By Vijay Jayaraj
Fossil fuels have run out. Than is no longer king. The Middle East faces an oil crisis. These are typical headlines in the mainstream media.
Going unreported is the hard reality of the world’s fossil-dependent developing economies. This story is left untold as the media in the developed West is seeking to create awareness of an inevitable shift to hydrocarbon-free energy markets..
Whatever is behind the media’s ignorance – or neglect – of the rise of coal, oil and natural gas, it creates the false impression among the public that an energy industry is not fossil fuel use is feasible. Not so. Fossil fuels are predicted to be the largest primary source of energy for decades.
Who would have thought that coal would be one of the most sought after primary fuels following the anti-fossil pledges at the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow last year? Coal prices have hit historic highs due to increased demand from Asia-Pacific following the pandemic.
To those who closely observe the energy markets, this should come as no surprise. But for others, demand for coal seems unusual after being bombarded every year by climate conference attendees promising to give up fossil fuels.
Most Westerners do not understand that the demand for fossil fuels in developing economies is extremely high. Between 1990 and 2020, coal consumption in the US is almost halved and only a third in the EU. Despite this, global coal consumption has increased from 5.2 billion tons in 1990 to 8.5 billion tons in 2016. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Coal Report 2021 reports global electricity production. Coal demand will grow by about 9% in 2021, producing “more power from coal in 2021 than ever before. “This is because emerging economies are starting to use more coal as domestic energy demand increases and will continue to do well into the future.
Consider India, a country that will outpace every other country with an ever-increasing rate of energy consumption. The IEA reports that the subcontinent’s 25% growth rate will be the highest over the next two decades. By 2030, it will consume more energy than the entire European Union, making it the third largest consumer after China and the US.
Consistent with this, India has revised up its domestic coal production target by 20% – at least 1.2 billion tons of coal by 2024. Demand is expected to reach 1.5 billion tons by 2030.
The country expects domestic mines to cover most of the demand, with the exception of industrial processes requiring higher quality coal from countries such as Australia and South Africa. To achieve the goal, the government has relaxed some environmental regulations for the mining sector and is improving the transport infrastructure serving the mines.
As the global leader in fossil fuel consumption, China is moving in a similar direction. From 2013 to 2016, China’s coal production decline. While most of the world thought it would be impossible to return to previous output levels, this country has done it – and more.
China has steadily increased production since 2016 despite being a member of the Paris climate agreement, When China’s coal production for 2021 was reported, Western media outlets such as Britain’s Guardian lament that the all-time record high of 4.07 billion tonnes – 4% higher than 2020 – is a “severe blow to climate campaigners months after the UN COP26 climate talks in Glasgow”.
But this production record may not be anywhere close to what China may have to hit in the future to match its rapidly growing economy and energy needs. in winter. Along with coal, China’s oil demand growing There is no end in sight.
In general, the demand for fossil fuels by developing economies is so great that OPEC – the association of oil producing countries – forecasts that demand for oil wells will remain in the second half of this century. OPEC predicts that global oil demand can peak around 2040, although many predictions of such peaks have been wrong in the past.
The fact that fossil fuels will dominate the global energy industry for decades makes the sacrifices Westerners are making – high energy prices and shortages – aimed at saving the planet. from the global warming crisis is pointless.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at CO2 Alliance, Arlington, Va., and holds a Master’s degree in environmental science from the University of East Anglia, UK. He lives in Bengaluru, India
This comment is the first published on February 22, 2022 at RealClear Energy.
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