Yes, the New England Patriots offense is a struggle.
Only five teams scored fewer offensive touches during the year: the Colts, Texans, Broncos, Steelers and Buccaneers.
That is the result. The cause is their associated attack strategy.
Specifically about early reduction. In the second half of the season (since week 8), the Patriotic team’s ranking:
- Ranked 29th in percentage of early drops achieving their first drop (20.5%)
- 30th place in third descending distance (7.8 yards)
Teams are usually NOT the same in both rankings. Some teams (most) don’t prioritize skipping the third down. So they may not have a high early drop rate to hit the first drop.
What these groups tend to prioritize, however, is establishing third and manageable scenarios. Let’s look at a few examples:
The Dolphins and Bengals offenses are a priority, and the priority is to skip thirds or less. They rank the top 4 by the percentage of early drops that achieve their first drop (both 30% and up).
But as a result, they often find themselves in the longer distance to go down to third. Because when a pass is not completed beyond the clubs in second place or below, it sets up in third and long.
So while they both rank top 4 when skipping the third down, they both rank below 4 by the average distance to go down to third.
Craig Carton says Mac Jones took the lead after losing to the Bills last week.
On the other hand, teams like the Colts and Chargers have little interest in skipping the third down. It seems that they prioritize putting their offense in controllable situations in third place.
The Colts ranked first in distance to third down (just 5.8 yards) but 30th in percentage of early downs to first down (20.3%). The charger is similar, ranking 4th and 24th respectively.
This is a suboptimal strategy, but it’s their strategy anyway. If they’re not skipping the third down, then at least they’re making them manageable.
However, the patriots seem to have no rudder and no direction of attack.
They are terrible at getting through third down (ranked 29) and equally bad at preparing for manageable third downs (ranked 30).
Only two teams in the NFL ranked below 10 on both metrics in the second half of the season: the Patriots and the team they’ll face Monday night, the Cardinals.
But at least the Cardinals rank better in both (#25 and #27 respectively). The Patriots are the only team to rank below 5 in both metrics, and they actually rank below 4 in both metrics.
New England must take a better approach to early reduction.
Use them to skip down thirds (ideally) or use them to set up a manageable thirds down. You cannot rank below 4 in either.
Arizona is a perfect defense against the patriots.
On early kills, Cardinals allow 29% of plays to lead to the first kill and thus skip the third kill. Ranked 31st in the NFL. And the second half of the season, it didn’t improve at all (29%, No. 29).
In the third leg down, the Cardinals’ defense is averaging 6.5 yards (No 26) and in the second half of the season, even worse, ranks 29th (6.1 yards) Older brother).
The Patriots have just played defense of the Bills, Vikings, Jets and Colts. On the season, using the same metric we discussed, these defenses rank:
Early drop rate to convert to first drop: 17th, 29th, 3rd and 12th respectively
Distance to go in 3rd down: 1st, 19th, 12th and 24th respectively
Now facing the bottom four Cardinals defense for both the second half of the season, the Patriots must necessarily capitalize on their early weaknesses and find a way past third place more often, if possible. And if that doesn’t work, set up a third reduction step that is manageable.
But if the Patriots fail to do so, as they haven’t been able to complete the entire second half of the season, they could drop below 0.500 on Monday night.
Jalen Hurts dominates early downhills
We expected the forward-thinking Eagles organization to pitch last weekend against the Titans’ pass defense, which was great against the run but lousy against the pass, and they did.
The Eagles are the No. 1 fouled team in the NFL when it comes to first-half fouls (77% of passes). And when it hit hard early in the first three quarters, despite massive growth, the Eagles still hit a 77% pass rate.
On these passes, Jalen Hurts is ranked:
- No. 1 in EPA/att (+0.56)
- #1 in success rate (65%)
- Ranked 4th in completion rate (79%)
- Number 5 in YPA (9.7)
Watch Colin finally say he’s ‘going out’ with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.
Hurts threw 321 yards alone on an early knock in the first three quarters. That’s the most number 2 for any QB in any game this season (Joe Burrow vs Falcons in Week 7).
Only eight QBs have posted a game with more than 245 yards of passing when losing early in the first three quarters of the game.
Jalen Hurts is the only QB to do it more than once — and he’s done it three times this year.
Raven lacks offensive talent and currently lacks Lamar Jackson
Over the past two weeks, in addition to Mark Andrews, Raven’s top three recipients in the routes that have run have been:
- Number 1: Demarcus Robinson
- Number 2: Devin Duvernay
- Number 3: DeSean Jackson
Robinson was dropped from the Raiders in August.
Jackson didn’t even join a team in August. Or in May, June or July. His contract with the Raiders expired, he did not join camp with any team and was a free agent until Raven signed him in October.
Duvernay is in the 3rd year of his rookie contract. Of the 93 recipients drafted in the first three rounds of drafts since 2000 to play at least 30 games in their first two years, Duvernay ranks:
- No. 93 on 93 yards per reception
- Number 85 out of 93 at the pick up yard
- Number 79 out of 93 in reception
Although running many routes 37 out of 93 these receivers.
The Raven team leading the run back this year is Kenyan Drake. Drake, like Robinson, was dropped from the Raiders in August.
This is the skill set that Lamar Jackson is working on.
And Team Raven played on the 8th toughest defensive schedule in the NFL.
And yet, the Ravens offense ranks 6th in efficiency this season.
Although playing with these receivers. Although playing with these RBs. Although playing this schedule.
Watch Nick Wright explain why Lamar Jackson’s injury was more devastating to Raven than Lamar despite his ongoing contract issues.
This says a lot about Lamar Jackson.
Raven currently leads 8-4 and is the 3rd seed in the AFC, not thanks to their excellent ball-collecting and running back.
Their defense was underrated (No. 9) compared to their attack, and their defense played on an easier schedule against fouls (No. 12) than the front line faced. .
Jackson injured his knee while out on Sunday and will likely miss several weeks with a PCL injury.
The Ravens can certainly claim that their strategy in trying to build a 2022 roster makes sense, because they’re sitting at the 3rd seed spot in the grand scheme of things.
But the lack of quality in the WR and RB positions made things extremely difficult for attack and Jackson. And as a result, Jackson doesn’t have the nearly five banners he might have hoped for entering the final season under his contract with Raven.
The Ravens had an extremely bad record as Jackson missed the starting games. Since he became a starter, Raven is leading 2-5 in games without Jackson. It will be interesting to see how productive they can be in a big game in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
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Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league brands and has also previously contributed to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He learned the technique before using his statistical acumen to create football prediction models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.
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