Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #546 – Watts Up With That?

The Week That Was: 2023-04-01 (April 1, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda.” — Michael Crichton [H/t Donn Dears]

Number of the Week: Unknown

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: The issues discussed include the following. Physicists van Wijngaarden and Happer have proposed a simplified two-part model of the atmosphere explaining how greenhouse gases inhibit planetary heat loss from the surface to space. Their model is superior to one-part models which lead to explanations that greenhouse gases act as a blanket. Their two-part model considers both radiation transfer and convection. Although the atmosphere is far too complex to describe in such a simple model, the effort is an improvement to the too simple thinking the led to the “blanket” description. Further, it recognizes how different greenhouse gases inhibit heat loss at different altitudes.

Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark provided a hypothesis on cloud formation and weather (climate) change. Normally, the earth’s magnetic field protects the Earth from high energy cosmic rays, especially by diverting the charged particles in the solar wind around the earth. If high energy cosmic rays hit the earth’s atmosphere, they promote the formation of nuclei around which water vapor can condense, leading to clouds, with a cooling effect. He has expanded the concept to supernovae, one of nature’s greatest explosions, may change evolution. He suggests that exploding supernovae may be important in the formation of new life forms in shallow marine environments during the Phanerozoic, the current geological eon beginning about 541 million years ago.

Two weeks ago, TWTW presented an effort by Gregory Wrightstone and the CO2 Coalition challenging the National Science Teaching Association’s (NSTA) Position Statement on Climate Change. The NSTA adheres to a “consensus” position that CO2 emissions are overheating the Earth, thereby ignoring the scientific method which has brought advances to civilization and prosperity over the past 400 years. Last weekend, at its annual conference, the NSTA had Wrightstone and other representatives of the CO2 Coalition removed from its conference just minutes after the conference opened. To NSTA new ideas are dangerous?

Last week’s TWTW discussed estimates from Goldman Sachs that the so-called Inflation Reduction Act will increase government expenditures (including subsidies) by $1.2 trillion between 2022 and 2031. Senator Manchin, who was key in passing the measure, is now expressing concern.  An editorial in the Wall Street Journal has a description of what is occurring politically.

In the UK, Andrew Montford has long expressed concern for the supposed “low bids” for delivery of electric power by the offshore wind industry to be built. These low bids were frequently cited as “proof” of rapid decline in the costs of wind power. Now the real costs are coming in. Montford explains why they are so high.

Ken Haapala submitted comments on the new EPA proposed standards for PM2.5 (fine particles) and Governor Youngkin’s proposal to withdraw Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The EPA’s PM2.5 standards and the RGGI are both are costly and devoid of any demonstrated benefits.

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Much Needed: Over the next several weeks TWTW will discuss key parts of a much-needed paper by Physics professors William van Wijngaarden and William Happer “Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer.” As shown by Christy and McKitrick and others, global climate models used to forecast dangerous global warming from increasing greenhouse gas emissions fail miserably when tested against real world atmospheric measurements including over 40 years of actual temperature trends of the bulk lower atmosphere, where most of the greenhouse effect occurs. The models also fail when tested against about 50 years of data from weather balloons gathered from the surface to about 130,000 feet (40 km) now launched twice a day in coordination from over 900 locations. Further, they fail when tested against weather reanalysis data. These models fail because they always overestimate the temperature rise due to the greenhouse effect, yet the projections from the models are being used to formulate energy policies in Europe and North America.

The paper by van Wijngaarden and Happer is much needed. But it is doubtful that it will be published in a western science journal because it contradicts the politically contrived science orthodoxy that has closed the minds of many once curious scientists. Therefore, starting today the paper will be discussed in some detail to continue over the next several TWTWs.

In focusing on key parts of this paper, TWTW will emphasize portions that discuss areas of significant misunderstanding about the greenhouse effect. It will add comments in brackets including explanations of what may be unfamiliar terms. To standardize terminology, as much as possible these explanations will come from Britannica, available online. Further, the altitudes of layers of the atmosphere range significantly with latitude. The tropical regions are far thicker than the polar regions. Unless noted otherwise, standardized atmosphere will be used. The US standard atmosphere separates into:

• “the Troposphere – ranging 0 to 11 km (36.000 ft) altitude.
• the Stratosphere – ranging 11 to 51 km (167.000 ft) altitude.
• the Mesosphere – ranging 51 to 71 km (232.000 ft) altitude.
• the Ionosphere – ranging above 71 km (above 232.000 ft) altitude.”

