When the Patriots (6-4) come up against the Falcons (4-5) for the opening of NFL Week 11 on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), they will still look hot with their fifth win in a row. While New England want to keep winning to improve their chances of a stronger AFC playoff kick, the Falcons want to stay away from the NFC wildcard race.
Rookie Mac Jones is in good form in QB for the Patriots with a running style and a high level of defense. Falcons veteran partner Matt Ryan is struggling with an unstable season, as his weaponry is running low on a new strike.
Will the Patriots keep rolling or will the Falcons “raise” to get out of the carpet, like they did with the Saints two weeks ago?
Here’s everything there is to know about the Patriots vs. Falcons for Week 11, including updated odds, trends and our predictions for “Thursday Night Football”.
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Patriots vs. odds. Falcons for Thursday Night Football
- Transmitted: Patriotism equals 6.5
- On lower: 47.5
- Moneyine: -290, +235
The Patriots became a slightly larger contender than the original 6-point line in their favor. The Falcons don’t have much offense and the Patriots are mostly dominant in defense, which increases the overall lower score.
(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
Patriots all-time series vs. Falcons
The two teams have only met 15 times with a 9-6 advantage. They met in the 2017 regular season with the Patriots 23-7 victory in Super Bowl 51 rematch, in which the Patriots erased a 28-3 deficit at the end of the year to get another ring with Tom Brady. The Patriots had six straight games in the series, following the Falcons .’s four-win streak
Three trends to know
—77% of spread bettors think the Falcons are better than nighttime losers at home and prefer them to cover up inside an encounter.
—57 percent of over/under bets think the total score is too low due to the Patriots offense being on the rise and the Falcons could score some junk with Ryan.
—The Patriots are 6-4 to the odds and 6-4 in a row in their past 10 games, with goal totals surpassing half of them. The Falcons are 4-6 ATS and 4-6 SU in their past 10 games. The total has increased more than sixfold in that time period.
Three things to see
Who will run the ball for the Patriots?
The Patriots have hot rookie Rhamdondre Stevenson but Damien Harris has been allowed on to the field to join him for another powerful 1-2 punch in the bottom area. Hope the Falcons stop their escape and force Jones to defeat them on the way. However, the Patriots should still rush in effectively regardless to open up things on the field for Jones.
Who will catch the ball for the Falcons?
Falcons trade Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley, who is considered their top recipient, will be taking a break from individual competition. They also won’t have a second tight finish Hayden Hurst (ankle) for the game and the receiver/far receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle), their best and most dynamic offensive weapon of the season. The award for new coach Arthur Smith, is a game-time decision. The Patriots’ passing defense was tough with good pressure and good corners. Ryan could be in for another tough game following the Cowboys defeat last week. You can bet that New England will also plan to take his best remaining target, tight-ended rookie Kyle Pitts, out of the game.
Will Jones roll back or will Ryan recover?
Speaking of Ryan, he’s taking a roller coaster ride in another new offense for him, which tends to be the case. He has limited protection to lower level weapons except for Pitts. He must struggle once again with the Patriots’ amoeba plot. Jones should feel pretty comfortable with Dean Pees’ defense, as Belichick knows all about that. The run will set up a great pass to close Hunter Henry, wide receiver Kendrick Bourne and others.
Important Stats
246.2. That’s the average number of passes per game that the Falcons’ defense spends. They are not very good at controlling midfielders who can pass the ball around to a wide variety of players and also execute well on shots. The Patriots qualify to be such an offensive type with young, growing confidence Jones.
Prediction Patriots vs. Falcons
The Patriots are on fire, and with Belichick, they tend to be interested in so-called trap games like this. Belichick already owns the Falcons and that won’t change here across from Smith. Jones, back near Alabama in Atlanta, put on another strong run to further boost the offensive rookie of the year and, more importantly, bring New England closer to a return to the knockout stages.
Patriots 27, Falcons 20
