are ‘consistent with conclusions in McKitrick and Christy (2020),’ namely that climate models have a pervasive global warming bias. In other research, Christy and mathematician Richard McNider have shown that the satellite warming rate implies the climate system can only be half as sensitive to GHGs as the average model used by the IPCC for projecting future warming.
“Strong implications, indeed, but you won’t learn about it from the IPCC. That group regularly puts on a charade of pretending to review the science before issuing press releases that sound like Greta’s Twitter feed. In the real world the evidence against the alarmist predictions from overheated climate models is becoming unequivocal. One day, even the IPCC might find out.”
Note that the data TWTW cites is for the lower troposphere (surface to about 8 km) not the middle troposphere (1 to 10km) used in the above. But there is little difference. The paper claimed that the rate for recent, (truncated) data was 0.22K (C) per decade. The start date was 2002, much cooler than the previous hot year of 1998. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Washington Control: Washington is attempting to control the production of light vehicles by a combination of subsidies (bribes) and regulations (coercion). In classical economics (1930s) economic systems were classified by who decided what to produce and who owned the means of production. In Free Market economics (called Capitalism by Marx) the actions of hundreds or thousands of individuals decided both. In Communism the government controlled both. In socialism the government owned the means of production but individuals decided what to produce. In Fascism, individuals (companies) owned the means of production and the government controlled what to produce. Using this analogy, one can decide what direction Washington is moving. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles,
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Yellow Dust: A large cloud of yellow dust has spread from Mongolia eastward as far Tokyo. This is an unusual event in April, but more common in May-June. It is as if Nature is testing the toxicity of fine particles claimed by the World Health Organization and US EPA as well as many once respected medical journals. Writing in the Asian Society, Korea, Brendan Pickering describes Hwang Sa (Yellow Dust) [Boldface added]
“In less than one month a phenomenon dating back to the second century AD will take place – the arrival of “Hwang Sa” or Yellow Dust in Korea. Originating in the deserts of Northern China and Mongolia, Yellow Dust is whisked into the atmosphere by strong winds and carried to the Korean Peninsula via the jet stream. Other than reduced visibility, when the dust arrives it brings along industrial pollutants (like pesticides), viruses, fungi, bacteria, and even heavy metals, none of which are good for respiratory health. Over time, the heavy metals and industrial pollutants also damage crops and soil, meaning the contamination is not restricted to humans.
“Health Risks: When Yellow Dust reaches an unhealthy concentration, around 400 micrograms/cubic meter, people are warned to limit their outdoor activity, especially in regard to heavy exercise and sports. Healthy people can develop sore throats and dry eyes, and children, the elderly, and people with previous respiratory health conditions are advised to remain indoors. In some cases, the concentration of Yellow Dust will exceed 800 micrograms/cubic meter, whereupon schools will be closed, outdoor events cancelled, and a general warning issued to stay indoors unless going outside is absolutely necessary.”
In doses such as these, if PM2.5 is as toxic as the EPA and WHO claim, we should be seeing hundreds of thousands of deaths. Will we? See links under Changing Weather and Health, Energy, and Climate.
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You Teach What? Physicist Gordon Fulks, a director of the CO2 Coalition and chair of the Education Committee, sent a letter to the National Science Teachers Association (NSTA) questioning science teaching today. The letter asserts “Children should be taught how to think, NOT what to think.” See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.
The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected]. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.
