Guest comments by Kip Hansen – March 1, 2022
Lack of shocking evidence for shocking claims
The IPCC has rushed to release a new section of the IPCC WGII Friday Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability. The report itself and all its abstracts and chapters are available from IPCC website. I say rush out because when I download Chapter 15: Small Island at 5:00 p.m. EST February 28orderThe copy I received was still marked as “Last edited accepted version” and “Not quoted, quoted or distributed”.
They were absolutely right to mark it as “Do not cite, cite, or distribute” – I suggested expanding that to “Do not quote, quote, distribute, or read“. But, that would be a personal opinion. I’m afraid I didn’t follow my own best advice and made a mistake reading Chapter 15: Small Island. So if not “do not read”, I will follow by not do not quote, quote or distribute poison in this essay.
DISCLAIMER: This is in the Opinions section of WUWT and I make it clear that any and all opinions contained in this essay are those of Kip Hansen – they are my own – and do not necessarily represent the opinions of others. or the views of Anthony Watts, owner, publisher, editor. or moderators of this website. Anyone with objections should direct them to me personally in the Comments section provided at the end of the essay.
When it was first suggested today via email that I might write a short piece on the new IPCC report, I dutifully pulled down copies of the sections I thought I could address. useful way. I read Chapter 15: Small Island as I’ve been writing about sea level rise for various organizations over the past six months. I replied to that email as follows:
“The report appears to have been written by inmates of a lunatic asylum. Or maybe by beings from a distant planet writing about exoplanets for them Sol-3 or written by humans about some distant alien planet…. ”
I don’t want to be dramatic, unlike the writers (if any) of the IPCC report, but I can’t find anything in the highlight (singularized segments of the report labeled 15.3.1.2 or similar) It’s a:
first) extraordinary – as in something that was, is and will be obvious or “simple, plain, or immediately obvious”.
2) real in the real world as we know it, or
3) if guess or expectedactually is likely to happenat least on this planet in the near future.
This may seem like a harsh judgment but believe me, it is light compared to the reality – in fact what is missing from the Isles chapter of the IPCC report. Oh, I’ll admit, they got a few things right, such as the idea that all small islands are absolutely surrounded, on all sides, by the sea. Or not do not quote“Coastal cities and rural communities on small islands have been affected by sea level rise, heavy rains, tropical cyclones and storm surge.” In this case, already means over the entire historical period, or alwaysas far as we can tell.
“As of 2017, an estimated 22 million people in the Caribbean live below 6 meters, and 50% of the Pacific population lives within 10 km of the coast with 50% of our infrastructure. they concentrated within 500 meters of the coast.”
Gee is, for the most part true and utterly trivial, except for the part 22 million – the population of the Caribbean has more than doubled since 1960 to 44 million. More than 33 million of them live in just three countries: Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and on just two islands, Cuba and Hispaniola. Both of these islands are mountainous and not low-lying tropical islands. Another 6 million live in Jamaica or Puerto Rico, similar mountainous regions. Apparently, the authors of Chapter 15 have never visited the Caribbean or only gone there to drink in a beach hut (or perhaps ganja) alcoholics and holidays. There’s something seriously wrong with the IPCC math or altimeter measurement. Of course, there are no citations or references to the data; I suspect it’s a repetition from a dubious report somewhere. I managed to track the idea, but not a quote, sea level propaganda Made by Central Climatea member of the climate news group Including climate right now, of course, based on RCP8.5. Actual scientific data from that report:
“Local effects and shifts are generally modest in the Caribbean. For example, in a high carbon emission scenario, the Concentration Path represents 8.5 (Riahi et al. 2007), The average sea level rise forecast of the 21st century is in the range of 0.74-0.83 m . [ under three feet] on 12 tide gauges in this study. ”
“At the same time, the Caribbean also faces threats from chronic low-level flooding, exacerbated by sea level rise.and finally permanent flooding due to rising sea levels.”
Only the IPCC junkies at ClimateCentral can last RCP8.5 prediction never happened as far as done less than one meter in permanent flooding of the Caribbean.
While there is a near-universal consensus that there will be no real-world RCP8.5 scenario (at least not on this planet), the latest IPCC report deals with RCP8 projections. 5 14 times in this chapter alone.
That’s all that needs to be said – the IPCC authors are still in RCP8.5 la-la-la-we-all-death mode. Welcome to booby-hatch.
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Author’s comment:
See above, no apologies.
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