The abstract of the van Wijngaarden and Happer paper states:

“We discuss the basic ways greenhouse gases affect radiation transfer in Earth’s atmosphere. We explain how greenhouse gases like water vapor, H2O, or carbon dioxide, CO2, differ from non-greenhouse gases like nitrogen, N2, or oxygen, O2. Using simple thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, we show that the atmosphere of a planet with sufficiently high concentrations of greenhouse gases must develop a convecting troposphere between the surface and the tropopause altitude. The planet must also develop a non-convecting stratosphere for altitudes above the tropopause [where most water vapor freezes out]. In the simplest approximation of an atmosphere that is transparent to sunlight and has frequency independent opacity [lacking transparency] for thermal radiation (an infrared gray atmosphere), one can find simple formulas for the tropopause altitude, and for the altitude profiles of pressure and temperature. The troposphere is nearly isentropic (1) and the [lower?] stratosphere is nearly isothermal [constant temperature]. The real atmosphere of the Earth is much more complicated than the simple model, but it does have a troposphere and a stratosphere. Between the surface and the tropopause, the entropy per kilogram of real tropospheric air increases slowly with altitude [the lapse rate]. The entropy increases much more rapidly with altitude in the stratosphere. The stratosphere has a nearly isothermal lower part and a hotter upper part due to absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone. The thermal opacity [lacking transparency]of the real atmosphere has a complicated frequency dependence due to the hundreds of thousands of vibration-rotation transitions of its greenhouse molecules. Unlike the simple model where nearly all radiation to space originates at the tropopause altitude, radiation to space from Earth’s real atmosphere originates from both the surface and all altitudes in the troposphere. A small additional amount of radiation originates in the stratosphere. When these complications are taken into account, model calculations of the thermal radiation spectrum at the top of the atmosphere can hardly be distinguished from those observed from satellites.

TWTW footnote

1. Isentropic Chart: is meteorological map that shows the moisture distribution and flow of air along a surface of constant entropy, which is also a surface of constant potential temperature (the temperature a parcel of dry air would have if brought from its initial state to a standard pressure [1,000 millibars] without exchange of heat with its environment). The isentropic surface varies in height from place to place over the Earth, the variation being indicated on the isentropic chart by isobars, lines showing the pressure at which the isentropic surface is found. The moisture distribution is shown by lines of constant mixing ratio (which expresses the mass of water vapor per unit mass of dry air) and of constant specific humidity (which expresses the mass of water vapor per unit mass of air). [These give the ability to describe air currents.] https://www.britannica.com/search?query=isentropic

Next week TWTW will begin discussing specific sections in the paper. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/standard-atmosphere-d_604.html

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From Stardust? Some elements in human bodies came from exploding stars. In introducing a unique paper by Henrick Svensmark, David Whitehouse writes:

“A supernova is one of nature’s greatest explosions. It’s the endpoint of the life of certain types of stars that occurs with the outpouring of vast amounts of energy making the luminosity of the explosion many billions of times brighter than our Sun. In doing so supernovae scatter heavy elements throughout the cosmos allowing the formation of new stars, planets, and you and me. During the explosion they also propel protons and atomic nuclei at close to the speed of light. These are known for historical reasons as cosmic rays, and the pervade the galaxy and beyond. New research extends their influence on the long-term biodiversity of life on Earth.

Over the last two decades there has been significant progress in appreciating that cosmic rays have an important influence on the Earth’s climate through their influence on the atmosphere, both on short and on geological timescales. A decade ago, a connection between supernovae and life was discussed by Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark which provided a robust assessment of the change in supernova frequency over the Phanerozoic period – the era covers the last 540 million years, the one in which animal and plant life has existed.