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Number of the Week: 0.14 K increase per decade. The increase in temperatures in the middle troposphere, where global climate models predict temperature increases will be the greatest, is 0.14 K or 0.25 °F per decade from all causes, including increases in water vapor. There is no climate emergency or climate crisis. On a typical sunny spring day in Northern Virginia, temperatures can rise that much in 5 minutes between 9 and 10 am. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Cosmic rays, atmospheric ozone and global climate change
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Canada & Department of Physics, Princeton University, USA, March 3, 2023
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/03/GreenhousePrimerArxiv.pdf?x45936
Global Warming Greenhouse Theory’s Greatest Weakness
By Jim Steele, A Walk On The Natural Side, Apr 5, 2023
Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2023/04/the-greenhouse-theorys-greatest-weakness.html
Video: https://youtu.be/XHLafd2MU-k
NOAA Confirm UAH Tropospheric Temperature Trends
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 13, 2023
Link to article: Ross McKitrick: The important climate study you won’t hear about
Challenges trends in climate simulations
By:Ross McKitrick, Special to Financial Post, Apr 12, 2023
https://financialpost.com/opinion/ross-mckitrick-the-important-climate-study-you-wont-hear-about
Link to paper: Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach
By Cheng-Zhi Zou, JGR Atmospheres, Mar 3, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD037472
“The new record yields a trend of 0.14 K/decade during 1979–2021 with an even greater rate of warming after the year 2002 (0.22 K/decade)”
Steven E Koonin’s conference in Paris on March 23
Association des Climato-réalistes [H/t Peter Salonius]
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgyAWIiMYqI&t=280s
Science betrayal
By Peter Ridd, Spectator Australia, Apr 11, 2023
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/04/science-betrayal/
Director Fulks to NSTA: Children should be taught how to think, NOT what to think
By Gordon Fulks, Director, and Education Committee Chair, CO2 Coalition, Accessed Apr 13, 2023
https://myemail.constantcontact.com/Children-should-be-taught-how-to-think–NOT-what-to-think.html?soid=1101509381788&aid=WWQ_q9AX_wg
On RCP 8.5 IPCC Exaggeration
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Like a bad penny, RCP 8.5 continues to turn up, often in other forms.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Study: Greenhouse gas ‘tipping points’ preceded major earlier warming events
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 10, 2023
Link to article: Past extreme climate warming triggered by tipping points, study finds
Press Release by Wageningen University, Phys.org, Apr 10, 2023
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-extreme-climate-triggered.html
Link to paper: Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events
By Shruti Setty, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Apr 7, 2023
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ade5466
[SEPP Comment: No physical evidence that increasing CO2 will produce anything but a slow, gradual increase in temperatures. So, create “discoveries” of what occurred during the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event about 66 million years ago? The fact that a layer of iridium is found at the boundary layer and large Chicxulub crater in the Gulf of Mexico are irrelevant?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate change making ‘flash droughts’ more common: study
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Appr 13, 2023
Link to paper: A global transition to flash droughts under climate change
By Xing Yan, et al., AAAS Science, Apr 13, 2023
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn6301
[SEPP Comment: From flash floods to flash droughts? In a day?]
Study: Smoke particles from wildfires can erode the ozone layer
MIT chemists show the Australian wildfires widened the ozone hole by 10 percent in 2020.
Press Release, Jennifer Chu, MIT News, Mar 8, 2023 [N/t NSF]
https://news.mit.edu/2023/study-smoke-particles-wildfires-erode-ozone-0308
Link to paper: Chlorine activation and enhanced ozone depletion induced by wildfire aerosol
By Susan Solomon, et al. Nature, Mar 8, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05683-0
[SEPP Comment: Seeking other defenses for the ozone treaty and theory that evidence shows was false.]
Study predicts the oceans will start emitting ozone-depleting CFCs
As atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11 drop, the global ocean should become a source of the chemical by the middle of next century.
By Jennifer Chu, MIT News Office, March 15, 2021
https://news.mit.edu/2021/oceans-emitting-cfc-ozone-0315
Link to paper: On the effects of the ocean on atmospheric CFC-11 lifetimes and emissions
By Peidong Wang, et al, PNAS, Mar 15, 2021
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2021528118
[SEPP Comment: Despite being banned in Western Europe and North America, CFCs are increasing, and they are not doing the damage claimed. Thus, they must be hiding in the oceans?]
US emissions up 6 percent in 2021 amid pandemic recovery: EPA
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 13, 2023
Link to EPA estimates: Data Highlights: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021
By Staff, EPA, 2023
“The Environmental Protection Agency found that despite the year-over-year increase, the country’s contribution to climate change is down 17 percent from where it was in 2005.”
Use of ‘forever chemicals’ is widespread in New Mexico drilling operations, report finds
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 12, 2023
Link to report: Fracking with “Forever Chemicals” in New Mexico: Evidence Shows Oil
and Gas Companies Have Used PFAS in New Mexico Wells; Water Risks Especially High for Groundwater Dependent State
By Dusty Horwitt, J.D. and Barbara Gottlieb, Data Analysis by Gary Allison, Physicians for Social Responsibility, Apr 12, 2023
“Physicians for Social Responsibility thanks the Rockefeller Family Fund for its generous support”
[SEPP Comment: Does the Rockefeller funded organization really believe that PFAS is 50,000 times more toxic than cyanide?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
It’s not really about climate, is it?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
Link to paper: “A wolf in sheep’s clothing: Exposing the structural violence of private electric automobility
By Keyvan Hosseini, Agnieszka Stefaniec, Energy Research & Social Science, May 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623001123
“’ “There was no vocabulary expressing the function of Science as a habit of mind, or a method of thought irrespective of its particular branches. There was, indeed, no word for ‘Science,’ any meaning that it could possibly bear being already sufficiently covered by the word Ingsoc.”
