Russian President Vladimir V. Putin always seems to thrive on chaos. Now it threatens to consume him.
In the past few months, as the mercenary leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin While escalating his feud with the Russian military, Putin did not openly express any displeasure with his attacks. Silence has fueled the kind of political ambiguity that has long become a trademark of Mr. Putin’s rule: a management style in which he is comfortable with conflicts between the elite because they control potential rivals, while emphasizing that supreme power always belongs to the elite. his president.
Now that approach has backfired. On Saturday, Mr. Prigozhin’s forces gain control of important military facilities southwest of the city of Rostov-on-Don and threatened to march to Moscow, creating the most dramatic challenge to Putin’s rule since he was elected Russia’s president on December 31. 1999.
Putin’s tolerance of Prigozhin’s outbursts this year may have served his political purposes, analysts say, but it has stunned officials by the uproar Mr. Prigozhin’s verbal attack on Russia’s senior leadership concluded that he had tacit support of the president, analysts said. It also encouraged Mr. Prigozhin further.
“They are trying to decipher Putin’s behavior,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Center for Eurasia, referring to senior officials in the Kremlin and in the security services. , because Putin is silent.
The confusion over Putin’s personal views only ended on Saturday morning, when the president gave a five-minute address to the nation describing Prigozhin – without naming him – as a traitor and vowed to put down the uprising that the paramilitary leader had waged. started. But the damage was done.
There is no sign that Putin’s power is about to collapse. Other powerful men at the nodes of Mr. Putin’s informal power structure – like Ramzan Kadyrov, the powerful leader of Russia’s southern Chechnya region who controls his own paramilitary force — publicly voiced support for the president on Saturday.
These events, however, are a striking consequence of the informal power structure that Putin has built during his 23 years in power in Russia. For more than two decades, this system has helped Putin secure his unparalleled power, ensuring that he personally holds the keys to wealth and influence in modern Russia.
Those who know Putin say the president has always been comfortable with that personalized system, as it allows him to delegate key tasks to a trusted group of confidants while preventing the rise of political elites. rival factions could weaken him. And it ensures that the institutions of the state – from the courts to Parliament, the mass media to the many security agencies – remain merely instruments in the power plays between the periods led by him. Putin mediates, not sources of influence in their own right.
A Russian business magnate, reflecting on Prigozhin’s rise while speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Putin’s approach to his rule has always been “divide and rule”. As another said, referring to rival Russian law enforcement agencies: “You never know who will arrest you.”
ONE judo practice partner From his youth Putin became a billionaire builder and built Putin’s landmark bridge to Crimea. Putin’s KGB friends now monitor Russia military industrial park and it oil field. A friend from the 1990s in St. entrusted controls Russia’s most important private media assets and banks believed to be involved in Mr. Putin’s own financial dealings.
And then there’s Prigozhin, who met Putin more than 20 years ago as a restaurateur in St. Petersburg. He turns those personal connections into lucrative government contracts and presents himself as a ruthless, versatile problem solver on behalf of the Kremlin.
In 2016, as the Kremlin sought to sway the US presidential election to Donald J. Trump, Mr. Prigozhin got into battle with an internet “troll factory”. proceed “information war against the United States.” As Russia strives to expand its reach in Syria and Africa, Prigozhin has deployed his growing force of Wagner mercenaries to those regions — allowing the Kremlin to project power in the region. while minimizing Russian military activities on the ground.
In Ukraine, as Prigozhin says, Wagner’s army was called in only after Putin’s initial invasion plan failed. For much of the first year of the war, Prigozhin was above the law, as he toured Russian prisons to recruit thousands of prisoners to bolster his forces.
By early this year, the Kremlin appeared to be taking some steps to limit Mr. Prigozhin’s rise. Television commentators were directed to avoid mentioning him on air, and he lost his ability to recruit convicts.
But Mr. Putin does not appear to support Mr. Prigozhin. In May, he congratulated Wagner mercenaries for their role in capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, in a statement. post on the Kremlin website. Weeks later, he donate The Defense Ministry’s push for mercenaries to sign service contracts with the Russian military by July 1, a request that angered Mr. Prigozhin.
Now, as Putin struggles to quell a rebellion he warned Saturday could lead to “anarchy and fraternity,” Prigozhin looms like a work of art. created by the President of Russia.
Prigozhin “has no real independent power base except in favor of the president,” said Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia’s military and security. “However, this happens, it undermines Putin’s credibility and legitimacy.”
Neil MacFarquhar contribution report.
