Ukraine war plan leak prompts Pentagon investigation

WASHINGTON — Secret war documents detailing secret US and NATO plans to build up Ukraine’s military in the face of a planned attack against Russia were posted this week on social media channels , senior Biden administration officials said.

The Pentagon is investigating who may be behind the leaks of documents that appeared on Twitter and Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users widely in Russia.

Military analysts say the documents appear to have been modified in some ways from their original format, exaggerating US estimates of war deaths in Ukraine and underestimating the number. Russian soldiers were killed.

Analysts said the revisions could point to an attempt by Moscow to disinformation. But the revelations in the original documents, which came in the form of photographs of projected arms supply charts, army and battalion strength, and other plans, represent a significant breach. of US intelligence in its efforts to assist Ukraine.

Biden officials are working to remove them but, as of Thursday night, have not been successful.

“We are aware of reports of social media posts and the department is looking into the matter,” said Sabrina Singh, deputy press secretary at the Pentagon.

The documents do not provide specific combat plans, such as how, when and where Ukraine intends to launch the attack, which US officials say is likely. coming next month or so. And because the documents are from five weeks ago, they provide a time-lapse overview of the U.S. and Ukrainian views, as of March 1, of what the Ukrainian military might need for the war. pandemic.

However, to the adept eye of a war planner, field general or Russian intelligence analyst, the documents certainly offer plenty of clues and insights. For example, the documents mention the spending ratio of HIMARS, a highly mobile artillery missile system supplied by the United States that can hit targets such as ammunition dumps, infrastructure, and concentration sites. army from afar. The Pentagon has not publicly said how quickly the Ukrainian military is using HIMARS weapons; documents do.

On Friday, analysts said it could be difficult to gauge the impact the disclosure of the documents would have on frontline warfare now and in the months to come. of Russia their own recent attack has been struggling to make a profit in eastern Ukraine, and Western analysts debate whether the Russian military, after suffering staggering casualties, is capable of launching another offensive or countering a Ukrainian attack.

It is unclear how the documents ended up on social media. However, military analysts said pro-Russian government channels shared and circulated summary slides.

Analysts warn that documents released by Russian sources could be selectively altered to expose Kremlin disinformation.

“Whether these documents are authentic or not, people should be concerned about anything that comes from the sources,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va. Russian news release.

For example, one of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers were killed while Ukraine had 71,500 soldiers killed. The Pentagon and other analysts have estimated that Russia suffered far greater casualties, with nearly 200,000 killed and wounded, while Ukraine had more than 100,000 killed and wounded.

However, analysts say parts of the document appear authentic and will provide Russia with valuable information such as the timetable for weapons and troop transfers, the number of deployed Ukrainian troops and the number of Ukrainian troops deployed. other military details.

A document labeled “top secret” states the “State of Conflict as of March 1.” On that day, Ukrainian officials were at a US base in Weisbaden, Germany, to participate in the exercises, and a day later, General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff , and General Christopher Cavoli, supreme commander. Allied Commander for Europe, visited sessions.

Another document includes columns listing Ukrainian military units, equipment and training, with schedules from January to April. The document contains a summary of the 12 combat brigades being assembled. , of which nine brigades appear to be trained and supplied by the United States and other NATO allies. Of those nine brigades, documents say six will be ready by March 31 and the rest by April 30. A Ukrainian brigade has between 4,000 and 5,000 troops, analysts said.

The document states that the device delivery time will affect the training and readiness response time. The document states that the total amount of equipment needed for 9 brigades is more than 250 tanks and more than 350 motor vehicles.

The fact that these documents could be posted on a widely circulated social media channel and perhaps end up in the hands of Russian officials, is a major coup for Moscow at a time when Russia appears to be following suit. behind the United States in intelligence gathering in Ukraine.

The leak was the first public Russian intelligence breakthrough since the war began. Throughout the war, the United States provided Ukraine with information about command posts, ammunition depots, and other important nodes in Russian military lines. Such real-time intelligence enabled the Ukrainians to target Russian forces, kill generals and forced ammunition supplies to move away from Russia’s front lines, although US officials say Ukraine played a decisive role in the planning and execution of those attacks.

But early in the war, Ukrainian officials were hesitant about sharing their battle plans with the United States, fearing leaks, American and European officials said. As recently as last summer, US intelligence officials said they generally have a better understanding of Russia’s military plans than Ukraine’s.

Concerned that sharing their operational plans could also highlight weaknesses and prevent continued US support, the Ukrainians defended them closely even as American intelligence was gathering costs. exact details of what the Kremlin is ordering and the Russian commanders are planning.

Intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States eased considerably last fall, and the two countries worked closely together on options for a Ukrainian attack.

But an intelligence leak of this kind, posted on social media and available around the world, would certainly harm intelligence sharing between Ukraine and the United States.

Thomas Gibbons-Neff contribution report.