Essays by Eric Worrall
According to Vox, providing “anticipated” disaster payments to poor countries before a disaster strikes is better than helping people survive a natural disaster.
Climate disasters hit the poor hardest. There’s a clear solution to that.
New experiments show the power of giving money right before extreme weather hits.
Via Sigal Samuel February 3, 2023, 7:00 a.m. EST
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Mitigation is a lot more common than adaptation. Of all the grants geared towards combating climate change globally, more than 90 percent go into the minimizer bin. And I can’t help but be surprised: For many years, I’ve mostly focused on that crate as well. I see mitigation as the way to tackle climate change, while adaptation is like putting a bandage on one of the world’s biggest problems.
And yet, who determines our reaction time scale to that problem?
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One approach to adaptation is to finance governments directly so they can build infrastructure — whether it’s breakwaters or new irrigation systems — to reduce the impact of shocks. These major public goods are certainly important, and they will receive a larger share of climate funding than they do today. But working on large projects like this can take time. For example, if you are a smallholder farmer whose food and income are about to be wiped out by a Tornadoes intensify climate changeyou don’t have that time.
So a new approach to adaptation aims to help vulnerable people by transferring cash promptly to them. That means free, no strings attached, money recipients can use to improve their resilience in the days or weeks before severe weather hits. Researchers can pinpoint when and where it will strike thanks to advances in data availability and predictive analytics. Recent experiments show how successful this approach is, making cash transfers expected to play a larger role in climate adaptation.
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Why do these countries need to fund instead of paying for their own sea walls?
In my opinion, the most likely explanation is that they are ruled by bandits who stole the funds to build the sea wall.
Any accumulation of money in such places attracts thieves with badges. Very little money achieves its intended.
Offering “expected cash transfers” is more likely to result in ruling kleptocrats upgrading their luxury cars, or armed thugs stealing seawall concrete to build palaces new, rather than vulnerable villagers getting a new sea wall.
If you have any doubts about rampant corruption and government-backed theft in aid recipient countries, please read the Kenyan economist by James Shikwati Interview with Der Spiegel”For God’s sake, please stop the aid“.
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