Climate Hysteria in The Dark Age: Are We Seeing Glimmers of Light?
By Tilak Doshi, WUWT, Apr 10, 2023
The new elite: the rise of the progressive aristocracy
By Adrain Wooldridge, The Spectator, UK, Apr 15, 2023 [H/t Steven Hayward, Powerline]
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-new-elite-the-rise-of-the-progressive-aristocracy/?zephr_sso_ott=NVqRq2
“Under the new hierarchy, the more oppressed groups that you belong to, the more moral virtue you possess.”
Climate Crisis? What Climate Crisis? Part Two: Where We are in the UK Today
By Neil Lock, WUWT, Apr 12, 2023
Reality Versus The Tesla Energy Report, Part II
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, April 11, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-4-11-reality-versus-the-tesla-energy-report-part-ii
Follow the science deep into left field
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
“Part of the difficulty with this worldview is that it assumes we know where and how plants and animals should be flourishing. Including the prevalence of avocadoes in New Zealand, we note snidely, and how much rain there ‘should’ be somewhere and what’s the right temperature for the planet. But there’s actually a remarkable amount we don’t know about what is ‘natural’.”
Energy and Environmental Review: April 10, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, April 10, 2023
After Paris!
COP28 Climate Conference Boss Promises to Introduce KPIs
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 10, 2023
“’Cop28 is committed to building on the progress made at Cop26 and Cop27 to inject a business mindset, concrete KPIs [key performance indicators, a cornerstone of most commercial strategies] and an ambitious action-oriented agenda.’”
Change in US Administrations
The White House State: ‘Regulatory Reform’ in Sheep’s Clothing (OMB Circular A-4)
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, April 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: More regulation for the sake of regulation. Actual costs to consumers are not important?]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
On the Benefits of CO2
By Randal Utech, Master Resource, April 11, 2023
Comment: “I have been an advocate of much higher CO2 levels since 1997, based on reading a total of about 300 CO2 enrichment — C3 plant growth studies. My initial goal is 750ppm to start — I know greenhouse owners typically CO2 enrich to 1000 to 1500ppm.”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Refrigerants versus CO2 versus settled science
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
“The finding therefore raises an important policy point. It’s proving very difficult to reduce CO2 emissions because they are closely tied to fossil fuel use and people just won’t be sensible and let the government cut their access to inexpensive fuel for heating, cooking, lighting and transportation and hope they’re OK being stuck cold and hungry in the dark where they are. But emissions of ozone-depleting substances have been reduced substantially since the Montreal Protocol was signed in1987 because it turned out there were effective and inexpensive substitutes to refrigerants, unlike fuels, so we could phase the former out relatively easily. And if we can curtail nearly as much warming as we expect from CO2 by continuing the phaseout of ozone-depleting gases, which we were going to do anyway, then there’s not as much pressure to inflict misery on the world by trying to get rid of fossil fuels.”
Coal capacity climbs worldwide despite promises to slash it
By Sibi Arasu, AP, Apr 6, 2023
https://apnews.com/article/coal-retirement-climate-change-china-india-5ac4a2eeaf71b5e839b2a0e09ae8bd38
China doubles down on coal ahead of potential summer blackouts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 13, 2023
“That’s funny! I thought China was going to build lots of new solar farms.”
Seeking a Common Ground
CO2 Budget Model Update Through 2022: Humans Keep Emitting, Nature Keeps Removing
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 13, 2023
“But clearly the international efforts to reduce CO2 emissions are having no obvious impact. This is unsurprising since global energy demand continues to grow faster than new sources of renewable energy can make up the difference.”
Artificial unintelligence and global warming
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 10, 2023
Model Issues
Earth’s Greenhouse Effect Has Not Been Enhanced, But Instead Its Impact Has Declined Since 1983
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 10, 2023
Link to latest paper: Global Radiative Flux Profile Data Set: Revised and Extended
By Yuanchong Zhang, William B. Rossow, JGR Atmospheres, Feb 21, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2022JD037340
“The article describes the updated version of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) radiative profile flux product, ISCCP-FH. This version has several important improvements over its previous two versions in its radiation model and input data sets of clouds, aerosol and other atmospheric and surface physical properties as well as ancillary data sets.”
