Guest post by Willis Eschenbach
Our local media are pursuing their usual alarmism. Are from San Francisco Chronicles (there’s a wall of fees, so I quote). My emphasis.
This part of California has the fastest sea level rise on the West Coast. This is what is at stake
ARCATA, Humboldt County – Anchored by the cities of Eureka and Arcata and known for its redwood forests, cannabis-growing tourism, and cool, misty beaches, Humboldt Bay is also a bit different. Welcome: It has the fastest sea level rise on the West Coast.
Tectonic activity is causing the area around the bay about 300 miles north of San Francisco to sink, causing the rate of sea level rise to double the state average. Compared to 2000, sea level in the region is forecast to rise by 1 foot [305 mm] by 2030, 2.3 feet [700 mm] to 2050 and 3.1 sets [945 mm] until 2060according to the California Ocean Conservancy Council.
I saw that prediction for 2060 and I laughed. Three feet in forty years? No way. But the whole prediction turned out to be even worse than I thought.
Humboldt Bay is on the California coast a few hundred miles north of where I live. So, what does Humboldt Bay look like? Here is an overview. The main towns are Eureka in the middle and Arcata in the north.
Figure 1. Aerial view, Humboldt Bay. It is divided into the Gulf of Arcata in the North and the Gulf in the South… yes, you guessed it.
Note that the outer side of the bay is made up of two headlands, the North Spit and the South Spit. The channel leading into the bay lies between them. The town of Fairhaven is located on the North Spit. These are sand deposits deposited by the constant impact of waves and storms. Here is a clear description:
So this is not solid ground as we understand it. It is a displacement of sand, alternately accreted and eroded by wind, waves and currents.
But wait, it’s getting worse. The nice neat entrance you see below isn’t always there.
The entrance to Humboldt Bay, showing the North and South Slots, two jetties and canals.
Initially there is a shallow, ever-changing channel in that general position. It’s in a different location every winter and actually after every storm. It is harder to find at sea and harder to navigate. This is history.
SOURCE: Humboldt BaykeeperFascinating article.
Note that shortly after they brought in the south pier, the North Spit began to erode and change shape. And even now, annual dredging it is necessary to keep the channel clear — currents and storms move millions of cubic meters of sand/sediment each year. There is also sediment from the soil which you can clearly see in the photo above.
I bring all this up to point out that it’s no surprise that the southern tip of the North Spit is sinking. It is an artificial cut through a thin strip of sand, and sand and sediment are continuously removed from around the base..
And in addition, this whole area is located at the intersection of 3 tectonic plates, so there is uneven subsidence everywhere.
Somewhat haunted, I went and got GPS-determined subsidence rate around the Bay and I mapped them. As always…surprise, best part of science.
Dang… didn’t expect that. Near the southern end of the North Spit, where North Spit . Tide Gauge positioned, it drops (relatively) fast. The level of subsidence of 2.33 mm per year is equivalent to the level of global average sea level rise. So the relative gain there is higher than the real gain.
But just four miles (six kilometers) up the North Spit in Samoa, it only subsides at a tenth of that speed, 0.25 mm/year. Go find numbers.
The South Bay is also sinking. I suspect this is because it was originally a swamp. Since the 1890s, it has been extensively deepened and drained for agriculture and grazing, and wells have been drilled. So subsidence is predictable.
Continuing, how to record the average subsidence and sea level rise in the North Spit tide gauge record? This is NOAA on the subject.
Note that there is no indication of the rate of sea level rise at North Spit. It has been steadily increasing at ~4.9 mm/year since 1979.
With all of that as an opening, I’m back to the original COPC request, viz:
Compared to 2000, sea levels in the area are expected to rise 1 foot in 2030, 2.3 feet in 2050 and 3.1 feet in 2060, according to the California Ocean Conservancy Council.
Here’s a graph showing the same historical observations we see in the NOAA figure above (thin black line). Additionally, the chart includes several extrapolations for 2060 — straight line (red dot), exponential growth (yellow) and the above COPC prediction (blue).
The California Ocean Conservancy Council (COPC) forecast shown in blue is a sick joke. It would require an unprecedentedly large change in the rate of sea level rise … and then it assumes that the new very rapid rate of rise will remain unchanged for 38 years.
High…
Serious? What massive new source of water are they thinking that will suddenly become active tomorrow and then maintain that monstrous flow rate for the next 38 years?
