POUGHKEEPSIE, NY – For much of his early political career, Lee M. Zeldin was a classic Long Island moderate Republican: As an Army officer elected to the State Senate, he served working with Democrats to champion causes like tax cuts, veterans benefits and even beer, protect the breweries in his county and elsewhere.
That centralism began to fade after Mr. Zeldin was elected to Congress in 2014 and was completely abolished following the election of President Donald J. Trump. Mr Zeldin was one of the previous House Republicans to embrace Mr Trump, loyalty culminating in his vote. overturn the results of the 2020 election in critical rotational states.
Now Mr Zeldin may be forced to reconcile past and present stances as he pursues his run for governor this year, a difficult balancing act that will require him to win the election. surprising Republican quadruple primaries on Tuesday and then try to appeal. to a much more moderate general electorate.
Mr. Zeldin has largely been in the right lane, demonstrating allegiance to a range of conservative icons, including Second Amendment support, abortion rejection and fetishism to Mr.
In some cases, though, he seems mindful of the general election audience, a nuance that has emerged in subtle ways in debates, interviews and right at the base of the tree.
Mr Zeldin, for example, celebrated the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade on Friday, calling it “a victory for life, for the family, for the constitution and for federalism” ” and added that “New York clearly needs to do a much better job promoting, respecting and protecting life.” But last month, before making the decision, he also wanted to stress that “nothing has changed” for states like New York, which already respect abortion rights.
In the Second Amendment, Mr Zeldin welcomed the Supreme Court’s decision on Thursday to repeal a centuries-old law that placed strict limits on carrying handguns, calling it was “a historic, right and necessary victory”. He also said he wants to overturn the state law of 2013 – Safety Act – state gun laws have tightened.
But after the recent massacre at a Buffalo supermarket, Mr. Zeldin Step back a call for the repeal of the so-called red flag law, banning gun ownership for those seen as a threat to themselves and others. He explained that he simply felt such laws should not apply to “law-abiding New Yorkers.”
And even as Mr. Zeldin attacked opponents for being “never Trumpers” and only on behalf of Republicans, he stopped short of saying the 2020 election was stolen and not properly endorsed. Trump’s 2024 campaign in the first debate of the candidates.
“If President Trump wants to run,” Zeldin said, “he should run.”
On Tuesday, when asked in The final debate of the candidates – hosted by Newsmax, the conservative cable network – if he were politically closer to Mr Trump or former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr Zeldin declined, saying he was “his own man” – and drew mixed reactions from live audiences at Rochester.
Indeed, the challenge Mr. Zeldin, the presumptive Republican-backed frontrunner, faces all four of the party’s candidates ahead of Tuesday’s primaries: How to attract voters primary voters, yearning for red meat issues like crime, immigration, and welfare, while not alienating more average voters who aren’t happy with President Biden or Governor Kathy Hochul, The incumbent Democrats are backed to win the primaries on Tuesday.
Political consultants from both parties say such a balancing act is central to achieving one of the most difficult tasks in American politics: winning a statewide race in New York. York as a Republican.
No Republican has done so since George E. Pataki won a third term as governor in 2002. And in the decades since, the task has become more difficult as staffing staff. The state’s demographics gradually skewed to the left while New York Republicans – once known to centrists like former governor Nelson A. Rockefeller – were staunchly pro-right.
“Right now you have a race to the absolute bottom, talking about what he describes as the Republican party spoiling the election,” said Jefrey Pollock, veteran pollster who works with Hochul. right-wing trio. “So what you get is that the Republican candidates are going to be wildly out of step with voters in the general election on the things that are going to be in the news, like guns and abortion and Donald Trump.”
Mr. Zeldin’s victory in the primaries is far from guaranteed, with a morale challenge coming from three opponents: Rob Astorino, a former Westchester County executive; Harry Wilson, a company rotation specialist; and Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.
Several voter surveys have shown that Mr. Giuliani has come close to second, or even surpassed, Mr. Zeldin in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Even if Mr. Zeldin is the winner on Tuesday, it will be an uphill climb to the governor’s mansion in Albany. In pure statistical terms, the Republican Party is the third party in New York, following the Democratic Party with more than three million registered members, and also outnumbers non-affiliated voters. And the calculation for Republicans to win a statewide election generally means winning at least 30 percent of the vote in New York City, which has a majority of Democrats.
