Theory of “Effective Pain” • Getting it?

Tilak Doshi for wattsupwiththat.com

Your humble author has theoretical expectations and here is a theory for your consideration, dear reader. Bear with me, but here’s a nutshell. Governments and policymakers are constantly telling us that fossil fuels are bad and will lead to “the apocalypse.” Eventually appeared in the form of oil, gas and coal. Joe Blow would normally listen to self-proclaimed climate change experts and their official donors. He will incur higher gas and electricity prices, higher airfares for his modest holidays, and even more money for his beef because cows burp methane. After all, Joe Blow – a kind and humble man – wants to be a responsible resident of the planet.

But there comes a time when the burden on Joe’s shoulders hits the nerve, the trigger point of real pain, when he explodes. Looks like that’s where the Germans are with Prohibition of oil and gas heating from 2024 by the Scholz coalition government. And ditto for Americans with Loss of natural gas cooking stove threatened by the Biden Administration. Blue Peak seems to have happened when fragments of real pain hit people in the West.

Let me explain.

Green Cult

The Green Cult was formed a long time ago. Maurice Strong, a Canadian environmentalist and principal architect of the 1972 Stockholm conference – the first global summit to focus on the environment – published in 1997 that “If we don’t change, our species won’t survive… Honestly, we might get to the point where the only way to save the world is for industrial civilization to collapse. “

Strong’s prophecies about industrial civilization have come to fruition. Germany, the epicenter of the Green sect, is actively de-industrializing towards “renewable” energy and “fighting” climate change as we speak. Former Economy Minister of Saxony-Anhalt, Dr Horst Rehberger of the FDP, harshly criticized the country’s ambitions for “energy transition”, said in 2021 “Cheap and safe energy is essential for a competitive industry. Expensive and unstable energy supplies force companies to migrate to other countries that allow production to compete with coal and nuclear power.”

IN an interview in 2020Professor Fritz Vahrenholt – an important voice if critical of German environmental policies – had this to say about the main party in the coalition government: “Unfortunately, the SPD no longer cares about its customers. again. There’s been a party for the stylish, green urban crowd. But employees in the steel, chemical or car industries have gone missing. The elves will now be punished with CO₂ taxes starting in January.”

Maybe the best meme of the green cult is an image of an EV charging point powered by a diesel generator.

Only Carbon Dioxide Matters!

For the past few decades, we’ve come to believe that it doesn’t matter from the point of view of climate change that the Earth orbits the Sun in an elliptical and axial tilt, as described by Milankovitch cycle. Solar activity (frequency and intensity of solar flares) also has no effect on cosmic ray flux and cloud formation on the earth. It also doesn’t matter that it’s estimated that millions of volcanoes spew material and gas into the oceans, even if we wonder what that might be. Warm the oceans. Let’s not waste too much time on heat distribution between oceanic and atmospheric systems with global circulation associated with the oceans and atmospheres are complex and variable.

None of these or many other facts of physics and meteorology. The focus is on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by humans when burning fuels for industry, cooking, heating and transportation. For the green cult, CO₂ really the knobs of our climate and, by extension, our dire future, unless we listen to the wisdom of a school dropout in Sweden who deleted her 5 years old June 21^st predictive tweets about doomsday. Along with Greta Thunberg are “climate scientists” of all kinds global warming “hockey stick chart out of their climate model duly adopted by the UN’s politicized IPCC.

It also doesn’t matter that Vikings planted barley (for their malt beer) in its heyday in AD 1000. And if the Romans viticulture in the north of england (A.D. 800 – 1300) during the Medieval Warm Period, why it happened only once, relative to a limited geographical area and unrelated to the general global climate history of we. What really matters is industrialization and the human contribution to the dreaded CO2.₂or that’s what climate researchers tell us.

Maybe it’s fossil fuels helped our ancestors to escape endless hard labor, poverty, and a life expectancy of 30 to 40 years. It is also true that fossil fuels gave us steam engines, locomotives, and automobiles. They bring us healthier and longer lifespan. And they allow the world feed 8 billion people (from 2.5 billion people in 1950) are quite comfortable with increasing crop yields.

But all the miracle stories about our increasingly improved lifestyles since the industrial revolution are meaningless to the cultists. Our children will suffer heat deaths 10 or 50 years from now as sea levels rise, extreme weather affects countries, leading to mass deaths and migrations. famous predictor Paul Ehrlich warned us nausea advertising in the past few decades.

How dare you burn fossil fuels? So put an end to all that with your wasteful gas-guzzling SUVs and your expectations of cheap travel flights, your carnivore, your on-demand electricity needs. your. There is no planet B!

Effective pain theory

Joe Blows, the good folk, the salt of the earth, listens to the objections of the experts. They patiently limit their energy use; they pay a higher price for everything (because the price of energy permeates every goods and service consumed) and they make money. They share their paths with climate-anointed cyclists. But that is not enough, never enough. And one day, they come to pick up your winter heating equipment and order: you really need to give up natural gas and oil. And for those of you who like to cook with a natural gas stove, just strict regulations to switch to an electric stove are enough.

But like Marie Antoinette’s rebuttal advice to eat cake if you can’t afford bread, it can only lead to a social boom. So the Green Party get walled in the polls, and well deserved. And the Republicans of the United States put forward a house bill protesting the EPA’s move to ban gas stoves and launch action against those promoting ESG investment.

The theory of effective pain carries a The hypothesis may be wrong as Karl Popper, the methodologist of good science, asks. The effective pain theory states that although frogs can indeed be slowly boiled without their knowledge, they will not die a boil. There will come a time when the frog jumps out of the boiling water. Indeed, since we are not talking about frogs but about people, when they cross that inflection point, their rage and fury will lead to consequences. The Greens, climate advocates, will be punished at the polls in some form or fashion. Enough, Joe Blows will say. It is our world, and we will claim our place in it.

Long live Ordinary people

We hope to hit the critical mass. Indulged ideologies, laptop classes, sports people luxury creed As badges of their climate virtues, rule but not for long. The time is near, and the claims of false prophets will be tried in the people’s court. Long live the rule of fair and reasonable. Long live ordinary people!