The world has is expected to breathe a sigh of relief in 2021 — at least when it comes to extreme, radicalized thinking. Donald Trump has retired. QAnon, a cult movement based on the belief that a pedophile gang secretly runs the world, has lost its traction. Vaccines will end the pandemic. But far from seeing the demise of cults and extremist movements, 2022 will usher in their rise — and QAnon will prove to be the first step, rather than the culmination, of the growing appeal of extremist organizations and sectarian politics.
The growth of increasingly radical fringe beliefs will be driven by a growing distrust of authority and expertise. This skepticism isn’t new – we’ve been plagued by “fake news” headlines for a number of years. Next year, however, a strong ingredient will be added to the mix: fatigue, constant uncertainty around Covid pandemic.
Historically, religions have thrived in times of change, when behavioral norms change and stability is elusive. If anything characterizes the year 2021, it is the sense of constant change spawned by a novel illness. We’ve all experienced the ever-changing official stories and media strategies about Covid-19. We have also seen death rates continue to rise and social institutions break down under stress. This will continue into 2022, although we hope that the pandemic will be put in the past. Even the most extreme minded individuals will struggle to maintain their equilibrium.
Adding to that instability is feeling isolated We’ve all been through it in 2021, and extremism breeds this kind of exclusion and loneliness. In the early days of this year, we saw people being denied social contact because of lockdown, and some turned instead to the most unlikely alliances, looking for groups that would identify real and arouse their anger and frustration.
This will continue to be the case. It’s hard for the human mind to deal with uncertainty in the best of times. We crave certainty and hard numbers – not developmental knowledge and statistical warnings. And this is not the best of the times. “They’re lying to us!” It’s a battle of conspiracy theorists. By 2022, this will grow in number and lead to an explosion of extremist activities.
Now, we’re seeing what the early roots of 2022 will look like — in the increasingly radical voices of anti-vaccination community, in the anti-mask protests we’re seeing around the world, and in labeling governments like Australia’s “fascist” for keeping their citizens locked up. These are the seeds for an extremism that will stick, long and hard to uproot – it has become, embedded in core personal identity.
Cult-like extremist movements seem to provide an antidote to the powerful mixture of isolation, uncertainty, stories of change, and fear we’ve all experienced in the past. pandemic by providing a false form of safety, stability, and certainty, along with a group of people just like us who believe in us and believe in us. As activist David Sullivan – who has spent his life infiltrating cults in order to free loved ones from their grip – has pointed out, no one has ever joined a cult: They join a community of people who see them. In 2022, the appeal of these faiths will only increase, and the beliefs that arise the following year will make QAnon seem like the good old days.
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