The 2021 National League Cy Young Race is a fascinating study.
A case could easily be made for four different pitchers to get votes in first place. My ballot, at different stages of the research, had several different combinations of the top four pitchers, and fifth place on the ballot had several different names. Turns are important, but dominance is also important. How to mix and match to find a vote?
We’ll get to that in a moment.
THAN: MLB Awards 2021: Full List of Finalists, Winners
This is my third NL Cy Young vote. The first was 2015, the year Jake Arrieta won, and the top of my ballot looks like this:
1. Zack Greinke, Dodgers
2. Jake Arrieta, Cubs
3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
This is column explanation I wrote, if you are interested. I re-read that passage (and my 2017 explanatory column) many times because I try to stay consistent with the way I vote for awards and the Hall of Fame. The thing is, there’s not much of a comparison between the Cy Young class of 2015 and the Cy Young class of 2021. Greinke, Arrieta, and Kershaw – in whatever order you want – all had much better seasons than they did. with anyone in this year’s class. Here’s the most obvious difference: All three threw at least 55 2/3 more innings than the No. 1 pitcher on my 2021 ballot. Yes.
Greinke has made 32 starts, allowing for more than three runs just twice, and his ERA has never topped 2.00 (his FIP never topped 1.66 after his th start). two). In his last 20 starts, Arrieta has an ERA of 0.86 and holds the opponents to 0.410 OPS. Kershaw hit the 300 strike mark (301) and had a 2.13 ERA in 232 2/3 rounds.
But, as Mark McGwire famously said before Congress, we’re not here to talk about the past.
Here’s my vote, with thoughts on each pitcher.
1. Corbin Burnes, Brewers
Here’s the point: I believe the innings are important in this debate. The longer pitchers start off on a field that offers quality innings, the greater their value. It’s a cascading effect; mostly plays from an ace-type starter allowing for a lighter workload for the thursday quitters. So Burnes, with just 167 rounds in 28 starts, has plenty of ground to compare with Cy Young’s opponents Zack Wheeler (213 1/3 of 32) and Walker Buehler (207 2/3 of 33). . Max Scherzer had 179 innings of the third, which is not a huge difference.
In my opinion, Burnes is not going to distance himself from the recent Cy Young winners – Jacob deGrom in 2018 or 2019, Scherzer in 2016 or 2017 – or, as I mentioned, any of the three hands. top NL pitcher in 2015. But he didn’t compete with pitchers. With that said, I’ll stop talking about the past for now, I promise.
Instead, let’s talk about how brilliant Burnes was in his 167 plays on the mound in 2021 – because, as you know by now, I told you I voted for him first, I believe he created that gap among the 200-round hurdlers. . Burnes dropped out just seven times going home all season. His FIP 1.63 is purely historic. Both numbers blew Wheeler and Buehler away. His BB/9 (1.8) and K/9 (12.6) are best both right, obviously his K/BB (6.88). In addition to leading the league in ERA (2.43) and FIP (1.63), Burnes also comes out on top in DRA (2.63). He beat the opponent by 0.521 OPS; For context, there are 133 hitters in 2021 who have enough PA to qualify for the batting title and the worst OPS of the bunch is Kevin Newman, at 0.574. Burns essentially cause everyone to be hit significantly harder than the person who gets hit most frequently in baseball.
In April, Burnes hit 49 fights and didn’t walk. He had nine runs from late June to mid-August, of which he was only allowed to run more than once. He has had seven starts this year in which he threw at least six official innings and has had two or fewer hits on target, including his eight-inning miss on target. September, when he beat 14 Cleveland hitters (and Josh Hader finished the match off target).
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Wheeler has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for since they signed the facilitator on a five-year, $118 million free agent deal after the 2017 season. Wheeler led the way. started the MLB with 213 innings of the third and ended an attack back against MLB leader Robbie Ray, with 247 goals. He posted career bests at K/9 (10.4) and BB/9 (1.9) and of course, K/BB (5.37).
Wheeler had 17 starts with at least seven complete sets; only two other pitchers had more than 13. Of those 17 with at least seven innings, Wheeler allowed one or zero to earn 10 runs. In a span of 5 starts in June and July, he exited the game without allowing a run four times.
