Elements will be in place for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon and tonight in western Washington.
Let me show you the latest high-resolution model forecasts from the NOAA/NWS HRRR model. The images below are forecast maps of simulated maximum radar reflectivity in vertical columns. Higher values are associated with heavier rainfall.
By 6 p.m., very high temperatures (oranges and reds) are expected in western Oregon. Such high temperatures are associated with thunderstorms.
By 8 p.m., very heavy rain will move into central Puget Sound. Thunderstorms are a certainty.
By 9pm, storms in Puget Sound and the southern WA Cascades will be extremely strong.
These strong thunderstorms will move north by 11 p.m., hitting northwest Washington hard.
Strong thunderstorms, with low-level gusts, will produce strong winds. The same HRRR model shows a strong gust, with gusts reaching 40-50 knots (see forecast at PM).
Can we trust this forecast? The UW high-resolution modeling system, which includes an ensemble of multiple forecasts, is pointing to a similar (if somewhat milder) wind event (time increases to the right). Here’s from the Seattle WindWatch website.
Finally, let me give you a look at the situation at 2:30 PM. The latest weather radar shows severe thunderstorms moving north through the southern Willamette Valley. Oh my gosh… this looks like Oklahoma.
And the lightning strike map at 2:20 p.m. shows a large amount of lightning associated with these radar returns.
Make sure you are prepared for power outages and do not fly kites. Enjoy.
Don’t do this tonight