However, with voters nationwide rejecting Democratic leadership, and concerns about crime and soaring costs of living in New York, Republicans believe this year could be an exception for That awesome achievement. Even Democrats concede that this could be a good year for Republicans, who have lost their last seat of power in Albany – control of the state Senate – in the election. 2018.
Mr. Zeldin insists that his proposed policies will not change even after the primary, and emphasizes that he believes New Yorkers are most focused on issues in the kitchen such as the economy, taxes and public safety.
“These are issues that resonate with Republicans, these are issues that resonate with independents, and they resonate with party members,” he said in an interview. Democracy”. on issues like guns, “My position will not change. My positions have not changed.”
Like other Republicans, he also tried to emphasize less polarizing policies – mocking the “geniuses of Albany” and pitching ideas like stopping immigration from the state, as well as reducing crime and government mandates.
“We rule the government,” he said. “They don’t rule us.”
Likewise, Zeldin’s main Republican opponents seem to know the calculations Republicans must make with voters.
Mr. Wilson, a wealthy Greek-American who grew up in Johnstown, NY and now lives in Scarsdale, NY, was perhaps the campaign’s closest approximation to moderates, having spoken out in favor of abortion rights and tried Advisor to the Treasury Department under President Barack Obama. He said he refused to vote for Mr. Trump in 2020 and wrote on Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador under Mr. Trump.
Mr. Wilson, who has invested more than $10 million of his own money in his campaign, also rejected kneeling trials on social issues, saying he was running on an economic background. He likes to make brief key points about overhauling the state government and producing more housing units.
“What I’m trying to do is show very clearly how I am different from any other candidate,” Mr. Wilson said in a recent interview. “You used the term moderately. I think of it as a non-politician – an outsider who has spent his entire career fixing failed organizations. And we need to hire a governor capable of fixing the most failed state government in the country.”
Mr. Astorino, a former Westchester County executive, knows about the challenges to winning statewide in New York; he is the man of the party unsuccessful candidate for governor in 2014. However, he has advertised something that Republicans have often brushed aside in primaries in recent years: suffrage. He argued that Zeldin’s voting in Albany and Washington made him toxic to many New Yorkers.
“I am the most electable Republican in this race,” he said, noting that he had won a record number of Democratic votes in “overwhelming blue Westchester County.”
In an interview, Mr. Astorino downplayed the impact of Mr. Trump’s shadow on the race, stressing that voters would focus more on real-life concerns than on whom Mr. can support.
“There is quality of life, chaos, danger, radicalism on hold for advancements right now,” he said. “All of that is just a side issue in this, but the basics are economics, taxes, jobs and crime.”
During the first debate, Mr Astorino also went further than any other candidate in tying Mr Trump to the January 6 attack on the Capitol, calling it “a terrifying day in the history of the nation” ours” and said Mr Trump “takes some responsibility. “
Mr. Giuliani appears to be the most willing to capture the furthest discussion points, seemingly hoping to energize the establishment. by leaning on his father and emphasizing divisive cultural-war themes. He opposes the “left-wing media,” the review of transgender people and critical racial theories.
Mr. Giuliani, who worked in the Trump administration for four years, also actively sought Trump’s support and unequivocally voiced his belief in the baseless conspiracy theory that Mr. Trump won the 2020 election. , the result of which he called “one of the greatest crimes in American history.”
But in terms of political background and experience, Mr. Zeldin, who has represented the eastern part of Long Island since 2015, seems to have the upper hand.
Trained as a lawyer, Mr. Zeldin crossed the bar at the age of 23 and served in the United States Army as an intelligence officer and prosecutor, as well as being deployed to Iraq with the 82nd Squadron in 2006. He still serves in the Army Reserve; Married to twin daughters, Mr. Zeldin likes to joke that he is “the fourth-highest person” in his family.
On a recent Thursday night, in front of a group of well-dressed Republicans at an elegant event space in Poughkeepsie, NY, Mr. Zeldin noted all the reasons he had not to. running for governor, including that he could easily win another term and perhaps already have a leadership position in a potential Republican majority in the House.
But he said he was called to run to “save our state”, arguing – in one of his campaign catchphrases – that “loss is not an option.”
“I’m not in this race to win the primary,” Mr Zeldin said, causing the audience to stand up. “I’m in this race to win in November.”
