By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
As la Niña’s third year in a row enters its phase, the new Pause has extended another month (and almost two months). No trend in UAH global mean tropospheric temperature anomaly since September 2014: 8 years 5 months and continuing to rise.
As always, New Pause is not a prediction: it is a measurement. It represents the furthest setback one can go using the world’s most reliable global average temperature data set without finding a warming trend.
The sheer frequency and length of these Pauses provide a vivid demonstration, understandable to all, that It’s not worse than we think – that global warming is slow, small, harmless and, according to the evidence to date to any extent, confer a strong net benefit.
Again as always, here’s the full set of UAH monthly anomalies since it began in December 1978. The uptrend has remained steady at 0.134 K for the decade-first.
The mild warming of recent decades, during which nearly all of our influence on global temperatures has arisen, has been far below what was initially predicted – and is still predicted.
In IPCC (1990), in Business-as-usual Scenario A, the emission scenario is closer to the outcome than B, C or D, predicting warming to 2100 is 0.3 [0.2, 0.5] decade-firstimplied 3 [2, 5] K ECS, as predicted by IPCC (2021). However, in the 33 years since 1990, the real world warming rate is only 0.137 K decades-firstshows that there is practically no acceleration over the decade 0.134 K-first for 44 years since 1978.
Therefore, IPCC’s prediction of mid-range decade warming is over 0.16 [0.06, 0.36] decade-firstor 120% [50%, 260%].
So why is there a growing hysteria – only in Western nations – about the imaginary and (so far, any degree) imaginary threat of global warming fast enough to become a disaster?
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