In his latest paper Svensmark finds a close correlation between changes in supernovae frequency during the solar system’s galactic orbit and changes in the diversity of marine animal genera over the Phanerozoic era. He suggests that changes in the frequency of supernova in the Earth’s galactic vicinity and the area of shallow marine margins on the edges of continents have been vital in shaping the diversity of marine life. This is because the flooding of continents as they move opened up new regions where new species can evolve.

The interpretation is that changes in cosmic rays play a role in determining climate which is responsible for the available energy in the ocean–atmosphere system. Climate thereby determines the mixing and transport of fundamental nutrients like iron, nitrogen, phosphor, and carbon in the oceans and atmosphere. Although the correlations do not mean that there are no other influences are affecting diversity, they suggest an effect of supernovae on diversity.

But the idea of a role for supernovas in biodiversity is based on more than just the demonstrated correlations. Adding to the picture is that supernovae frequency correlates with the burial of organic matter in sediments over the past 3.5 billion years, supporting the hypothesis that supernovae link the climate, the flux of nutrients, and bio-productivity.”

For more on this intriguing paper see links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?

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No Longer Science? In 1966, physicist, Nobel laurate, and exceptional teacher Richard Feynman was invited to speak at the 15^th convention of the National Science Teachers Association. The topic, which he did not choose, was “What Is Science?” His thought-provoking lecture covered many topics including some of his childhood experiences. He distinguished science, religion, and pseudoscience. He said: [Boldface added]

“Another of the qualities of science is that it teaches the value of rational thought as well as the importance of freedom of thought; the positive results that come from doubting that the lessons are all true. You must here distinguish– especially in teaching–the science from the forms or procedures that are sometimes used in developing science. It is easy to say, ‘We write, experiment, and observe, and do this or that.’ You can copy that form exactly. But great religions are dissipated by following form without remembering the direct content of the teaching of the great leaders. In the same way, it is possible to follow form and call it science, but that is pseudo-science. In this way, we all suffer from the kind of tyranny we have today in the many institutions that have come under the influence of pseudoscientific advisers.”

In closing he said:

“I think we live in an unscientific age in which almost all the buffeting of communications and television–words, books, and so on–are unscientific. As a result, there is a considerable amount of intellectual tyranny in the name of science.”

And he closed with:

“It is necessary to teach both to accept and to reject the past with a kind of balance that takes considerable skill. Science alone of all the subjects contains within itself the lesson of the danger of belief in the infallibility of the greatest teachers of the preceding generation.

“So, carry on. Thank you.”

Based on the Scientific Method and physical evidence, the CO2 Coalition prepared a presentation on climate change that contradicts the National Science Teaching Association (NSTA) view which is politically supported and stems from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and its followers. The IPCC relies on global climate models that cannot describe current atmospheric temperature trends.

After paying their fees and being accepted, on March 23 a small group headed by geologist Gregory Wrightstone set up their exhibit at the NSTA conference. They were promptly evicted. Apparently, today, the NSTA prefers the pseudoscience of the UN to the physical science of Richard Feynman. Has “Science” become as dogmatic as any religion?

Meteorologist Cliff Mass writes:

“At the University of Washington and many other academic institutions, applicants for faculty positions must complete a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) statement that describes their past actions in support of DEI and how they will foster DEI if appointed.  In addition, these required statements generally demand that the applicant express support or commitment to DEI principles.”

Will this be similar to the US House Committee on Un-American Activities (HCUA), which former president Harry S. Truman denounced as the most un-American thing in the country today? See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry, https://profizgl.lu.lv/pluginfile.php/32795/mod_resource/content/0/WHAT_IS_SCIENCE_by_R.Feynman_1966.pdf, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scopes_trial

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Concerned about $1.2 Trillion? Last week TWTW discussed the latest estimates of the cost of the falsely-named Inflation Reduction Act by Goldman-Sachs – $1.2 Trillion. Writing in Wall Street Journal Senator Manchin who provided the key vote expresses second thoughts. He writes:

“America is fast approaching another needless emergency—the raising of the national debt ceiling. This impending crisis isn’t an accident but a result of the inaction of various actors who refuse to confront fiscal reality, sit down, negotiate, and make hard decisions for the sake of our nation’s future. While all parties have a responsibility to negotiate in good faith, recent actions make clear to me that the Biden administration is determined to pursue an ideological agenda rather than confront the clear and present danger that debts and deficits pose to our nation.

