The new long-range missiles, attack drones, tanks and other armored vehicles that President Volodymyr Zelensky has received from allies in recent days will satisfy many, but not all of them. including, the requirements for weapons that Ukraine said. for a counterattack against Russia.
Military analysts believe that at least some of the latest waves of Western weapons will soon be sent to the front lines to cut off Russia’s supply routes and attack artillery systems and centers. their command in southern and eastern Ukraine. Others could be delivered later, even in the fall or later, to help Zelensky plan future operations should the war drag on.
But the powerful package – announced as Mr. Zelensky visited four European capitals in the past three days – could signal that Western officials now believe Ukraine can recapture key territories in the protest. public, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a former Danish military intelligence officer.
“We wouldn’t have delivered this amount of weapons to Ukraine at this point, if we thought it was unlikely that they would succeed,” said Kirkegaard, now a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund research group. labour”. in Brussels.
Some Western officials hope that if the Ukrainians gain more territory, they will have more leverage in any peace talks.
Just last week, Mr. Zelensky was warning that the planned counter-offensive against Russia scheduled to begin this spring or early summer could be delayed unless Kiev quickly receives more weapons.
The European allies reacted within hours.
Perhaps the most significant commitment came from Germany, which on Saturday announced – just before Mr Zelensky landed in Berlin – that it would send Ukraine an additional 30 Leopard tanks and 20 armored fighting vehicles, 16 air defense systems, more than 200 drones and a wide range of drones. other weapons and ammunition. The leaders of France and Italy also made vague promises about sending light tanks, ammunition and air defense systems.
The additional Leopard combat vehicles and infantry that Germany is sending as part of a package worth 2.7 billion euros, or nearly $3 billion, will be most useful on the southern steppes of Ukraine, where Terrain controlled by RussiaIt is well-suited for “tank warfare or maneuvering”, Mr. Kirkegaard said.
But Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, notes that it is not clear that all of the new German tanks will be delivered anytime soon. (Berlin delivered 18 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.)
Still, he said, the pledge “helps give Ukraine a level of confidence” as military planners prepare for a protracted battle.
As of early March, only 31% of tanks and 76% of other armored fighting vehicles had been delivered to Ukraine in preparation for the upcoming counter-offensive, according to classified US military assessments that were leaked. recent leaks, although US officials say more has been transferred to Ukraine. months since. The Biden administration has also committed to sending 31 American-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but they won’t arrive until the fall at the earliest.
The promised new air defense systems could help alleviate US worries that Ukraine will not be able to defend itself as a counterattack approaches. Four of the 16 air defense systems that Germany has recently committed are considered among the most sophisticated on the market.
The newly promised Storm Shadow long-range missiles, to which Britain pledged on Thursday, help fulfill a longstanding Ukrainian request. The United States has so far opposed sending long-range American missiles to Ukraine, in part to avoid the possibility of escalation with weapons Ukraine could use to reach Russian territory.
Mr. Kirkegaard said long-range drones I commit on Monday is a particular threat to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and other locations in and near Crimea, including the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting occupied Crimea with Russia.
Crimea has been an important stage for the Russians operating in captured territory in southern Ukraine.
