Hours after Yevgeny V. Prigozhin and his band of Wagner mercenaries ended their uprising on Saturday, Russian Foreign Ministry officials phoned the president of the Central African Republic to assure him that goods thousands of Wagner warriors deployed in his country will stay and that Russia will continue to seek new business ventures in Africa.
Thousands of miles away, and as the uprising was still ongoing, Russian troops in Syria besieged several bases housing Wagner fighters, fearing that the contagion could spread beyond Russia.
The Russian leadership had some problems with the “head of the paramilitary force,” they told the Central African president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, but those issues have been resolved and the Kremlin, they assure you, is in control.
But others are not so sure. The Wagner team is the personal project of Mr. Prigozhin, who has built it for nearly a decade into a massive business, with tentacles reaching out from Libya, across Africa and the Middle East. The group has deployed troops in five African countries, and in total Prigozhin’s branches are present in more than a dozen countries.
With Mr Prigozhin living in exile in Belarus and thousands of his mercenaries either living in exile with him or being forced to join the Russian military, it is unclear how the entire structure will be maintained.
John Lechner, an independent researcher who is currently writing a book on Wagner, says of the group’s executives in African countries: “They know the people well, they have the knowledge and the know-how about the group. Institutions.
“The Kremlin cannot replace these people and expect things to work the way they did before.”
Furthermore, last week’s mutiny was triggered by the Russian Defense Ministry ordering all Wagner members to sign military contracts with Russia, effectively destroying the group’s autonomy. The Russians and Syrians who work with Wagner in Syria also have similar requests, but it remains unclear whether the order will extend to Africa.
Details of Russia’s diplomatic efforts to reassure Central African Republic leaders after Prigozhin’s mutiny were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The Wagner group provides security for African presidents, supports dictators, violently suppresses rebel uprisings, and is accused of torturing, killing civilians and other ill-treatment. It also intervene in politics, organize propaganda campaigns and, in one case, even held a beauty contest. In return, it received cash or lucrative mining franchises for precious minerals such as gold, diamonds and uranium.
For years, up until the Ukraine war, Mr. Prigozhin denied any connection to Wagner and even its existence, and only recently did President Vladimir V. Putin acknowledge his connection. Russia with this group. That deliberately ambiguous relationship enabled Wagner mercenaries to take advantage of Russian military assets such as transport planes and heavy armor while posing as non-state actors. In return, the group provides Moscow with a vehicle to project power, often with indiscriminate violence, while denying responsibility.
For now, however, Wagner’s clients seem ready to believe Moscow’s promises, perhaps unwilling or, in some cases, fearful, contemplating operating without a hand in hand. group iron.
“Russia has given us Wagner, the rest is not our business,” said Fidèle Gouandjika, Touadéra’s special adviser in the Central African Republic. “If it’s not Wagner anymore and they send Beethoven or Mozart, it doesn’t matter, we’ll take them,” he added, alluding to the group taking its name from German composer Richard Wagner.
The Central African Republic is considered by most analysts to be Wagner’s most accomplished business model and a prime example of state takeover. Its dizzying range of operations and revenue streams clearly illustrate the problems the Kremlin will face in trying to assert control.
Wagner freely uses shell companies to conceal its activities, but through at least half a dozen known entities in the Central African Republic, it operates a radio station, a brewery and The next step is to bottle water.
It provided Mr. Touadéra’s bodyguards and trained the country’s troops.
According to a Western diplomat, it also controls hundreds of miles of formerly robber-infested roads linking the capital Bangui to the port of Douala in neighboring Cameroon, where trucks from companies affiliated with Wagner carry timber and other goods without paying tax. in Bangui.
“There are a lot of subsidiaries in Africa,” said Julia Stanyard, senior analyst at the Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, of the entities involved. with Mr. Prigozhin. “We only know the tip of the iceberg.”
Observers say that in countries where Wagner supplies soldiers for hire, the Kremlin may be able to regain some control more easily because the paramilitary group relies on funding and logistics provided by the Defense Ministry. provide.
In Mali, where some 1,500 mercenaries fight alongside the national army against armed groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, Wagner agents freely use transport planes. Russian military trucks to transport heavy weapons and rotate their troops, according to flight data.
In Syria, where the Russian military intervened in 2015 on behalf of authoritarian president Bashar al-Assad to help quell a years-long uprising, Wagner mercenaries operate alongside Russian soldiers.
As Wagner’s armored columns moved toward Moscow on Saturday, Russian troops surrounded at least two bases in Syria with Wagner troops inside, according to local news agencies.
For hours, Russian forces maintained their armed perimeter around the bases, one near Damascus and the other near the Syrian coast, fearing any move by Wagner fighters. Telecommunications are also congested.
The Russian deputy foreign minister later met with Mr. al-Assad of Syria to discuss “coordination” between the two countries, “especially in light of recent developments”, according to Syrian state media.
Wagner mercenaries in Syria have been told they have until Friday to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense. In the Central African Republic, a pro-Wagner Telegram channel echoed complaints from Wagner’s contractors about the signing of the agreement, but there was no confirmation that the order had been placed.
But it doesn’t matter to Central African officials, Mr. Gouandjika said.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said in a television interview on Monday that Wagner forces would not withdraw from Mali or the Central African Republic, he noted, adding that Dai The Russian embassy in Bangui sent a letter informing Central Africa. Republican officials don’t have to worry.
“Russia has long claws, but we can’t feel them,” Mr. Gouandjika said. “They are appeasing us properly.”