“Our national debt stands at nearly $31.5 trillion, or close to $95,000 for every man, woman, and child, and represents 120% of our gross domestic product. Annual budgetary deficits have averaged $2.71 trillion since October 2019. Since Covid-19 began, we have added more than $8 trillion to the national debt. Despite explicit direction from Congress to pay down our debt in the Inflation Reduction Act, the administration seems more determined than ever to pervert that law and abuse existing authorities to increase spending.

“When President Biden and I spoke before Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act last summer, we agreed that the bill was designed to pay down our national debt and shore up America’s energy security. It was designed to generate $738 billion in new revenue, with more than $238 billion dedicated to debt reduction, the first serious piece of legislation in more than two decades that the Congressional Budget Office estimated would have done that.

“Yet instead of implementing the law as intended, unelected ideologues, bureaucrats and appointees seem determined to violate and subvert the law to advance a partisan agenda that ignores both energy and fiscal security. Specifically, they are ignoring the law’s intent to support and expand fossil energy and are redefining “domestic energy” to increase clean-energy spending to potentially deficit-breaking levels. The administration is attempting at every turn to implement the bill it wanted, not the bill Congress actually passed. Ignoring the debt and deficit implications of these actions as the time nears to raise the debt ceiling isn’t only wrong, it’s policy and political malpractice.

“I believe the only person who can rein in this extremism is Mr. Biden.”

He then goes into specific suggestions that probably will be ignored.

In an editorial, the Wall Street Journal: “A Biden Bait-and-Switch on Electric Vehicles: As Joe Manchin feared, Treasury is rewriting the Inflation Reduction Act’s green subsidy limits” describes Manchin’s conditions for electric vehicles then states:

“The Treasury Department’s proposed rules for the tax credit drive a big-rig through Mr. Manchin’s conditions. EVs leased to consumers will be able to qualify for a separate commercial vehicle tax credit, which doesn’t entail sourcing, income or price restrictions. Dealers or auto finance companies could pocket the tax credits or pass them onto customers.

Treasury is also redefining “free trade agreements” to include one-off deals with countries that commit not to impose trade barriers on critical minerals. The White House struck such a deal with Japan this week and is negotiating deals with Europe to allay its leaders’ anger over the subsidy conditions.

Anode and cathode materials in batteries would also be treated as critical minerals rather than components. Treasury’s expansive definition of trade deals and battery components will enable more vehicles to qualify for both halves of the credit and all but blow up Mr. Manchin’s sourcing conditions. No wonder the Senator is angry.”

Historian John Robson describes the government policies as a new form of Mercantilism, protecting favored industries at the expense of others. In 1776, Adam Smith came out with The Wealth of Nations, opposing Mercantilism. Should Senators have a course in economic history emphasizing what causes nations to stagnate compared with what causes nations to prosper?

See Articles # 1 and # 2 and links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever.

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Heads I Win, Tails You Lose? In Net Zero Watch, Andrew Montford writes:

“Back in 2017, when it was announced that windfarms had agreed Contracts for Difference (CfDs) to sell power to the grid at extraordinarily low prices, the mainstream media and the Green Blob went wild with claims that we were witnessing a revolution in costs.

“Only us wicked sceptics said that it was a ridiculous suggestion, pointing out that there was no sign in the financial accounts or market announcements of windfarm operators to support such a claim.”

In a press release Net Zero Watch estimates: “The Contracts for Difference scheme has been badly designed since the outset and has already cost energy users £5.7 billion.”

The wind farms can choose to honor their bids or not. If they don’t, they don’t need to provide the electricity – let someone else to it. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind.

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All Pain, No Gain? In objecting to the US EPA’s new PM2.5 standards (National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Particulate Matter) the key parts of what Ken Haapala wrote are: [footnotes omitted]

“As a distinguished graduate of the US Army Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Warfare School Officer’s Course (since changed) in the 1960s. I became aware of the most lethal chemical agents in the US arsenal. These included nerve agents such as GB (Sarin, liquid, and vapor) and VX (liquid). I saw a demonstration project where one drop of VX was placed on the bare skin of the goat. Within several minutes, the goat was disabled and would have died if the instructors had not interceded. They injected the goat with atropine and pralidoxime chloride, then stomped on the chest of the goat to break the muscular contraction and administered artificial respiration.

