The United States is in the midst of an aggressive diplomatic push to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, as the risk grows that either side could start a larger war in the region. area.
In recent days, US officials have pressed their Israeli counterparts and delivered messages to Hezbollah leaders with the goal of preventing a broader regional conflict that they fear could draw in both Iran and the US.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with several Biden administration officials in Washington this week, on a large scale to discuss escalating tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. That visit followed a visit last week by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, and strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer.
Also last week, senior White House official Amos Hochstein, who has taken on an informal diplomatic role as a mediator between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Hochstein warned Iran-backed Hezbollah that the United States would not be able to restrain Israel if it committed to an all-out war with the militia group.
Adversaries for decades, Israel and Hezbollah regularly exchange fire along Israel’s northern border. After Hamas-led attacks on October 7 sparked an Israeli onslaught in Gaza, Hezbollah began firing into Israel, primarily targeting Israeli military targets in northern Israel. to show solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Fighting has increased in recent weeks and Israel’s scaling back of combat operations in Gaza, where it has significantly weakened Hamas, has freed up more of its forces for a potentially deadly offensive. can happen in the north.
The nightmare scenario for US officials would be an escalation in which, for a second time, Iran and Israel direct exchange of blows. In another round of such negotiations, the United States may not be able to control escalating tit-for-tat action as it did in April.
For now, US officials believe both Israel and Hezbollah want to reach a diplomatic solution.
During a visit to Washington, Mr. Gallant told Biden administration officials that Israel did not want an all-out war with Hezbollah but was ready to strike hard against the group if provoked further.
Among the officials who met with Mr. Gallant were Mr. Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and CIA director William J. Burns.
“The United States’ priority is de-escalation,” said David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the Trump administration. “Neither side wants war.”
Hezbollah was formed with the help of Iran to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. A much more formidable fighting force than Hamas, Hezbollah has amassed thousands of rockets capable of devastating Israeli cities.
US intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah intends to demonstrate support for Hamas by attacking across the border but is trying to avoid giving Israel a pretext for a cross-border attack.
US officials believe the Israeli government is divided over the decision to open a larger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Mr. Gallant, argued after the Hamas attack on October 7 that Israel should have responded by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.
Gallant’s views have since changed, according to U.S. officials. He now believes opening a new front is not advisable, officials said.
However, US officials and analysts say the risk of war spreading remains dangerously high.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing growing political pressure to restore security in northern Israel, where some 60,000 residents have been evacuated. Many hope to return to the area before the start of the new school year in September, but most say they will not feel safe enough to return as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.
Adding to the risk is uncertainty among the United States, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran about each other’s true intentions.
“The potential for this latest escalation and widening of the conflict is very high,” warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. “The risk of miscalculation and miscalculation is high.”
“Many people in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk-taking ability of the current Iranian leadership,” she added.
U.S. officials have no direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Mr. Hochstein conveys his message to the group’s leaders through Lebanese Shiite politicians informally affiliated with the group.
“He brought a very strong message, which is if you think we can tell them what to do or what not to do, you’re wrong,” said Ed Gabriel, chairman of the Task Force America in Lebanon, a nonprofit organization that advocates for democracy in Lebanon and U.S.-Lebanon relations, said. “You have to understand that the United States has no leverage to stop Israel.”
Mr. Gabriel, a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, said he has first-hand knowledge of communications. A US official confirmed that Mr. Hochstein gave this message.
In addition to urging both sides to show restraint, Mr. Hochstein also tried to convince Hezbollah to withdraw its forces away from the Israeli border, as required by a United Nations Security Council resolution passed after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
On Sunday, Netanyahu said in a television interview that Israel was demanding the “isolation of Hezbollah” from its borders to eliminate the threat posed by the armed group.
“I hope we are not forced to do so militarily, but if forced we will complete the task,” he said.
A larger clash between Israel and Lebanon could have devastating consequences for both sides. Israel caused a lot of damage to Lebanon in 2006 that the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have launched the war if he had known the damage that would occur. But Israel will also be bloody. Hezbollah claims it can launch 3,000 missiles and rockets a day, a barrage capable of overwhelming Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
And even if Iran is not directly involved, its other proxies, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi rebels in Yemen, could still step up attacks against foreign interests. interests of Israel and America.
Analysts and officials say a halt to fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to ease tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. But a Biden-backed plan to stop war and the Security Council is in doubt after Hamas’ additional demands and Netanyahu’s unclear statements.
Mr. Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said Mr. Hochstein was optimistic that Israel’s plan to shift to lower-intensity fighting in Gaza after ending the Rafah offensive could open a diplomatic window for a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
“He believes that this will give Hezbollah a ladder to climb down from their daily solidarity with the war in Gaza,” Hanegbi said on Tuesday during a discussion at Reichman College in Herzliya. “And that means being able to talk about a settlement in the north.”
A growing concern for US officials is the welfare of US diplomats and citizens in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
On Thursday, the State Department issued an advisory again warning Americans against traveling to Lebanon and emphasizing that the Lebanese government “cannot ensure the protection of U.S. citizens against outbreaks of violence and conflict.” sudden armed attack”.
