A masked person walks past a white-flagged memorial outside Griffith Observatory in honor of the nearly 27,000 Los Angeles County residents who died from COVID-19 on November 18 in Los Angeles, California.
Mario Tama / Getty Images
hide captions
switch captions
Mario Tama / Getty Images
A masked person walks past a white-flagged memorial outside Griffith Observatory in honor of the nearly 27,000 Los Angeles County residents who died from COVID-19 on November 18 in Los Angeles, California.
Mario Tama / Getty Images
Coronavirus has now been killed more than 800,000 people in the US, just two years after the first COVID-19 cluster was reported in Wuhan, China, and a year later The first vaccine was released.
Dr Helen Chu, an immunologist and epidemiologist at the University of Washington, said: “It is tragic on many levels.
Chu’s team in Seattle identified the first case of community spread of COVID-19 in the United States, as she and her colleagues pivoted to a nasal swab test for the flu to test for coronavirus — and raise alarm about its presence, despite political and bureaucratic obstacles.
With an increase fueled by more transmission variants of the coronavirus, the United States hit a tragic new record on Tuesday, shortly after surpassing 50 million COVID-19 cases – by far the most in the world. world.
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, correctly predicted some most annoying effects of the pandemic. But even he was surprised by the impact of coronavirus variants.
“I had a feeling [in early 2020] that this will be a protracted and very dangerous pandemic,” he said. What I didn’t understand at the time, and which has certainly influenced how I think it will continue to play out, is the role of variations. I think the variation problem right now continues to be the ball has a 210 mph curve that we don’t really fully understand yet. “
Various plans derail and promote increase
The US death rate has recently gotten worse: the seven-day average for daily COVID-19 deaths has been above 1,000 since Dec. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is much higher than in June and early July, when for many weeks the average mortality was below 300. That changed in late summer, when delta variation was kept in place, leading to new infections.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, areas of the United States suffered a sharp increase in the number of cases and deaths, the hardest hit counties include Maricopa, Ariz. COVID-19 Dashboard.
Experts now warn that the more transmittable omicron variation could bring in a new spike, just as many Americans had hoped to enjoy a relatively casual holiday season with friends and family. family.
To date, reports on the effectiveness of vaccines against omicron is a mixture.
“Certainly the data is related to a reduction in the effectiveness of two doses of the vaccine against omicrons,” Chu said, “but the booster dose seems to correct that to a degree. And so does all the waves. Another increase, the unvaccinated will become seriously ill. ill, hospitalized, and fill the former capacity of hospitals.”
Osterholm noted that health care systems are urging people to get vaccinated, warning that those in need of urgent care could find the system overwhelmed as they rush to the hospital.
“In many places, right here in these states, with these protracted surges, we are getting beyond our capacity,” he said.
Returning to his curve analogy, Osterholm said, “If the variations are a 210 mph curve ball, the omicron is a 500 mph curve ball.”
One scenario, he said, is that this variant could cause less severe illness – but still force many patients to go to the hospital right away, because of the high rate of transmission.
“I think within the next three to four weeks we will see the real impact from the omicrons. The question is how will that impact? And we still don’t know.”
With many people around the world unable and/or unwilling to get vaccinated, both Chu and Osterholm say more variants will emerge in the future.
Deaths to double by 2021, despite arrival of vaccine
Since the beginning of 2021, the number of deaths from the pandemic has doubled. Here is a summary of the major milestones the United States has achieved this year:
“It’s a shame that the country, which leads in immunology, virology and vaccination science, has stumbled in the development and deployment of vaccines to its people,” said Chu. “And it’s really horrible to think that a lot of those deaths are completely preventable.”
The First shot of coronavirus vaccine was administered in the US a year ago. As of this week, CDC says 72% of the US population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, although the number of people fully immunized has recently reached just over 60%. Despite the arrival of a vaccine, COVID-19 has killed more Americans in 2021 than in 2020.
Among older adults, the average age of COVID-19 deaths has been “decreasing rapidly,” Osterholm said, especially when vaccination status is taken into account.
“One of the things I’m worried about is the fact that people often abbreviate [the death toll] ‘This is a group of old people,’ says Osterholm.
Using Minnesota as an example, Osterholm said the average age of unvaccinated people who die of the disease in the state is 20 years younger than those who die of the disease.
“The unvaccinated is increasingly becoming a challenge at a much younger age, and we are seeing more unvaccinated 20, 30-, 40- and 50-year-olds die from COVID,” he said.
When the pandemic is over, COVID-19 may still be here
As for when the pandemic might end, many epidemiologists say it may require adaptation to COVID-19, noting how difficult it will be to completely eradicate the epidemic.
“I think we will have to learn how to coexist with this virus,” said Chu.
“There is a huge focus on vaccines, but continued concealment and testing need to be emphasized to prevent community transmission,” said Chu. “I would like to see widespread vaccine and mask regulation and easy and cheap testing available. That’s what has worked in other countries, and we should do it. here.”
As for how we can build on the lessons of COVID-19 when another pandemic hits, the focus should be on harm reduction, Osterholm said.
“Pandemics will happen,” he said. “They’re like tornadoes and hurricanes and earthquakes. What we need to do is be able to respond to them, so that we can minimize the damage. And that’s the important message right now, I think, that they are. What do we have to do to do that?”
Osterholm points to the challenges surrounding vaccines – from how they are distributed to how they are accepted by the general public.
“It’s a big deal,” he added.
