Early open access of the new paper is here.
abstract
Every year, tropical storms affect wildlife and people in North and Central America. The ability to predict hurricanes is essential to reducing risk and vulnerability in North and Central America. Machine learning is a new tool applied to make predictions about various phenomena. We present an initial framework using Machine Learning with the aim of developing models that provide insights into the complex relationships between land-atmosphere-ocean systems and heat storms. zone. We study the activity variations in each Atlantic hurricane class according to the table and classification by NOAA from 1950 to 2021. By applying wavelet analysis, we found that the hurricanes of category 2–4 formed during the active phase of the semi-annual oscillation. In addition, our wavelet analyzes show that a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was only formed during the active phase of the decadent oscillation. Samples were obtained for each type of Atlantic hurricane, aggregating historical hurricane records during seasons of high and zero tropical cyclone activity. Using observed patterns obtained with wavelet analysis, we generated a long-term probabilistic Bayesian Machine Learning forecast for each type of Atlantic hurricane. Our results imply that if all such natural patterns of activity and the trend of Atlantic hurricanes continue and persist, further hurricane groups over the Atlantic basin will begin. between 2023 ± 1 to 2025 ± 1.223 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2025 ± 1 and 2028 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 3, respectively, for storm levels from 2 to 5. Their results I show that in the case of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes, they develop in five fairly well-defined hot deep-water geographies: (I) the east coast of the United States, (II) Northeast Mexico, (III) Caribbean Sea, (IV) Central American coast, and (V) Northern Great Antilles.
This is an email from Dr. Willie Soon about the article.
Dear friends and colleagues,
My good friend and competent colleague Victor Velasco Herrera and I
happy to inform you about this new article:
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/5/707
Predicting Atlantic hurricanes with machine learning
A new way of looking at and analyzing Atlantic Hurricane data allows us
to provide some cool previews of future activity:
“Our forecast is that there will be no Category 5 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic until the next wave
the active decadent oscillation period ranges from 2026 ± 2 to 2031 ± 3. For category 4 storms,
there could still be at least one event between 2022 and 2023.
The next active Category 4 hurricanes will begin in 2025 ± 1 and end in 2028 ± 1.
For category 3, it is expected that there could still be an event in 2022
while the next operational period will be around 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1 where
One can expect 1 to 4 Category 3 Atlantic hurricanes.
Finally, for Category 2 hurricanes, our Bayesian Machine Learning model
accurately predicts active episodes around the 1990s and early 21st century
(Clusters X-XIII are shown in Figure 8). The next active phase of a Category 2 storm will be
around 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1.”
Apparently, our unusual way of looking at the data almost assumes that our paper is unpublishable.
and was therefore rejected by the referees. Fortunately, we were able to explain and prevail with
referee of this magazine. Of course, there are obvious limitations to our work in that we
It is not possible to predict the intensity or track of any future storms.
Please help spread this article widely if you find the work meaningful.
Sincerely,
Victor and Willie (and all co-authors)
https://www.ceres-science.com/
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