Three weeks after February 10 Minnesota Vikings to be underdog in Detroit lionMinnesota finds itself in another polarizing position in the NFL betting market: the Week 17 game against Green Bay Packers.
American bettors opened Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite at Lambeau Field and respected money crossed the 3 to -3.5 limit at most sportsbooks. FOX Bet is still processing Packing Machine -3 (-120) with a total score of 48.5.
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Green Bay won and drew three games in a row, and the Packers were only half way behind Washington D.C for the final NFC playoff spot. But wait, why is Green Bay favored when Minnesota is the 2nd seed at its convention?
“Record only matters for seeding in the playoffs,” a veteran Las Vegas bookmaker told FOX Sports. “Recent form and health are both important. It’s the North Star when you update your power rating.
“I’ve got Green Bay as the fourth-highest team in NFC right now. They’re favored on a neutral venue against Tampa . BayMinnesota, Seattle, Detroit and Washington. And all five of those teams are higher in the rankings.”
Legendary Vegas odds maker Kenny White agrees.
He has San Francisco rated as the best team in NFC at 108th place, followed by dalas and Philadelphia at 106 and Green Bay at 100. So White’s power rating puts the Niners in favor of two points on a neutral site over the Cowboys and Eagles and eight points over the Cheeseheads.
White currently has Minnesota in 98th place.
“Add to home yard and the Aaron Rodgers and I’m at -5.”
Green Bay looked like a completely different team in the last month, mainly because the offensive line and assist room are still as healthy as they have been throughout the season. When I say that, the rookie expands Christian Watson [hip] has yet to train this week, but there’s still a chance he could go this Sunday.
Either way, Rodgers’ growing health is the most important issue and his offensive line stability also ranks high. Don’t think for a second that a rookie receiver is so important that it goes viral.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ defense – or lack of defense – has been alarmingly high in their last six games. They have been carved like a Christmas ham by people like Mac Jones [382 passing yards], White Mike [369], Jared Goff [330] and Daniel Jones [334] in that period of time. It’s not exactly a killer’s line.
Rodgers is forever dangerous in positions like this, and if the average midfielders of the league I just mentioned can succeed against the Minnesota defence, imagine what the No 12 can do.
“You can never rule out Rodgers,” the Vegas bookie quips. “I don’t like him and can’t wait for him to retire. But he’s a bad guy.”
Isn’t that the truth?
PICK: Packers (-3 at FOX Bets) to win more than 3 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He has previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably choose against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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