Think We Can Model the Climate? Clouds Get in the Way!
By Ron Barmby, CO2 Coalition, Apr 9, 2023
Measurement Issues — Surface
#CoolClimateData: Canadian Historical Climate Statistics
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
Link to: Historical Data
By Staff, Canadian Center for Climate Services, Accessed Apr 12, 2023
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/historical_data/search_historic_data_e.html
“Get the picture? The so-called normal average weather for April in Ontario is…whatever nature throws at you. And it would be cool if more people understood that.”
[SEPP Comment Does not appear to give early data compiled by the Hudson Bay Company.]
Bureau Releases Limited Parallel Data from Brisbane Airport
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Apr 15, 2023
“Statistical analysis of 3 years of maximum temperature data for Brisbane airport shows the temperatures recorded from the probe in an automatic weather station are significantly different from the mercury thermometer. This contradicts claims by the Bureau’s Director, Andrew Johnson, that measurements from these two instruments are equivalent.”
Hwang Sa (Yellow Dust)
By Brendan Pickering, Asian Society, Korea, 2023
https://asiasociety.org/korea/hwang-sa-yellow-dust
Yellow dust engulfs South Korea, residents asked to stay inside
By The National Desk, 21 News, Apr 12, 2023
https://local21news.com/news/videos/yellow-dust-engulfs-south-korea-residents-asked-to-stay-inside-environment-ministry-gobi-desert-inner-mongolia-advisory-level-emergency-response-teams
Yellow sand reaches Tokyo for first time in two years
By Kathleen Benoza, The Japan Times, Apr 13, 2023
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/13/national/yellow-sand-japan-forecast/
Super Rainshadow
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 10, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/04/super-rainshadow.html
Cold April Follows A Frigid March
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 12, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/04/cold-april-follows-frigid-march.html
“Why so crazy cold this month over the Northwest?
“Because an unusually deep upper-level low will park itself off our coast–and it will remain there for at least a week (see forecast below for next Wednesday).”
Was the 2nd heaviest day of rain in Australia caused by a volcano in Chile?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Interesting question.]
April 9, 1947, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 9, 2023
April 10, 1979, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 9, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Is the Antarctic-driven abyssal ocean overturning doomed in 2050?
By Frank Bosse, Climate Etc. Apr 11, 2023
Winter sea ice habitat for polar bears still abundant enough to sustain a thriving species
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 10, 2023
“In contrast to summer sea ice, winter ice in the Arctic was again abundant this year. The slight decline since 1979 has so far been no cause for concern to polar bears, who are thriving.”
Changing Earth
Another Day, Another CO2-Is-A-Climate-Driver Inconsistency
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 13, 2023
Link to latest paper: The Climate Response to the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption Does Not Constrain Climate Sensitivity
By Andrew G. Pauling, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 31, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102946
[SEPP Comment: More models do not necessarily mean greater accuracy, particularly when the models embody characteristics that are wrong.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Norman Borlaug, ‘Father Of The Green Revolution,’ Was Remarkable In Many Ways
By Henry I. Miller, MS, MD , ACSH, April 6, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/04/06/norman-borlaug-father-green-revolution-was-remarkable-many-ways-16974
Lowering Standards
Are India’s Heatwaves Getting Hotter?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 9, 2023
“As the guy says, they would rather have the benefits of civilisation, even if it results in marginally higher temperature.”
Lazard: still unreliable
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Apr 13, 2023
Link to report: 2023 Levelized Cost Of Energy+
By Staff, Lazard Financial Services, April 20223
https://www.lazard.com/research-insights/2023-levelized-cost-of-energyplus/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Fossil fuel emissions from electricity set to fall-BBC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 12, 2023
“But this is no more than wishful thinking. Although renewable generation will continue to rise, this may not even be enough to meet increased demand, which has certainly been the experience in China lately.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
“Scientific American continues its descent into partisan polemics with ‘Wealthy Countries Have Blown Through Their Carbon Budgets’.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
110,000 Deaths A Year In South Asia Due To Rising Temperatures, Claims WHO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2023
Link to paper: Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
By Qi Zhao, et al. The Lancet, July 2023
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2542-5196%2821%2900081-4
“Funding Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.”
BBC Admit To Using Fake Image–But Don’t Apologise
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Sorry we sent your kid to the psych ward, here’s a cute panda
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
“’One 2018 study published in the journal Nature Climate Change projected that future increases in hot weather could contribute to more than 20,000 excess suicides in the U.S. and Mexico over the next 30 years.’”
