Picking a Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf Winner Using History as a Guide

Yearly, the Breeders’ Cup attracts a robust contingent of worldwide raiders to problem North America’s greatest horses in a sequence of profitable races. And among the many 14 Breeders’ Cup occasions, not one of the World Championships races attracts a stronger worldwide presence on a year-to-year foundation than the $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Held at 1 1/2 miles, the Breeders’ Cup Turf is routinely received by worldwide runners however figuring out which is most probably to prevail will be difficult. With this in thoughts, we’ve taken a take a look at the historical past of the Breeders’ Cup Turf to uncover a number of noteworthy suggestions and tendencies useful for narrowing down the record of contenders.

Let’s discover among the key information to contemplate:

Any working model can succeed

The Breeders’ Cup Turf tends to unfold in truthful vogue, with each working model having a roughly equal likelihood at victory. Highland Reel (2016) led from begin to end, Tarnawa (2020), Found (2015), and Magician (2013) got here charging from far behind, and plenty of others have received from stalking or mid-pack positions. Class is what counts within the Turf — if you happen to’re ok, you’ll be able to win from anyplace.

Favorites have to be included within the superfecta

Between 2004 and 2017, a span of 14 years, only one favourite managed to prevail within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. However current years have seen a brand new development emerge, with favorites Enable (2018) and Bricks and Mortar (2019) getting the job finished at brief costs. As well as, the favourite has completed fourth or higher within the final 13 editions of the Turf, so if you happen to’ve been betting towards favorites solely, you haven’t been cashing any superfecta tickets.

Guess horses primarily based outdoors of North America

Over the past twenty years or so, the house staff has struggled to take residence prime honors within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Do you know 17 of the final 23 Turf winners had been primarily based abroad on the time of the Breeders’ Cup victory, leaving simply six wins for North America?

Guess foreign-bred runners, particularly Irish-breds

No nation has dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf as completely as Eire. Over the past 27 years, 14 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been bred in Eire, with all however considered one of them transport in from abroad to safe their Breeders’ Cup victories. Nice Britain, France, and Germany have additionally produced winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and all instructed, 22 of the 38 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been bred in Europe.

Guess Aidan O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute

A lot of Eire’s success within the Breeders’ Cup Turf is owed to coach Aidan O’Brien. The acclaimed Irish conditioner has received the Turf a record-setting six instances (all with Irish-breds), securing 4 of the final 10 renewals with Highland Reel (2016), Discovered (2015), Magician (2013), and St Nicholas Abbey (2011). Moreover, 15 of O’Brien’s 27 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters have completed within the prime three.

The file of Sir Michael Stoute is simply as spectacular with 4 wins and two seconds within the Turf from simply 15 starters, together with back-to-back wins with Conduit in 2008-’09.

Guess Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore

Two of essentially the most profitable jockeys in Breeders’ Cup Turf historical past are Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore. Dettori has ridden 5 winners from 18 mounts whereas ending fourth or higher on 12 events. Moore’s file is arguably even higher — 4 wins, three seconds, three thirds, and one fourth from 11 rides. To place it one other means, all 11 of Moore’s Breeders’ Cup Turf mounts have completed within the superfecta.

Suffice to say, when Dettori and/or Moore are slated to experience within the Turf, it’s clever to sit down up and take discover.

Grade/Group 1 winners are powerful to beat

It often takes a horse of confirmed high quality to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf. 9 of the final 10 winners had beforehand nabbed victory in a Grade 1 or Group 1 race, suggesting inexperienced and up-and-coming varieties are considerably much less possible than established stars to win the Turf.

Fillies and mares maintain their very own towards males

When a filly or mare enters the Breeders’ Cup Turf, it pays to concentrate. Over the past six years, 9 females have tried their luck towards males within the Turf, with Discovered (2015), Allow (2018), and Tarnawa (2020) nabbing prime honors. In each 2018 and 2020, fillies and mares completed 1-2.

With this proof in thoughts, there’s no purpose to consider fillies and mares can’t maintain their very own towards males within the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Quite the opposite, they’re within the hunt for victory as a rule.

A current victory isn’t vital

A serious key to successful the Breeders’ Cup Turf is to peak within the championship occasion, not in your earlier race. Six of the final 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners had been overwhelmed of their closing prep run, typically whereas going through more durable competitors within the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in France. 4 of the final 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners competed within the Arc a number of weeks prior, although solely Allow managed to win each races.

Conclusions

A formidable group of European raiders will take goal on the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Turf, so there’s a robust likelihood the historic tendencies favoring abroad challengers will maintain true as soon as once more.

Among the many better of the raiders are three elite fillies and mares. The primary is Tarnawa, reigning winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The Irish-bred mare exits a recreation runner-up effort within the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and should begin as the favourite at Del Mar, so she’s a very good match for the historic profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner.

Teona is one other logical contender if she begins within the Turf, though the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf can also be into consideration. The bettering 3-year-old picked up her first Group 1 win when upsetting Epsom Oaks heroine Snowfall within the Qatar Prix Vermeille Sept. 12 in France, however she skipped the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe because of unfavorable floor situations. The Irish-bred filly will arrive on the Breeders’ Cup with a comparatively mild marketing campaign below her belt, setting the stage for a attainable career-best efficiency.

However the very best match for the historic profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner is likely to be Love. Conditioned by Aidan O’Brien, the Irish-bred 4-year-old is a five-time Group 1 winner over distances starting from seven-eighths of a mile to 1 1/2 miles, with a nine-length romp within the 2020 Investec Epsom Oaks rating as her signature victory.

Love missed the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with an sickness and enters the Turf off a slim defeat within the Group 2 Blandford Stakes in Eire, however since a last-out victory isn’t vital for achievement within the Turf, this isn’t a significant concern. Ryan Moore has ridden Love in her final 10 begins and figures to retain the mount at Del Mar, which implies Love is a virtually excellent match for all our historic handicapping guidelines. Maybe we’ll see her spring a gentle upset?

Good luck along with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!