And there is one more problem. IF (and it’s a very large if) the increase is 3.1 feet (945 mm), it will increase gradually, in some form similar to the yellow line. But the problem is that if change is slow, a lot of change will end up every year. So at the end of that increase shown by the yellow line, the annual increase would be 47 mm per year, well beyond anything reliable.
How unusual would this 47 mm/year sea level rise be? We haven’t seen such a rapid increase in 100,000 years. The fastest sea level rise during that time occurred when miles of ice from the last ice sheet was melting into the sea. The climax is in a period called Meltwater Pulse 1A … And during that time, the rate of sea level rise was 40 mm/year.
Not only that, there’s no mile-thick ice on Canada’s shield to melt anymore. Apart from some glaciers, it is gone. So where is the water supposed to come from to raise the sea level by 47 mm/year?
And lest you think these are just NGOs saying this, this is the view of the University, from Cal Poly Humboldt Sea Level Raiser Institute on this subject:
Sea levels in Humboldt Bay are projected to rise by up to 3 feet by 2060, which could lead to severe social, cultural, economic and environmental consequences if effective adaptation measures are not taken. . Other coastal areas in the Northern Coast region are also at risk.
I must say, I am constantly amazed at the unquestionable credibility of climate activists. The cycle goes like this.
Some “scientists” make an outrageous prediction. Then NGOs, government officials, and the media and other activist scientists, and the media consider it the gospel. Before long, it was an unquestionable part of the climate story.
The rest of the cycle is when some jokers like me come to point out that their predictions are rubbish, and people attack me for being a “climate denier” and not having a Ph. …
And tragically, that’s modern climate “science” in short.
If there is any takeaway from this, it reinforces what I humbly call the Willis First Funding Rule, which states:
DANGER REQUEST! increase funding.
Serious. If there is no threat, funding will dry up. These Councils and Institutes will lose their jobs if they say “Well, as best we can say there is no significant acceleration in sea level rise.” Humboldt Bay city officials aren’t going to hire someone to do some in-depth research into the continuation of past trends.
The same is true of the whole climate hype. Climate alarm is a huge industry at the moment, employing thousands upon thousands of people across the planet. And as Upton Sinclair has now noted,
“It’s hard to make a man understand something when his salary
depends on not understanding it. “
In any case, I advise the good townspeople of Eureka and Arcata to ignore what the California Ocean Guardians and the people at Cal Poly are saying. Their predictions are simply impossible. And the fact that they didn’t question that ridiculous prediction, when I knew it wasn’t workable as soon as I read it, says very little about their attention to detail.
And my advice in general?
When there’s both uncertainty and big money in the game, don’t trust anyone, “experts” or not.
Including me.
That’s why I link to my data sources — so you can check out what I’m talking about.
What more can I tell you about Humboldt Bay, and why do I like it? Well, one winter of 1970, I spent a week commercial fishing out there, laying and running crab pots. The crab boats on the North Coast are much smaller than the ones you see on “Killing people“. Many are 30 feet (9m) or more in length. Therefore, you can only upload a small number of jars to them.
So in the early days of crab season, it’s a frantic race to get all your pots in the water. Up 4:30 get off the boat. Cold. Pots have been loaded, jump on board, leave the dock. December dawn, a bleak but beautiful scene. Start breaking blocks of frozen squid for bait. Fingers numb from the cold. The engine crossed the bay and entered the channel leading to the ocean (top left center). The first day it was pretty calm, looking like this view south from the jetty south of the entrance to Humboldt:
Prime the pots and pour them on top, one after another. Then go back to load again. Back and forth all day. Go home after dark.
Up again at 4:30. Windy. Most harbors have a “bar” where river water flows out reducing its silt load. The Humboldt Bar is famous for its waves that can break the entire canal, preventing any boats from getting in and out. A lot of boats died there, so did the people.
SOURCE: North Coast Journal It’s a 44-foot Coast Guard Lifeboat that can survive a 360° roll. Don’t want to see that.
But that day the swelling was big, but not broken. Once again, icy fingers from handling frozen squid. Prime the pots and empty them. Then go run the pots from yesterday. Take out any crabs, put the pots back, back the board. Run back to load again. From there, “foam, rinse, repeat,” as they say.
And since I was only hired at the start of the season, to help get all the pots into the ocean, once I’ve done that, I’m free to relive another chapter of my lifelong goal…
Early retirement …
… And often
The best thing about commercial fishing?
If I had to have an office, it’s the most amazing office I know. This is the Humboldt Marina.
The best of this wonderful life for you, dear friends. I can only wish that you had more opportunities, lived your dreams more and questioned all the experts.
w.
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