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 13, 2023
“This BBC interview with Elon Musk has already been covered elsewhere, but Jesse Watters cleverly picks up on the BBC guy using the “Strategic Dialogue Institute” as an example of an organization who says that hate speech is on the rise on Twitter.”
Carbon Shell Game
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 11`, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Video by World Economic Forum on Costa Rica.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
EU Climate Tentacles Reach US Companies
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 11, 2023
EPA awards $177 million to environmental justice groups
By Drew Costley, AP The Hill, Apr 13, 2023
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/epa-awards-177-million-to-environmental-justice-groups/
Meet the New Green Blob
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Apr 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Environmental justice? See link immediately above.]
Questioning European Green
Expert Warns: Cars Soon Unaffordable To 50% Of Germans! “Huge Social Conflict”… Idiotic, Singular Policy”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 12, 2023
Germany’s Renewable Heating Plan To Cost Many Times More Than Expected: 776 Billion Euros!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 11, 2023
German Professor Warns Of Country’s Pending “Heat Pump Disaster”…”Saves No CO2″…Painful Costs
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 9, 2023
Norman Fenton On Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment; Video. How miserable Net Zero will be?]
Net zero rules saddle high street with ‘disastrous’ £90bn upgrade bill
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 8, 2023
“’New energy standards will make 91pc of all retail space including high street stores and shopping centers across UK city centers unlettable by 2030 without urgent and costly action, according to Savills estate agent.’”
[SEPP Comment: “High Street” refers to primary shopping and business districts.]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Are You Ready to Live with Less?
By Allan J. Feifer, American Thinker, Apr 14, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/04/are_you_ready_to_live_with_less.html
New Zealand Farmers Worried Carbon Pricing Might Destroy Their Agri-Businesses
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 11, 2023
Link to: NZ farmers worry about ‘carbon leakage’ if they have to pay for emissions, but they could benefit from playing the long game
By Anita Wreford, Professor Applied Economics, Lincoln University, and two others, The Conversation
https://theconversation.com/nz-farmers-worry-about-carbon-leakage-if-they-have-to-pay-for-emissions-but-they-could-benefit-from-playing-the-long-game-202839
“New Zealand could decide to be a leader and demonstrate to the rest of the world a commitment to reducing emissions from our highest emitting sector. This may result in some leakage initially, but this would likely decline as other countries take similar action.”
[SEPP Comment: More academic nonsense about being a leader! In bankruptcy?]
Biden’s Gift to the Climate Movement – A Deep Economic Recession?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 9, 2023
Green Energy Math
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Arp 10, 2023
Funding Issues
It’s never enough, 2023 edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
World Bank Nominee Aims To Spend ‘Trillions’ On ‘Climate Change’
By Yudi Sherman, Principia Scientific, Apr 10, 2023
Litigation Issues
Oral Argument In CHECC v. EPA: The Issue Of Standing
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 14, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-4-14-oral-argument-in-checc-v-epa-the-issue-of-standing
“Even as the judges pressed CHECC with those questions, in this very matter, a collection of environmental groups (e.g., American Lung Association, Clean Wisconsin, Appalachian Mountain Club) intervened with no more basis for standing than the generalized claim of an interest in a clean and healthy environment. “
[SEPP Comment: Unfortunately, in the American court system, claims of health are accepted as evidence?]
Why Did The U.S. Solicitor General Flip-Flop on Climate Change? | Opinion
By Todd Rokita, Attorner General, Indiana, Newsweek, Apr 11, 2023
https://www.newsweek.com/why-did-us-solicitor-general-flip-flop-climate-change-opinion-1793032
“In a case called Suncor Energy Inc. v. Board of County Commissioners of Boulder County, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar recently told the Supreme Court that climate-change cases should be heard not in federal courts, but in deep-blue, progressive state courts.”
North Dakota [US District] court blocks Biden waters rule
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 12, 2023
“Hovland wrote that there are ‘serious questions’ regarding the 2023 rule’s interpretation of ‘interstate waters’ to include those not connected to navigable waterways.”
[SEPP Comment: Piles of wet leaves far from any moving water have been classified as navigable waters of the United States.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Contracts for Difference Subsidies On The Rise Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 14, 2023
“The Renewable Obligation scheme will hand renewable generators about £6.8 billion this year, about 12% higher than last year thanks to indexation.”
[SEPP Comment: Government zealots will not make deals for the benefit of the public.]
