Paraguay, a landlocked country of 7 million people in the heart of South America, chose a new president on Sunday. The vote will test the strength of Latin America’s left-wing shift in recent years.
challenging opponent won The last 16 freely held presidential elections in Latin America, and six of the region’s seven largest countries have elected leftist leaders since 2018.
It will now be seen whether that trend can persist in Paraguay, perhaps South America’s most conservative country, as it grapples with deep poverty, a stagnant economy and corruption is deeply rooted.
The conservative Colorado Party is seeking to maintain its control over the country it has controlled for all but five of the past 76 years, including four decades under a military dictatorship.
But that dominance is now in jeopardy. Colorado’s incumbent, President Mario Abdo Benítez, cannot run for re-election because of term limits — and surveys show him as one of the most unpopular leaders in Latin America because of the way he has handled himself. pandemic agent. Representing the Colorado Party at the votes will be the former finance minister of Paraguay.
In January, the US government financial sanctions about the leader of the Colorado Party, Former President Horacio Cartes, accusing him of taking bribes to come to power. The sanctions have complicated the party’s finances.
Several recent polls have shown that the leading opposition candidate — a conservative who remains on the left of the Colorado Party candidate — is leading by a narrow margin.
The election, which included congressional, regional and local seats, highlighted the debate over diplomatic relations with China and Taiwan, the promise of a prison built specifically for corrupt politicians and late motivation for a committed far-right candidate dissolve The National Assembly and promulgated the military management system.
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, with results expected within hours of polls closing. Candidates need a simple majority to be elected.
Here’s what you need to know.
Who are the candidates?
The Colorado candidate, Santiago Peña, 44, is a former finance minister of Paraguay, a former economist for the International Monetary Fund in Washington and a protege of Mr. Cartes, the former sanctioned president.
While the Colorado Party has often built its support for socially conservative policies, Mr. Peña sees himself as the new generation of the party, one more focused on the economy. He has promised to create 500,000 jobs, provide free kindergarten, reduce fuel and energy prices, and have more police on the streets.
In an interview, he said he would pay for those promises by expanding the economy, and thus tax revenue, by removing red tape.
The leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, 60, is a conservative lawyer and former MP who leads a broad coalition of dozens of political parties, from the far left to the far right, that have linked banded together to overthrow the Colorados. Sunday was his third attempt for the nation’s highest office. In 2018, he won just 96,000 votes — or 4% of the total — from his presidency.
The son of a bus driver and preacher from rural Paraguay, Alegre has sought to portray himself as an ordinary man, promising to stay away from the presidential palace if elected.
He has built his campaign on a pledge to root out the “mafia” that he says controls Paraguay. He also promised to deport corrupt politicians to a new prison in a remote, arid region in the north and pay for free medicine by collecting what he said was $2 billion. Colorados embezzle every year.
“It’s not just about bringing about change, it’s about recovering what was stolen and giving it back to people,” he said in an interview on Friday.
While Mr. Peña and Mr. Alegre lead the polls, 61-year-old Paraguayo Cubas, an anti-corruption eccentric, has gained momentum in recent surveys.
Mr. Cubas is a former far-right senator who was expelled from Congress after wrestling with other lawmakers and kicking a police car. He previously attracted headlines for lashing a judge with a belt and then defecating in the judge’s office. He mainly ran his campaign on social media, calling Congress a “shack of bandits” and suggesting that he would rule as a dictator.
Analysts are skeptical that Mr. Cubas has a path to becoming president. Instead, they said, he could take the vote from Mr. Alegre and give the Colorado Party victory.
Why is a former president such an important figure?
Mr. Cartes, 66, left the presidency in 2018 but remains perhaps the most powerful man in Paraguay. In addition to running the Colorado Party, he had financial interests in tobacco factories, banks, pharmacies, television channels, newspapers, and a football club.
In January, the US Treasury Department banned him and his companies from participating in the US financial system, alleging he had ties to the Lebanese Islamist militant group Hezbollah and spent money. million dollars to consolidate his control over the government. Mr Cartes has denied the allegations.
Financial sanctions make it harder for the Colorado Party to raise money and pose a political dilemma for Peña.
In an interview, Mr Peña said the allegations were Mr Cartes’ “personal responsibility” and did not reflect the party or him. “I am my own person,” he said. The two men still appeared on stage together this week.
Mr. Alegre grasped the charges against Mr. Cartes, calling him the “Pablo Escobar of the Paraguayan.”
What are the other problems?
Criminal: Paraguay, long a haven for drug dealers, has been rocked by a series of high-profile murders. In one case, a federal prosecutor investigating drug cartels was shot dead by assassins riding jet skis while on a honeymoon with his pregnant wife on a beach in Colombia.
Economy: Paraguay is one of the Latin American countries hardest hit by the pandemic, and its economy shrank last year. A quarter of the population lives in poverty, many roads remain unpaved and hospitals lack basic medicine. Tax rates are among the lowest in the region.
Taiwan: Paraguay is part of a rapidly shrinking club of 13 countries, mostly small island states, that maintain ties to Taiwan rather than China. The friendship between Paraguay and Taiwan — signed in 1957 by their dictators — remains strong. Taiwan paid for Paraguay’s modernist parliament building and provided the president’s jet. But as a result, farmers in Paraguay face obstacles in exporting soybeans and beef to China. Alegre has vowed to review the relationship, which has annoyed US officials. Mr. Peña has pledged to keep the status quo.
Dams: Whoever wears the presidential gown on August 15 will also have to handle a crucial negotiation over Itaipú, a massive hydroelectric dam shared with Brazil. Under a 1973 treaty, Paraguay sold backup energy from the dam to Brazil at the lowest price. But the pact expires in August, opening the door to a transition deal for the poorer country.
What is the state of the race?
Polls show a close race between Mr Peña and Mr Alegre, with each candidate leading several surveys. (Previous Paraguayan pollsters were often inaccurate. In 2018, polls overestimated support for the Colorado candidate.)
AtlasIntel, a Brazilian polling company, said according to a recent report online poll Of the 2,320 Paraguayans, Mr. Alegre leads with 34%, Mr. Peña with 33% and Mr. Cubas with 23%. The error is 2 percentage points. The biggest surprise of the poll was the level of support for Mr. Cubas.
In interviews in the capital Asunción on Friday, Paraguayans said they were frustrated with corruption and the country’s policies, but they had different opinions about who was the right person to replace them. change it.
Juana Salinas, 74, was waiting for a bus outside a market, with a black stick and a garbage bag filled with food containers for sale. She said she supported Mr. Peña because she always voted for Colorado, like her deceased parents. “Always, because I won’t dishonor my parents,” she said. “My father is Colorado, my mother is Colorado.”
Inside the market, 29-year-old Cynthia Acosta is packing dried corn kernels that customers often use to make chipa guasú, or Paraguayan corn tortillas. She said she plans to vote for Mr Alegre again, as she likes his plan to create jobs for young people.
“There are a lot of things that need to change,” she said. “It’s not an easy job for anyone.”
