We are rapidly approaching what I call the “Green Energy Wall.” The “wall” includes some combination of real-world obstacles, part cost and part physical, that will inevitably end the quest for “zero emissions” electricity generation before the goal is reached. emission-free consumption. For the first time I determined the Wall was approaching This post is dated December 2021and commented that it “gradually comes into focus” in This next post is in November 2023. Everyone who is paying attention and has basic math skills knows that we are approaching this Wall, some jurisdictions much faster than others. (New York has voluntarily come first.).
What we don’t know is how touching the Wall will manifest: Frequent and widespread power outages? Are load shedding frequent and effective? Electricity prices tripled or quadrupled? A political uprising when people realize they have been duped by scammers who thought the energy transition would be easy and cheap? Or perhaps it will be all of the above.
Meanwhile, the years passed slowly. The impossibility of the situation we are delving into is becoming increasingly clear, but so far there is no clear crisis. Will it come in a year or two? Or maybe five?
Consider New York. Many laws and regulations impose on us energy transition mandates that simply will not be met. Among the fantasies were two major pieces of legislation passed in 2019, one for New York State (the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act), and one for the City (Local Law 97 ); and vehicle emissions standards adopted by New York’s Department of Environmental Conservation in 2022.
Start with vehicle emissions standards. in 2022 DEC adopted for New York standards and requirements set out in California Air Resources Board “Advanced Clean Automotive II” Regulations. California regulations require a minimum percentage of vehicles sold to be “zero emissions” starting with model year 2026 and then rapidly scale up to 100% “zero emissions” by model year 2035. Here’s a chart from CARB of the percentage of vehicles sold, by model year, that are considered “zero emissions.”:
Electric vehicles are not the only ones that qualify as “zero emissions” (e.g. hydrogen vehicles qualify), but electric vehicles are the only ones that qualify and also exist in meaningful numbers. . The 2026 model year begins around September 2025 — which is about 16 months away. What percentage of vehicles sold in New York today are “zero emissions”? One piece on March 6, 2024 in the New York Times sets the percentage of electric vehicles sold in the New York “metropolitan area” by 2023 at less than 10%. The article does not give numbers for New York State as a whole, but it is certain that the state’s figure – including rural upstate areas – is much lower than the percentage in the City and its suburbs . Meanwhile, multiple sources say electric vehicle sales have suddenly plummeted in the first quarter of 2024. (I can’t find statistics on that broken down by state.). But even as electric vehicle sales in New York State continue to increase in the first months of this year, will they really somehow reach 35% of total sales in a little more than a year? And then to 43% in just one more year, then 51% in another year, etc. to 100% in 2035? This is completely absurd.
Equally ridiculous is the regulation in the CLCPA that must have 70% of electricity output from “renewable energy” by 2030. Those responsible for implementing this regulation are completely incompetent and do not know what they are doing. What. After the Act was passed in 2019, the first important step in 2020 and 2021 was to shut down two zero-emissions nuclear reactors at Indian Point, which provide about 25% of New York City’s electricity and replace them with two completely new natural reactors. gas plant, thereby significantly increasing emissions. So to date, progress toward the so-called 70 x 30 target remains negative.
The signature initiative to achieve the 70 x 30 goal is the plan to produce 9000 MW of offshore wind power off the coast of Long Island. IN This post is dated March 5 I did the simple math to calculate that, if all that capacity were actually built, it would provide at best about 16% of New York’s current electricity consumption – before adding more new loads from the electrification of vehicles and home heating systems. . It is true that we have a large hydroelectric plant at Niagara Falls that they consider “renewable,” plus a number of other hydroelectric resources that, together with Niagara Falls, can account for up to 20% of consumption. So with those plus offshore wind, we can probably get to 35% of consumption. (Meanwhile, offshore wind projects continue to be canceled and delayed as developers seek to increase prices.)
How can we achieve 70% renewable energy in less than 6 years? They really have no clue. Something called a “Scaling Plan” was created under the CLCPA. It foresees the need for what it calls “Distributable Emissions Free Resources.” This is something that doesn’t exist now and probably won’t exist in any relevant time frame.
However, the lack of any viable alternative has not stopped New York from pledging to shut down well-functioning natural gas plants. Some were scheduled to close this year. But then, in November, someone realized that nothing could replace the crop, so The forced retirement of these four plants has been postponed by two years. News flash: two years from now, we still won’t have anything to replace these trees. The same thing will happen four years from now, six years from now, eight years from now, and ten years from now. Will they continue to delay mandatory closures? Maybe this is how we avoid hitting the Green Energy Wall.
And then we have Local Law 97, which is supposed to mandate that all large residential buildings (25,000 square feet or more) convert to electric heat, mostly by 2030. This will show Demand on the power grid will increase by about 30%. . This coincides with the forced closure of natural gas plants, only partially replaced by some very unusual offshore wind that will not completely replace gas production, let alone began to supply the growing demand.
Something has to give here, and it will give. It would be best if this happened quickly, instead of taking years.
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