WASHINGTON – In the early stages of the war in Ukraine, troop shortages and equipment problems forced Russia to downsize its mission, abandon its offensive on Kyiv, and focus its attack on the east.
Now, as the fighting enters its sixth month, serious manpower and equipment problems could slow Russian operations and give Ukraine’s counterattack a better chance of success, officials said. America and Europe said.
There were many signs of Russia’s challenges: shells missed their target, Russian soldiers were intercepted and complained that they were being supplied with old tanks, and the number of dead and wounded increased sharply in the army ranks. this country.
But unlike earlier in the war, Russia may become more difficult to strategically reset and recover from, at least in the short term.
Few major powers have conquered a country and destroyed an opposing army with a force of mostly volunteers, as Russian President Putin is trying to do, US and European officials say. However, Mr. Putin shows no sign that he wants any kind of full-scale draft, which would lead his country to admit that the war in Ukraine will be a long one, not a long one. a short march.
Russia has announced, and the West has predicted, more pauses in the war. After the fall of the city of Lysychansk Last month, for example, Russian commanders said their forces would pause and reset, but artillery attacks continued.
This time, NATO and other officials argue that the reality is forcing the Russian military to slow down in order to reinforce depleted units, better protect its supply lines, and move equipment. new. These officials acknowledged that it is possible that Putin could ignore the advice of his officers and order driving eastward to continue through the summer. For all Russia’s equipment and manpower problems, high energy prices mean Moscow is making enough money to fund its military.
The expected Russian pause comes after the bloodiest phase of the war for both sides. Ukraine and Russia have lost thousands of troops, including some of their best and most experienced frontline soldiers, in the final weeks of the war. grinding artillery battleground destroyed cities and towns in the way of the Moscow army.
The Russian shortage created an opportunity for the Ukrainian military to decide to launch a counterattack, senior US military officials and US lawmakers who visited Ukraine recently said. The officials said more crime in Ukraine, most likely in the south, will happen in the coming weeks.
Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee who visited Ukraine last month with a small group of lawmakers, said: “The Russians are exhausted and you don’t want to give them away. them time to regroup and rest. “I understand the desire to attack when they are tired.”
Recently, a senior Defense Department official said that Russia has committed nearly 85% of its field troops to the war in Ukraine, drawing troops from the country’s far east and deploying them across the country. world. European officials say the Russian military has had a hard time bringing in reservists and recruits into the fray.
Estimates of how many Russian soldiers died range from 15,000 to more than 20,000, with thousands more injured or missing. Even conservatively, according to U.S. and allied intelligence officials, Russia has lost more troops this year than the Soviet Union lost in the nearly decade-long war in Afghanistan.
In its search for new recruits, Russia had to lower its standards, Western intelligence officials said. Putin signed a law removing the age limit for first-contracted Russians to join the military. Western officials also said they had assessed that the Russian military was lowering health and fitness standards and exempting those with a criminal record from participating.
Russia has tried to make up for its manpower shortage by using mercenaries from the Wagner Corporation, a private military force with ties to Mr. US intelligence reports say that while mercenaries can make a difference in specific battles, there aren’t enough of them to make a strategic difference in the larger war, according to officials evaluate.
US officials say Russia’s biggest problem is Putin’s unwillingness to release a broader draft. So far, the Russian military has not been able to recruit enough troops fast enough to compensate for those killed and wounded in battle.
Even if Russia decides to force more reservists and conscripts into the army, Western intelligence officials think Putin will face a serious bottleneck. The Russian military has deployed many officers and instructors who will train conscripts or reservists to the front lines, a decision that a Western intelligence official compared to eating corn kernels. Western officials say Russia has delayed its spring draft by two months, a sign that it is unable to train ready-to-serve people.
Although not as severe as the country’s manpower shortage, the problems with Russian equipment are significant. For example, Russian forces had to replace newer, more modern tanks with older versions. According to some intelligence estimates, Russia has lost a third of its tanks. Having used up its arsenal of precision-guided missiles, Russia has relied on artillery systems. But Ukraine’s use of sophisticated weapons forced Russia to push them back from the front lines, reducing their effectiveness.
US officials say Russia has a huge supply of artillery shells, the main weapon the country is using at this stage of the war. But even those are problematic, according to Western intelligence officials. Many have aged and are stored in poor condition, reducing their effectiveness by making their fuses unreliable.
US and European export controls have effectively put pressure on Russian arms manufacturers, at least temporarily, to slow or halt production of guided weapons high end and other advanced weapons. The shortage has forced the Russians to be cautious about targeting – one reason the military has limited its efforts to attack moving convoys and instead focuses on fixed targets such as warehouses. of Ukraine.
In recent weeks, Russia has used an air defense system, the S-300, to attack near ground targets city of MykolaivA sign that Russia lacks missiles more suitable for such attacks, Ukrainian officials said.
Senior US military officers say there is a shortage of Russian manpower, weapons and ammunition on the battlefield. New Ukrainian tactics – implemented by Western equipment – have also effectively limited the number of shells available at any time to Russia’s front-line troops.
Ukrainian soldiers used Weapons supplied by the US such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, to destroy dozens of Russian command posts, air defense sites, and ammunition depots, disrupting the flow of weapons to Russia’s frontline forces.
Brig. Christopher King, a senior British officer at a military branch in Stuttgart, Germany, which is coordinating the flow of Western-funded weapons and ammunition into Ukraine, said HIMARS and other rocket artillery have given allowed Ukraine to slow down the Russians’ ability to resupply. themselves, that’s exactly why we offer it to them. “
Of course, Ukrainian artillery and tanks were also destroyed. And a senior Ukrainian military official said that like the Russians, Ukraine lost some of its best officers and soldiers in the first months of the conflict. However, the official added, Kyiv has more officers with years of frontline combat experience, which proved decisive in the early stages of the war.
Assessments by American and Western intelligence give confidence that the coming weeks or months will be critical for Ukraine. Even if the Russian forces cannot be repelled significantly, strong counterattack could increase trust among Ukraine’s allies.
US and UK officials said Ukrainian officials have said they understand they have a limited amount of time to take advantage of Russia’s apparent weakness.
Representative Michael Waltz, Republican of Florida, a member of the congressional delegation to Kyiv, said the US should send more rocket artillery and other advanced weapons to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky told members of Congress that if Putin locked in on the current front line, Ukraine would struggle to maintain a viable state of affairs.
“Zelensky believes the Russians are in a moment of weakness as they rally to move forward before winter,” Mr. Waltz said.
Michael Schwirtz Reporting contributions from Odesa, Ukraine. Anton Troianovski also contributed reports.
