CAIRO — Ever since pro-democracy protesters forced Sudan’s autocratic president to resign in 2019, neighboring Egypt has been eager to prevent a new civilian-led democracy from taking root. on the southern doorstep of this country.
Ruled by a military-backed government that came to power after an uprising against its own government in 2011, Egypt has seek to replicate similar leadership In Sudan, seeing a strongman is the best way to keep a neighbor stable — and no path to a democracy can inspire Egyptians. Egypt’s armed forces have offered to cooperate militarily with Sudan’s generals, while the country’s diplomats and security officials have pushed for talks in which the country’s civilian leaders Sudan argues that it will completely derail the democratic transition.
The desire for a like-minded partner led Egypt to embrace General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, one of the two belligerents in the current clashes in Sudan. The general, who heads the military-led Sovereign Council that will take power in 2021, has repeatedly met with top Egyptian officials, including President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In December, Mr. el-Sisi speak General he had “full Egyptian support for the Sovereign Council’s efforts to achieve political stability and security in Sudan.”
By supporting the status quo in Sudan, Egypt also hopes to gain an ally in its confrontation with Ethiopia, the next country to the south, over a giant Ethiopia-built dam, analysts say. built on the Nile threatened Egypt’s precious water resources. The Nile River flows through Sudan on its way from Ethiopia to Egypt, and both Egypt and Ethiopia have worked hard to get Sudan to their side.
The aggressive posture towards Ethiopia may help explain why the Egyptian army was stationed at a military base in Meroe, northern Sudan, leading to their capture by the Rapid Support Force – along with some fighters – are fighting with General al-Burhan’s soldiers.
The Egyptian and Sudanese militaries have conducted a number of joint military exercises in what some analysts see as a show of force for Ethiopia, where Egypt has sometimes threatened to declare war over human construction. dam.
Khalil al-Anani, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Arab Center who has researched Egypt-Sudan relations, said an Egyptian military spokesman said the soldiers was there for another joint exercise, but that statement “raises more questions than it answers”. . He noted that the Egyptian military had not announced the exercise in advance, as it usually does, and that it would be difficult to serve as a show of force against Ethiopia if it had not been made public.
Either way, the presence of soldiers became a thorny issue for Egypt. Although the RSF said it would work with Egypt to keep the soldiers safe and bring them home, neither side said when or how they would be transferred.
Egypt appears to be trying to prevent any public outcry over the fate of the military. According to Egyptian activists, on Sunday it temporarily blocked the websites of several news organizations. (They were unblocked on Monday morning.)
And prominent Egyptian commentators seem to be more focused on how the clashes will affect prospects for resolving the dispute surrounding the dam, known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
“The longer this situation lasts, the more it will affect you in Egypt,” Amr Adib, a popular talk show host, said on his broadcast Sunday night. “The instability in Sudan will affect the Egyptian state in many areas, not least of which is GERD.”
Others warn that if Ethiopia takes the opportunity to get involved in Sudan, Egypt could stand up to its interests.
Amre Moussa, Egypt’s former foreign minister, said on Twitter: “Egypt is expected to take a bold, decisive stance because our vital interests in this entire region are at stake.” “The possibility that Ethiopia could take advantage of the situation to exacerbate the dam problem is for us.”
But a violent conflict simmering on Egypt’s doorstep has implications for Cairo that extend far beyond the dam, raising the possibility that it could face a migration crisis from Sudan or other countries. other spillover effects.
Dr al-Anani said: “A failed state on Egypt’s southern border could create unimaginable problems for a country already grappling with a severe economic crisis. important.
