President Vladimir V. Putin plans to follow through on his threat on Friday when he announced that some 40,000 square miles east and south of Ukraine would become part of Russia, an illegal annexation by the West denounces, but is a signal that the Russian leader is about to raise. stakes in the seven-month war against Ukraine.
It is unclear whether even Russia’s most loyal allies will recognize Putin’s move, and Russian forces only control part of the land he is expected to claim. But by annexing the parts of Ukraine that his military still occupies and then framing his effort as an existential battle for the existence of the Russian state, Mr. Putin could try to shift focus. the battle from front-line losses of the army to the one plane in which he seemed most confident: a battle of wills with the West.
“He thinks he can win,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a phone interview from Moscow. “He is inciting escalation of the war, shifting it to a new state of affairs.”
Responding to growing public discontent over the draft he ordered last week, Putin personally and publicly directed senior security officials to send those who had been wrongly drafted. home – a rare tacit admission his government has stumbled upon badly.
“All mistakes must be corrected and prevented from happening in the future,” Putin said in a televised address to the Security Council. “You need to figure all this out – no fuss, calm but fast, detailed and thorough.”
He made no mention of his annexation plan, which comes as Ukrainian forces are promoting attacks in the very areas Putin will claim to be part of Russia. But he managed to present himself as being on the right side of history, asserting in remarks earlier that day that “the formation of a more just world order is underway”.
“The unipolar hegemony is inescapably collapsing,” Putin said. “This is an objective reality that the West resolutely refuses to accept.”
The Kremlin announced the merger plan on Thursday, saying that Mr Putin would sign documents on the accession of new territories to the Russian Federation and give “an interesting speech”.
The ceremony will be accompanied by a celebration. Just outside the Kremlin’s walls, workers placed billboards and a giant video screen on Thursday for what state media described as an outdoor protest and concert on Thursday. Friday “in support” of the “referendum” on joining Russia – rigged votes have been held in Russian-occupied Ukraine in recent days.
The plan appears to be aimed at gaining public approval and support for the takeover.
Festivals aside, Putin’s announcement would signal a new and more dangerous phase of the war. Analysts say once he declares the Ukrainian territory to be an integral part of Russia – a declaration that Russia’s parliament and rubber-stamped constitutional court are expected to pass next week — he would rule out any talks on the future status of that region, analysts said.
And after approving the merger, Putin could also declare that any future military action by Ukraine there threatens Russia’s territorial integrity – a threat, he said last weekto which Russia’s nuclear-armed military could respond with “all means at our disposal.”
“This is not a hoax,” he added.
US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken on Thursday condemned the Kremlin’s plans, saying they were part of “a futile attempt to conceal what could lead to a further attempt to seize land. in Ukraine”.
“To be clear,” he added, “the results were arranged in Moscow and do not reflect the will of the Ukrainian people. The United States does not and will never recognize the legitimacy or results of these sham referendums or Russia’s intention to annex Ukrainian territory.”
The official choreography scheduled for Friday in Moscow repeats the festivities of March 18, 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea. On that day, he signed an accession pact with Russian-installed leaders in the Ukrainian peninsula, delivered a defiant speech at the Kremlin, and then rallied the Russians at a concert. evening in Red Square.
But this time, the scene is much more volatile and serious. While Russia captured Crimea without major fighting, Putin’s annexation would signal the escalation of a war that has killed tens of thousands of people. While most Russians welcome the annexation of Crimea, seeing it as an actual part of Russia, there is little evidence to suggest that the public believes that the four Ukrainian regions currently being annexed mean the same thing.
And while Russia took over Crimea when the Kremlin decided to annex it, Ukraine still holds the bulk of two of Friday’s annexed regions, Donetsk and Zaporizka. That raises a key question ahead of Mr Putin’s Friday speech: Will he threaten to use devastating force to force Ukraine to withdraw from what the Kremlin will consider Russian territory. are not?
Ukraine shows no signs that Putin’s threats will cause it to back down. In a speech late Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine reiterated his rejection of the referendums and said he was working with foreign leaders to coordinate a strong international response. strong.
“Our important task now is to act in concert with our partners to deal with the fake referendums organized by Russia and all related threats,” Zelensky said.
In Russia, Friday’s fanfare will come amid a chaotic “partial mobilization” of Putin – the large-scale military draft he unveiled on September 21 and which led to protests, attacks on enlistment offices and tens of thousands of people. men are trying to flee the country. Western experts are skeptical that the mobilization of conscripts will quickly reverse Russia’s battlefield losses.
One poll published by the independent Levada Center on Thursday shows growing anxiety about the war between the Russians – a conflict that much of the public had been adjusting to until Mr. Putin’s draft order last week. . The poll found that 56% of Russians said they were “very nervous” about events in Ukraine, up from 37% in August. When asked how they felt hearing Mr. Putin’s draft order, 47% described “worried, scared, terrified”, while only 27% said they felt proud.
But despite Putin’s defeat on the battlefield and difficulties at home, Russian analysts say he still seems to see a path to victory in the war – although it’s unclear exactly what he said. How will victory be determined?
Vasily Kashin, who specializes in military and political affairs at the Moscow State University of Economics, said in a phone interview that he believes the influx of conscripts can still turn the tide in the conflict. war and allow Russia to launch an attack in Ukraine. in winter. He speculated that the Russian military could even take control of more important territories such as the city of Odesa, leading to the downfall of Mr. Zelensky’s government.
At the same time, Mr. Kashin said, war is entering a “very dangerous period.” When the West sends more weapons to UkraineHe said Mr Putin would not accept the loss of control of the areas he plans to annex on Friday, even if it means using nuclear weapons and accepting the risk of nuclear escalation. .
“Tomorrow we will pass the point of no return. “Then we will not be able to refuse to defend these territories by any means, including nuclear weapons.”
Analysts and officials will be closely watching Putin’s speech on Friday for signals on how prepared he is to escalate the war. Carnegie analyst Kolesnikov said that even among the elite of Russia’s elite, there is anxiety and uncertainty about what will happen next.
“They don’t know what he’s going to think tomorrow, and what they themselves should think,” he said.