Several minutes later the goat was grazing again, with no apparent ill effects. The facility kept a small heard of these goats for demonstration projects, frequently subjecting them to this procedure, with no ill effects to the herd.

We also learned of the rigorous testing of nerve agents on primates in the 1950’s to establish a dose required for the agent to be effective on at least 50% of soldiers exposed to the agent. In 1997 The National Research Council, Committee on Toxicology, produced Review of Acute Human-Toxicity Estimates for Selected Chemical-Warfare Agents.”

After discussing more background, he continues:

“Later, while teaching probability and statistics, I realized that, unfortunately, too often researchers use mathematics as a substitute for evidence, even when the evidence is weak, or contradictory. Mathematic is the language of science, but it can mislead and deceive. In physical sciences, including human health, mathematical results must always be tested against all available physical evidence. Mathematical speculation remains speculation until it is tested against evidence.

“Physical evidence, trumps speculation, mathematical or not. Science and medicine must be based on evidence, not speculation even if mathematical.”

In January 2023, the EPA announced that its new regulation on PM2.5 will avert 4,200 to 11,000 premature deaths but the page is no longer being updated. It emphasized mercury as well as PM2.5 from fossil fuel-fired power plants. Where is the evidence? The EPA’s February 15 Fact Sheet combines Mercury and PM2.5 (Fn 2) but they are different issues. It offers no references to rigorous science. Instead, there is a regulatory history, which is not physical evidence of harm to humans. Perhaps most fitting is a statement on page 13970 of the March 6, 2023, Federal Register:

“3. Most Benefits From HAP [Hazardous Air Pollutants] Reductions Cannot Currently Be Quantified or Monetized.” [Boldface added]

This section demonstrates that the EPA is regulating for the sake of regulation rather than for the benefit of the American public.

If claims of human susceptibility to PM2.5 were true, we should be seeing a massive increase in deaths in cities in China. According to Our World in Data, China’s CO2 emissions were 79 million tons in 1950 and 11.5 billion tones in 2021. This is an increase of about 145 times the 1950 value. Few power plants in China have filtration systems that all power plants in the US have. 

In 1950, life expectancy in China was 43.7 years, in 2021 78.2 years. This is an increase of about 79% of the 1950 value. [Note there was a sharp decline in life expectancy during the late 1950s and early 1960s. Not suggested, but this is probably from the Cultural Revolution] If EPA assertions are correct, we should be seeing a dramatic drop in life expectancy in China, instead it is one of the fastest aging populations in the world.

Further, if EPA proposed regulations were based on science, not politics, the EPA would be vigorously opposing smoking marijuana for both recreational and medical purposes. It is not. Clearly, the proposed regulations are a continuation of EPA’s campaign against fossil fuel power plants which provided reliable, affordable electricity for the nation.

His support of Virginia’s withdrawal from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (called Virginia’s CO2 Budget Trading Program) included examples of failures of wind and solar familiar to readers of TWTW before concluding with:

“Very simply, those promoting Virginia’s CO2 Budget Trading Program do not understand the importance of the greenhouse effect for life on this planet, the failure of global climate models, and the complexity involved in delivering 99.99% reliable electricity. Instead, they rely on a form of non-critical thinking exhibited by a pack of teenagers.

Governor Youngkin is correct in repealing the CO2 Budget Trading Program. Unless repealed, it will create great damage to the economy of Virginia and general prosperity for no benefit.”

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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON

SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.

The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to [email protected]. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.

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Number of the Week: Unknown. On page 13970 of the March 6, 2023, Federal Register: the EPA inserted: “3. Most Benefits From HAP [Hazardous Air Pollutants] Reductions Cannot Currently Be Quantified or Monetized.” If the benefits are unknown, and if the benefits come from eliminating costs, the costs must be unknown.

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

New study: Supernovae influence Earth’s long-term climate, bio-diversity and evolution

By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Mar 26, 2023