Predict, pick, odds at UK Open 2022: Four can beat Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland at St. Andrews

With Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland sitting atop the leaderboard at the 150th Open Championship after posting matching 66s on Saturday, the golf world enters the final round on Sunday and wonders if we will see a historic end to the world’s oldest commemorative edition. golf championship.

McIlroy tackles his massive eight-year drought in St. Andrews will be one of the best stories of the year about golfespecially with the way he has played in the major championship so far this season with a top 10 record in masters (2nd place), PGA Championship (8th) and US Open (T5). A win for Hovland would cement his place among golf’s rising stars, putting him into a major championship season in 2022 that will feature all four winners under the age of 30.

But what if the Claret Jug winner doesn’t come from the last pair? What if someone makes a fee with a low number and both of our co-leaders come back? So who has the best chance of catching McIlroy and Hovland on Sunday?

Historically, the record for the last comeback at The Open is held by Paul Lawrie in charge of 10 return hits to make a three-man playoff and ultimately win. But the chances of McIlroy and/or Hovland taking a three-stroke lead on the 18th hole like Jean van de Velde did at Carnoustie that year seemed unlikely. More recent and real-life examples of notable final-round comebacks at The Open include Padraig Harrington’s six-stroke win in 2007, Ernie Els’ six-stroke in 2012 and five-stroke Phil Mickelson in 2013.

But none of them in St. Andrews. The winner of every 72-hole version of The Open played at St. Andrews within four strokes of the lead into the final was found, catching Claret Jug all 22 times, by Justin Ray. As such, here are the five contenders likely to catch up with the leaders of the 150th Open on Sunday. Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Cameron Smith (-12): After two days of doing nearly everything on the pitch, Smith failed to hit the putt with the same consistency as the championship’s 54-hole lead. Although he didn’t make many birdies, Smith kept his round until he beat a pony in 13th place. Those missteps and mistakes didn’t cost him too many positions. position on the leaderboard, but those two hits would have put him in a much better position to catch up with the leaders. As it stands, not only does he need to shoot somewhere close to 65 or 66 but hope that neither McIlroy nor Hovland score in the 60s. Ratio: 11-1

Cameron Young (-12): One of the PGA Tour’s hottest rookies put on an impressive performance on his Open debut, including how he saved an under 71 despite two bogeys and a dual bogey from his spot. in the final match. After 64 on Thursday, 69 on Friday and then 71 on Saturday, it will be remarkable for him to reverse the trend and return to that league-early form. But that’s often not how things go, especially with players early in their big careers. Ratio: 25-1

Scottie Scheffler (-11): A strong 3 under 69 has moved the reigning Masters champion up a notch and a little closer to the possibility of a second major championship title in this stellar 2022 season. Scheffler had his best day of the tournament to date hitting these Old Course lawns with approach shots, and it paid off as he set up five birdies for the day. Scheffler is a high proposition where you can almost count on 68 or 69 on Sunday, but that score will keep him from lifting the Claret Jug unless Rory and Hovland shoot across. Si Woo Kim came in at 11th with Scheffler, but he never even managed to get into the top 10 in 22 major starts. Odds: 20-1

Dustin Johnson (-10): With short par-4 greens and a knack for lag put, St. Andrews seems to have set it up well for Johnson to compete for his third major championship. Unfortunately, those efforts fell short on Saturday afternoon as the DJ had as many bogeys on his last six (three) holes as he did in the first two rounds combined. He has a very low chance of going through on Sunday, but the way he was knocked out by Old Course mounds and vaults at the end of the third round doesn’t bode well for an epic comeback. Ratio: 50-1

2022 Last Chance Selection Open Championship

Kyle Porter, golf senior writer: There are countless reasons why McIlroy will win his 150th Open. He’s done an unbelievably good job of not letting himself get carried away during a particularly emotional week. His game is still as neat as ever, and he is scoring points to prove it. St. Andrews is a magical venue, and Rory’s win the same week Tiger Woods left the course shortly after two of the greatest wins in golf history at this course was inevitable, it just seemed possible. out at the Old Course. Pick: Rory McIlroy (November 10)

Chip Patterson, writer: There’s no reason to overthink this: Even the data says there’s a slightly better than 50% chance that McIlroy will take the lead over Hovland and keep the chasers on Sunday. The confidence he exuded throughout the week supported the analysis, and it was time for a generational talent to be rewarded at another high point in his career in the Hall of Fame. McIlroy has never made it into the top 10 of all four professional leagues in a single season, and he not only did, but broke his massive eight-year drought at St. Andrews. Pick: Rory McIlroy (November 10)

Patrick McDonald, golf writer: McIlroy was riding on a wave of momentum, and it was as if he could do no wrong at the Old Course. This week is a year back to 2014, where he used to play with the perfect blend of fierceness and discipline. Eight years later, he will once again raise the Claret Jug and join Seve Ballesteros and Byron Nelson as a five-time major champion. Pick: Rory McIlroy (November 10)

Kyle Boone, writer: How far back is too far back? Five strokes – in these conditions, in this course, with this Starry charts – too many? According to Justin Ray, there is no winner in an Open held in St. Andrews won by more than four strokes at the 54-hole mark. However, it somehow made sense to Scheffler. After watching Justin Thomas escape from a seven-stroke hole into Round 4 at the PGA Championship back in May, Scheffler reckons to win the Claret Jug championship on Sunday doesn’t seem impossible. He’s been playing well all week, second in the field for hits on approach and has the line to make a big rally if his hit starts rolling. Pick: Scottie Scheffler (20-1)

Adam Silverstein, editor: Just because he stopped winning doesn’t mean McIlroy has struggled to play well in the professional leagues. Since 2014, he’s had 16 of the top 30 such opportunities with three of them coming this year alone. The problem is that McIlroy often starts off slow or leaves a low Round 1 score, often through backdoors. That was not the case this week as McIlroy consistently held the hot spot with a score of 66-68-66 through the first three innings. Rory clearly has the same home-field advantage as St. Andrews – the crowd is emotionally invested in his success – but he can block it and play smart, calm golf. What better way to end an eight-year drought than to win the 150th Open? Pick: Rory McIlroy (November 10)

Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme look at the odds table heading into Sunday at the Open Championship. Follow and listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.