However, Wheeler encountered some hiccups along the way. He dropped at least four runs earning nine times in his 32 starts. His ERA for August was 4.81 – and that includes his discontinuation of two complete Mets games on August 8. Of course, he follows with an ERA of 1.47 in September. I can totally understand the voters who put Wheeler at the top of their ballot.
THAN: Sporting News MLB Award 2021, voted by players, managers and executives
3. Max Scherzer, Dodgers / Nationals
Mad Max certainly did his best when he arrived in Los Angeles. That 0.78 ERA in his first nine starts with the Dodgers brings back memories of Arrieta’s Cy Young push in 2015, when he had a 0.41 ERA in the last ten starts of the season. prize. Dammit. Talk about the past again. OK, no more starting… now. The Dodgers needed all those great outings, chasing a Giants team in the NL West didn’t give up; LA won all nine of those Scherzer starts. His last two starts – five earned in each game – weren’t great, and then it was a grotesque season.
It seemed like Scherzer was really good or pretty mediocre all season, with very little in the way of the center forward. He made 30 starts of the year and dropped zeros, one or two earning 24. He dropped four or more earned runs (up to seven) six times. He allows exactly three runs that earn 0x. Either brilliant or “meh” every time it appears, with the bright side of the encapsulated ledger. The most impressive stat, possibly, for Scherzer this year: When the runner-up is in the scoring position (base two or/and three), the opponent has only 0.454 OPS to Scherzer. That’s very good, and it’s much better than Burnes (.690) or Wheeler (.707), and that’s why I can totally understand the voters who put Scherzer at the top of their ballot.
4. Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Buehler is Mr. Quality Start for the Dodgers in 2021. Right-handers have 27 quality starts – defined as at least six innings thrown, allowed to run three or less – and no one else in baseball has more than 23 28, too, but he was pulled after 79 pitches and five innings of work in Game 162, with the Dodgers, 6-1. He only allowed three shots and beat 11 beer sellers. In a 20-game span that ran from mid-May to late August, Buehler made 19 quality starts and didn’t give up more than three earned.
Now, of course, QS is not an error-free indicator. Of course not. But it’s like Wikipedia – a good place to start and help you figure out where to dig deeper. In those 20 starts with 19 QS, Buehler’s ERA is 1.57 and the Dodgers win 15 times. Like his last teammate, Scherzer, Buehler is at his best with junior runners; he allows 0.583 overall opponent OPS, and that drops to 0.522 with the runner-up in the scoring position. Unsurprisingly, his 80.9 ratio to the left is higher than Burnes (75.7) and Wheeler (75.3). Definitely understand the considerations to put Buehler at the top of the ballot.
5. Adam Wainwright, Cardinal
In my opinion, the top four pitchers on my ballot are the four best pitchers in the National League. The question is who gets that fifth vote? Plenty of candidates for that position, a list that includes, in no particular order: Adam Wainwright, Julio Urias, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Charlie Morton, Sandy Alcantara and Marcus Stroman. I wouldn’t have a hard time voting for any excellent pitcher in fifth place.
Wainwright nodded. It’s true that his numbers in some of the statistics we’ve looked at are key – like FIP and WAR, plus many others – don’t measure up to others. But those measures measure an effective pitch, largely based on bats hitting the ball. However, that’s not the only way to become an effective pitcher, and that’s not Wainwright’s approach. His goal is to launch attacks, inflict weak contact, and stir up rounds, and no one does it better than Wainwright. Because, again, innings still matter. The days of 250-round pitchers may be over, but there’s still a lot of value in a guy who will lead the league in rounds, especially if it’s quality innings.
Wainwright has thrown at least eight innings seven times in 2021, drawing with Alcantara the most in baseball. He went through nine games from mid-July to early September – when the Cardinals were threatening to disband – when he threw at least seven innings seven times. The stretch consisted of a complete stoppage and an eight-round effort; His ERA for that period was 1.54. Wainwright completed at least seven innings of 16 times, more than anyone else in baseball besides Wheeler (17). Add the run component to it – two ERs or less – and Wainwright is tied with Buehler and Alcantara for the MLB lead, with 13. Set the parameters at seven plays and zero or one earned run, and Wainwright stands. start with 11.
He’s also alone in fifth place on this Cy Young ballot.
