The shift from travel caused by the pandemic has left empty seats on the once packed trains and buses that brought commuters from New Jersey to New York City. But that overcrowding is set to return and could get worse over the next decade as the area’s population grows and more employers call workers back to their offices, a new study concludes.
Even if working from home quadruples from pre-pandemic levels, more commuters will still land on trains and buses to cross the Hudson River from New Jersey on some days of the week compared with the year. 2019, according to the study, expected to be published on Wednesday by the Regional Planning Association.
The study comes at a critical time for long-delayed plans to build one more rail tunnel beneath the Hudson — a $30 billion project that has already garnered momentum and mainstream backing. but still requires federal and state funding.
The researchers found that future crowding is likely to be worst on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays – the days when workers are most likely to be in the office, the study found. rescue said. On those days, there could be 46,000 more vehicle passengers passing through Hudson in 2030 than in 2019, an increase of more than 10%.
For a transit network that is already overcrowded and prone to problems and delays, that can cause problems. More than 400,000 passengers passed through Hudson on trains and buses every weekday in 2019, many of them side-by-side in the aisles as they arrived at Pennsylvania Station and the Port Authority Bus Terminal.
Back then, transportation executives and elected officials were rallying in favor of the construction of a second railroad tunnel between New Jersey and Penn Station to supplement the existing pair of single-track pipelines already under construction. built more than 110 years ago. As part of a $30 billion project called Gateway, the tunnel will improve reliability and help meet the need for additional capacity, officials said.
But just as political support for Gateway was building, Covid drove most of those commuters away. The number of vehicles gradually decreased as people stayed at home, leaving only the most essential workers to continue to work. Seat numbers started filling up again as the pandemic broke out, but passenger numbers are still far below 2019 levels.
Thomas K. Wright, executive director of the Regional Planning Association, a strong supporter of the project, said: “However, the study presents four scenarios for growth rates in the region that show an Commuters’ favorites will be back soon, Mr. Wright said.
“Even if the return to offices is slow and job growth is modest, we will need the extra capacity that Gateway will bring,” said Mr. Wright.
The tunneling has not yet begun and is expected to be completed in a decade. The project’s funding, which will likely be split between the federal government and the states of New York and New Jersey, remains to be reckoned with.
The project enjoys broad support from elected officials in the region. But Republicans from other parts of the country have opposed a large federal investment there and prevented the project from progressing under the Trump administration.
It has also faced criticism for its staggering estimated price, concerns about the potential for massive cost overruns, and doubts about its need outside of the pandemic. Richard Florida, a professor at the Toronto City School, said forecasting travel patterns in and around major cities after the pandemic is a complex task.
“The Central Business District is the last vestige of the old industrial age,” Florida said. “The office space where you pack and stack your knowledge workers and they’re all glued to their laptops, I think that’s a thing of the past.”
Mr. Wright said it was urgent for states to reach a deal they could present with the federal Department of Transportation before the midterm elections, when Democrats look likely to cede control of Congress. “Starting next January, it could be much more difficult to work with the federal government on this issue,” Mr. Wright said.
Stephen Sigmund, a spokesman for the Gateway project, welcomed the report’s findings. “For two years, some have questioned whether the Gateway is as urgently needed as it is in the post-Covid era,” he said. “This report shows that the answer is yes.”
Regardless of the past in favor of Gateway, Mr. Wright said that if his organization’s analysis concluded that the tunnel would not be needed anytime soon, he would say so. “We support the integrity of our research,” he said.
Analysts estimate that commuters who frequented Manhattan were only working from home about one day a month on average, before the pandemic. They calculated the long-term effects on Trans-Hudson’s commute if they continued to work from home about twice a month, or even once a week, on average.
They tested those scenarios with both strong and slow growth rates for population and employment in the region. In all cases, they found that overall demand for seats on trains and buses crossing the Hudson would exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2050, if not earlier.
According to their analysis, in all but the slow growth, most work from home scenario, that new highs of demand will come in 2040, several years after the Gateway is scheduled to be completed. They concluded: If the region’s economy grows as rapidly as it has in recent decades, additional capacity may be needed even before the Gateway can be completed, especially in the middle of the workweek.
Mr. Florida said commuting patterns will inevitably change, but with traffic on the streets returning to pre-pandemic levels, a lot more people will be taking transit into the city for work and leisure purposes. other entertainment, such as attending concerts and sporting events.
“To me, it seems like the long-term issue is that if you’re going to run an area of 20 to 25 million people, the car just won’t work,” Florida said. “I’m not sure that the Gateway tunnel will even solve it.”
