The ANC’s dilemma vis-à-vis the coalition government

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party is facing a dilemma that will determine the country’s future after it spectacularly lost its parliamentary majority in the election last week.

Having won just 40% of the vote, the ANC needs to find a coalition partner to secure a majority in parliament that will support its choice of president – unless the ANC tries to go it alone with a new government. minority government.

One option would be to reach an agreement with the second largest party, the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 22% of the vote.

However, this would be politically risky, as critics of the DA accuse it of trying to protect the economic privileges that the country’s white minority has built into the system of segregation. racial discrimination – a charge the party denies.

Alternatively, the ANC could team up with two progressive parties that have split from it – former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party or Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

These three parties have the same constituencies, a majority of them black, and their total vote reached 65%. Mr Malema warned the ANC against forming a coalition that would “strengthen white supremacy” and become “a puppet of the white imperialist agenda”.

This was clearly a reference to an alliance with the DA, whose policies were diametrically opposed to the ANC, but both agreed on the need to maintain the constitution that South Africa adopted at the end of the era. apartheid period in 1994.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has made clear that any coalition agreement must fall within the existing constitutional framework.

One of the major obstacles to a deal is the DA’s fierce opposition to the ANC’s efforts to create a welfare state – especially a welfare state. The National Health Service is funded by the governmentwhich the DA rejected, saying it was too expensive and threaten the future of the private healthcare sector.

The DA believes in the free market, opposes the minimum wage and wants to reduce bureaucracy, arguing that this is the best way to improve the economy and raise living standards for all South Africans.

It vehemently opposed the ANC’s black economic empowerment policies, seeing them as discriminatory against racial minorities while simply leading to the enrichment of cronies ANC business.

Denying the charges, the ANC has doggedly pursued these policies, arguing that they gave black people a share of the economic benefits from which they had been excluded during apartheid.

ANC President Gwede Mantashe went further to say that the ANC’s black empowerment policies were non-negotiable, suggesting that he had ruled out a coalition with the DA.

However, according to some local media, President Ramaphosa is willing to ally with the DA because he believes their policy differences can be overcome.

The ANC’s other option is to form a coalition with MK, which won a big election victory by securing third place with 15% of the vote in the first election it contested.

But they are demanding a new poll, alleging that they received even more votes but that the final results were rigged. The election commission has denied the allegations and MK is yet to present any evidence for his claim.

The gap between it and the ANC is wide, wider than any other party, partly because of the personal animosity between Mr. Zuma and Mr. Ramaphosa, who ousted him as the country’s leader.

As well as demanding a new president, MK wants the constitution to be torn up so that South Africa becomes an “uncontrolled parliamentary democracy” – something the ANC has rejected.

At first glance, this also rules out the EFF, as it is also demanding a constitutional amendment so that white-owned land can be confiscated without compensation.

Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader who was expelled by the party in 2012 for causing division and bringing the party into disrepute, said the EFF was ready to cooperate with the ANC in a coalition government. However, the party’s land expropriation demand is a “fundamental principle” and the party will not join the government if the ANC rejects it.

The ANC and EFF together have 198 seats – just short of the 201 needed for a parliamentary majority, so a smaller party will have to be brought into the coalition.

Or they could cooperate with Mr. Zuma’s MK, which also supports land expropriation and argues that agricultural land should be distributed on an “egalitarian basis among farmers.”

But to change the constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed and again the ANC, EFF and MK are just short of the necessary 267 seats – between them there are 256 seats.

Although the ANC opposes constitutional amendments, it accepts that current land ownership patterns need to be addressed.

In an interview with South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, former President Kgalema Motlanthe, a close ally of Mr Ramaphosa, said the “land issue” was “a source of national discontent”.

His comments suggest there may be room to reach an agreement with the EFF and possibly even MK on the issue.

The DA strongly opposed the deal between its three rivals, saying it would be a “Doomsday Alliance” that would turn South Africa into “Zimbabwe or Venezuela”.

“The Doomsday Alliance will plunge this country into ethnic and racial conflict the likes of which it has never seen before,” the party said.

But some ANC officials hold the opposite view – that stability would be threatened if MK were excluded, given its electoral success, making it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal.

KwaZulu-Natal is South Africa’s second most populous province and is often described as the country’s economic lifeline thanks to its ports.

It is also the most politically unstable province, with a history of violence – more than 300 people died in riots after Mr Zuma was sent to prison in 2021.

He was found guilty of contempt of court for defying an order to cooperate with an official investigation into corruption during his nine-year term, which ended in 2018.

ANC members in KwaZulu-Natal point out that with another case looming – Mr Zuma will appear in court next year accused of corruption in a 1999 arms deal – there is a real risk of a new wave of violence.

They therefore felt the need to reach some sort of agreement with him to draw a line in the past and recognize his status as a former president – especially since he had demonstrated that he commanded 15 % of national votes.

ANC leaders in Gauteng – South Africa’s richest and largest province – are said to support the agreement with the EFF, but their hand has been significantly weakened because the two parties do not have enough seats to form a majority in parliament.

That raises the prospect of an ANC-DA coalition, especially as it is favored by the private sector as the best option to ensure economic stability and avoid capital flight.

But South Africa’s respected News24 website reports that the ANC is considering the option of forming a minority government, and signing a confidence and supply agreement with the DA and the Inkatha Freedom Party, a predominantly African party. black with support in KwaZulu-Natal, which has 17 seats.

Both will vote with the ANC on important issues such as the budget, while the ANC will have to constantly lobby them – or other parties – to support the ANC on other laws.

This could help the ANC escape the dilemma of choosing a coalition partner, and it could also suit the DA, as a coalition with the ANC could cost it support among the parties have your rights.

However, there is a risk that a minority government could lead to political instability and “transactional politics” – opposition MPs demanding or being offered bribes to support ANC-sponsored legislation.

It’s still too early to say what will happen. All parties are still considering their options, but many South Africans are hoping that by the time parliament convenes, within two weeks, there will be at least an outline agreement on the next government How will.