Guest essay by Eric Worrall
This may be our last chance to save the Chinese Communists from climate catastrophe, according to an AGU study.
Climate change could open up ‘rivers in the sky’ in East Asia
DAVID NIELD JANUARY 23, 2022
We know that the climate crisis has have a profound effect on global weather systems, changes in temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, etc. – and a new study predicts the future likelihood of flooding in the mountains of East Asia.
The pouring rain will be brought by atmospheric river, the scientists predicted. These narrow corridors of concentrated moisture can quickly cause flooding when they hit a barrier such as a mountain range, releasing large amounts of water in a short period of time.
According to the researchers’ model, rainfall in East Asia will become more frequent and severe in the coming decades as the planet warms. More water will be transported through the air and more precipitation will fall to the ground.
“We found that atmospheric river-related water vapor transport and precipitation both increased on the southern and western slopes of East Asia in a warm climate,” the researchers write in the paper. more pressure. published articles.
“Atmospheric rivers will bring unprecedented rainfall over East Asia under global warming conditions.”
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Read more: https://www.sciencealert.com/climate-change-could-open-up-rivers-in-the-sky-over-east-asia
Summary of the study;
Atmospheric rivers bring more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events in East Asia in terms of global warming
Y. Kamae, Y. Imada, H. Kawase, W. Mei
First published: December 1, 2021Areas of East Asia have often experienced extreme rainfall over the past decade. Dense atmospheric (AR) rivers, which transport swirling water vapor across mid-latitudes, have contributed significantly to these events. Although previous studies have shown that landfall ARs will become more frequent during global warming, ARs levels produce extreme rainfall over East Asia in warmer climates. more is still not clear. Here, we evaluate changes in the frequency and intensity of AR-related extreme rainfall under global warming conditions using a high-resolution regional and global atmospheric simulator. high prize. We found that both AR-related water vapor transport and precipitation enhanced on the southern and western slopes of East Asia in warmer climates. ARs are responsible for a large part of the increase in extreme spring and summer rainfall in the mountains. AR will bring unprecedented rainfall over East Asia in the context of global warming.
Read more: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL096030
Of course, the study covers RCP 8.5.
The study authors predicted an increase in water vapor transport and concluded that would lead to increased precipitation. “An increase in water vapor in warmer air alone can lead to an increase in AR [Atmospheric River] frequency of occurrence“. But where does the energy come from, to evaporate and transport all that extra water vapor?
The following is one of the few studies I’ve read that questions the assumption that warmer temperatures automatically lead to a significantly enhanced water cycle.
Limited working output of a heat engine in a humid atmosphere in a warming climate
The incoming and outgoing solar radiation pairs with heat exchange at the Earth’s surface to drive weather patterns that redistribute heat and moisture globally, creating a heat engine in the atmosphere. Here, we investigate engine working output using thermodynamic plots calculated from reanalyzed observations and from climate model simulations with human forcing. people. We show that the work output is always less than the output of an equivalent Carnot cycle, and it is limited by the power required to maintain the hydrologic cycle. In climate simulations, the hydrological cycle increases faster than the equivalent Carnot cycle. We conclude that an increase in the hydrological cycle in warmer climates may limit the heat engine’s ability to generate work.
Read more (registration required): http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6221/540.full
The point is, climate intensity has nothing to do with surface temperature, it has to do with how quickly solar energy travels through the climate system. This has nothing to do with the debate over whether CO2 or solar variations drive global warming, because I’m not talking about variations in surface temperature.
What I’m talking about is the flow of energy, from daylight to interstellar space, which drives the entire global weather system.
You may have more storms, or more rainfall, but not both. If the transport of water vapor and precipitation increases, the energy to supply that increased precipitation comes at the expense of the intensity of another atmospheric phenomenon, to keep the thermodynamic books in balance. . Climate change may reallocate the intensity of extreme weather – but any increase in intensity in one location must more or less balance out the decrease in intensity elsewhere.
Let’s just say I won’t lose sleep over the predictions of this study.
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