Net zero subsidies are a disaster for Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 11, 2023
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden-Harris Administration Proposes Strongest-Ever Pollution Standards for Cars and Trucks to Accelerate Transition to a Clean-Transportation Future
Building on rapid advancements and investments in clean vehicle manufacturing, including investments in domestic manufacturing in the Inflation Reduction Act, EPA’s proposed standards would deliver on President Biden’s agenda to tackle the climate crisis.
Press Release, EPA, April 12, 2023
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-proposes-strongest-ever-pollution-standards-cars-and
Great Car Reset: Biden’s EPA to release strict new fed emissions standard to ‘move U.S. car market decisively toward electric vehicles’ – ‘Up to 2/3’ of cars sold mandated to be EV by 2032
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Apr 10, 2023
https://www.climatedepot.com/2023/04/10/great-car-reset-bidens-epa-to-release-strict-new-fed-emissions-standard-to-move-u-s-car-market-decisively-toward-electric-vehicles-up-to-2-3-of-cars-sold-mandated-to-be-ev-by-2032/
The EPA Regulatory Reconsideration of Fine Particulates
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, April 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/10/the_epa_regulatory_reconsideration_of_fine_particulates_892866.html
EPA proposes rules aimed at limiting cancer risks from exposure to chemical used in sterilization
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 11, 2023
Link to CDC site: Ethylene Oxide
By Staff, CDC, Accessed Apr 12, 2023
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/ethyleneoxide/default.html
“Many industries use ethylene oxide. Some use it to make ethylene glycol, which industries use to make antifreeze and polyester.”
[SEPP Comment: Typical EPA nonsense. If it may be harmful to workers exposed to high concentrations, it must be deadly to those in the neighborhood exposed to scant concentrations.]
The big reason why the U.S. is seeking the toughest-ever rules for vehicle emissions
By Camila Domonoske, NPR, Apr 12, 2023
https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1169269936/electric-vehicles-emission-standards-tailpipes-fuel-economy
Energy Issues – Non-US
The OBR’s curious predictions
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Apr 11, 2023
“The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) recently published its predictions about how the cost of environmental levies might change over the next few years.”
“Of course, there is a third explanation for the OBR’s numbers, which is that they are entirely baseless – a work of fiction designed to make the burden of green levies look a little less appalling than it otherwise would. But the Westminster machine would never do something so deceptive…would they?”
Letter To MPs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 11, 2023
ChatGPT’s Carbon Footprint Is an Opportunity for Ambitious Cities
By Cassandra Shand, Real Clear Energy, April 11, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/11/chatgpts_carbon_footprint_is_an_opportunity_for_ambitious_cities_892907.html
“Bitcoin’s energy consumption is huge, using more energy each year than the entirety of Argentina, the Netherlands, or the UAE.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Green Energy Crunch Time: Aussie Liddell Coal Plant Closes This Month
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: In time for Australia’s winter!]
Energy Issues — US
US coal plant contribution to electric grid plummets to smallest in history: report
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Apr 411, 2023
Link to report: U.S. coal generation falls to record first-quarter low
By Dennis Wamsted and Seth Feaster, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, April 11, 2023
https://ieefa.org/resources/us-coal-generation-falls-record-first-quarter-low
[SEPP Comment: Interestingly the report does not discuss natural gas. According to the EIA, fossil fuels made up 60.2 percent of 2022 electricity generation, (natural gas 39.8%; coal, 19.5%); renewables made up 21%, (wind, 10.2%; hydropower, 6.2%; solar 3.4%; wood, waste, and geothermal 1.2%), and nuclear at 18.1%.]
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
Highlighting Alaska’s Energy Leadership in the Arctic
By Heather Reams, Real Clear Energy, April 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/10/highlighting_alaskas_energy_leadership_in_the_arctic_892360.html
Largest coal plant in Pennsylvania to cease operations
By WPXI.com News Staff, Apr 4, 2023
https://www.wpxi.com/news/local/largest-coal-plant-pennsylvania-cease-operations/DZ7BLOKCZ5E2VGMM3N7CCZWZ5Q/
[SEPP Comment: Fortunately, Pennsylvania has natural gas that it uses.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden’s 67% EV policy: a dictatorial attack on the American driver and the US grid
Biden’s proposed rules would 1. Force Americans to drive inferior cars, 2. Place massive new demand for reliable electricity on a grid that is declining in reliability
By Alex Epstein, His Blog, Apr 12, 2023
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/bidens-67-ev-policy-a-dictatorial?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=513601&post_id=114317398&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Go All The Way – Proposed Pipelines Would Land Permian Natural Gas On LNG Terminals’ Doorstep
By Jason Ferguson, RBN Energy, Apr 6, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/go-all-the-way-proposed-pipelines-would-land-permian-natural-gas-on-lng-terminals-doorstep
[SEPP Comment: Getting rid of natural gas that is produced from oil fields is important.]
Citi Bucks The Bullish Trend, Bets Oil Prices Will Fall
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Apr 11, 2023
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Citi-Bucks-The-Bullish-Trend-Bets-Oil-Prices-Will-Fall.html
Dock Of The Bay – A Revolution In U.S. Crude Oil And Petroleum Product Export Markets
By Rusty Braziel, RBN Energy, Ap4 12, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/dock-of-the-bay-a-revolution-in-us-crude-oil-and-petroleum-product-export-markets
Return of King Coal?
India Commissions First Supercritical Coal Plant Equipped with Air-Cooled Condenser
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Apr 3, 2023
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Construction of second Arctic floating nuclear power plant is underway
Three years after “Akademik Lomonosov” started to produce electricity for the remote Siberian community of Pevek, the first of four in a new generation of up-scaled floating nuclear power plants for the Arctic is now officially under construction at a yard in China.
By Thomas Nilsen, The Barents Observer, Aug 30, 2022 [H/t Rick Sanders]
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/nuclear-safety/2022/08/construction-second-arctic-floating-nuclear-power-plant-started
India Eyes Major Expansion of Nuclear Power
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Apr 3, 2023
“The U.S. and India in 2019 signed a deal in which the U.S. pledged to support construction of at least six nuclear power plants in India, and the two countries in February revisited previous agreements from as long ago as 2008 that could facilitate U.S. backing of India’s nuclear power program.”
[SEPP Comment: Will Washington support nuclear in the US?]
Onsite Nuclear Provides 24/7 Clean Power
Data centers and small nuclear reactors – a match made in heaven?
By Brian Gitt, Real Clear Energy, April 12, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/12/onsite_nuclear_provides_247_clean_power_893420.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Expensive Impossibility of Green Hydrogen From Part-Time Wind and Solar
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, April 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/10/the_expensive_impossibility_of_green_hydrogen_from_part-time_wind_and_solar_892353.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Elon’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Battery Math
Tesla’s “Master Plan” for weather-dependent renewables will require 960 years of Gigafactory battery output.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Apr 7, 2023
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/elons-terrible-horrible-no-good-very
“In 2007, I interviewed Vaclav Smil by email. I asked the Canadian polymath and prolific author a simple question: why are so many people so easily duped when it comes to discussions about energy and power?
“He replied: ‘There has never been such a depth of scientific illiteracy and basic innumeracy as we see today. Without any physical, chemical, and biological fundamentals, and with equally poor understanding of basic economic forces, it is no wonder that people will believe anything.’”
[SEPP Comment: But it sounds good when Musk says it!]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Biden torched for cracking down on gas cars, pushing electric vehicles: ‘Biden’s newest power grab’
President Biden ‘wants to ban the cars we drive,’ top Republican on Senate Energy Committee says
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox News, Apr 12, 2023
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-torched-cracking-down-gas-cars-pushing-electric-vehicles-bidens-newest-power-grab
“Insurers warn Biden’s new electric vehicle proposal will increase premiums as batteries cannot be repaired.”
Electric car can cost nearly 50% more to insure than a petrol equivalent
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 10, 2023
“I suspect one of the main reasons for higher insurance costs is the fact that batteries may need to be replaced, even if only slightly damaged.”
Two-thirds of car sales could be electric by 2032 under new Biden proposal
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 12, 2023
“The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projects that 67 percent of new light-duty passenger cars sold in the U.S. could be electric that year under its new proposed clean car regulations.”
[SEPP Comment: How many hundreds of square miles must be strip-mined for the minerals needed?]
Car parks could collapse under the weight of electric cars
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 9, 2023
EV Sales Stall
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 11, 2023
California Dreaming
Heavier EV’s Not Funding California Roadways
By Ronald Stein, The Heartland Institute, Apr 12, 2023
Air Pollution and Mortality at the Intersection of Race and Social Class
By Kevin P. Josey, Ph.D., et al. New England Journal of Medicine, Apr 13, 2023
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa2300523?query=TOC
“Because information is lacking on exposure–response curves for PM2.5 exposure and mortality among marginalized subpopulations categorized according to both race and socioeconomic position, the Environmental Protection Agency lacks important evidence to inform its regulatory rulemaking for PM2.5 standards.”
[SEPP Comment: We have no evidence of critical toxicity, so we do data dredging that does not account for diet, smoking, etc.]
Other Scientific News
The Next Great Total Solar Eclipse on US Soil is Now Just Under a Year Away…Monday, April 8th, 2024
By Paul Dorian, arcfieldweather.com, Via WUWT, Apr 11, 2023
Other News that May Be of Interest
Long-forgotten equation provides new tool for converting carbon dioxide
By Blaine Friedlander, Cornell Chronicle, Ithaca NY (SPX) Apr 07, 2023
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Long_forgotten_equation_provides_new_tool_for_converting_carbon_dioxide_999.html
Link to paper: Mechanistic Insights into the Formation of CO and C2 Products in Electrochemical CO2 Reduction─The Role of Sequential Charge Transfer and Chemical Reactions
By Rileigh Casebolt, et al., ACS Catal, Mar 27, 2023
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscatal.2c06043
[SEPP Comment: Does not mean that converting CO2 is possible or practical.]
World’s biggest cumulative logjam mapped in Arctic
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Apr 12, 2023
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Worlds_biggest_cumulative_logjam_newly_mapped_in_the_Arctic_stores_3_4_million_tons_of_carbon_999.html
Link to paper: Wood-Based Carbon Storage in the Mackenzie River Delta: The World’s Largest Mapped Riverine Wood Deposit
By Alicia Sendrowski, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 11, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100913
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Canterbury fails
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 12, 2023
“So if Canterbury really does impose this ban you can bet that, just as John Kerry and Justin Trudeau have kept their private jet travel, city council limousines will be exempt.”
[SEPP Comment: Teen-age critical thinking is not exclusive to any political party or age.]
ARTICLES
1. A Texas-Sized Energy Fiasco
Austin passes subsidies for gas power to counter wind-power subsidies that have destabilized the state electric grid.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, April 14, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-gas-power-subsidies-energy-wind-power-senate-dan-patrick-republicans-ae6d2367?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“What a mess. Renewable subsidies have distorted and destabilized the Texas electric grid, which resulted in a week-long power outage during the February 2021 freeze. To prevent more blackouts, Republicans in the Lone Star State now plan to subsidize gas power plants.
The Texas Senate last week passed putative energy reforms to “level the playing field,” as Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick put it. Texans will now spend tens of billions of dollars to bolster natural-gas plants that provide reliable power but can’t make money because of competition from subsidized renewable energy.
Federal tax credits have encouraged an oversupply of wind power, which Lone Star State Republicans assisted last decade by charging rate payers $7 billion to build thousands of miles of transmission lines from West Texas and the Panhandle to big cities. Solar and wind supply about 30% of Texas power on average but sometimes can produce more than half.
Wind generators pocket a tax credit for every kilowatt hour they produce no matter if the grid needs it. A surfeit of wind is increasingly driving wholesale power prices negative—i.e., generators have to pay to offload their power. Wind producers can still make money because of the tax credits, but fossil-fuel plants that provide baseload power can’t.
Baseload plants were developed on the financial assumption that they’d run 85% to 90% of the time, but many aren’t because they are being squeezed by renewables. Coal plants are closing, and gas generators are at risk. Too few new gas plants are being built to support a growing population and industry. As a result, power is becoming unreliable, especially during extreme weather.
The state Senate’s answer is to create a Texas Energy Insurance Program to support gas generators to backstop renewables.”
****************
2. The Fed’s Climate Studies Are Full of Hot Air
One finds a correlation by assigning equal weight to all countries, from China to tiny St. Vincent.
By David Barker, WSJ, April 9, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-climate-studies-are-full-of-hot-air-environment-propaganda-activism-banking-crisis-recession-federal-reserve-c47492e7?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
Link to one paper: Temperature and Economic Growth: Comment on Kiley
By David Barker, Econ Journal Watch, Mar 2023
https://econjwatch.org/File%20download/1259/BarkerMar2023.pdf?mimetype=pdf.
Link to second paper: Temperature and U.S. Economic Growth: Comment on Colacito, Hoffmann, and Phan
By David Barker, Econ Journal Watch, September 2022
https://econjwatch.org/articles/temperature-and-us-economic-growth-comment-on-colacito-hoffmann-and-phan
TWTW Summary: The links are what is important.
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