The MLS Cup knockout is down to the last four games. Rather than surprising for this tournament, those are the usual doubts: your Support Shield winners, LAFC; the Philadelphia Unionwho has completed the season level in points with Black and Gold; Austin FC, the 2nd seed at the Western Conference; and New York City FCyour defending MLS Cup champion.
Sure, this post-season period has seen some turmoil, but this is one of the most frequent seasonal convention finals in recent memory. LAFC, Philadelphia and Austin are three of the league’s top five teams from start to finish this season, and with the exception of a few CONCACAF Champions League-related hiccups and an adjustment period following the departure of the player. 2021 Golden Shoe winner Valentin Castellanos and esteemed manager Ronny Deila, NYCFC can also consider itself part of that group.
With the congress final set to begin on Sunday, ESPN asked Jeff Carlisle and Austin Lindberg to split both games, and asked Kyle Bonagura and Dan Hajducky to help them predict the two teams that will make it to the MLS Cup on Saturday. next.
Eastern Conference
Ending last season’s knockout stages will certainly be tough for Philadelphia. Having lost the Eastern Conference final to NYCFC while 11 players were absent due to COVID protocol, Union then had to watch the Bronx Blues go to Portland and defeat the Timbers in the MLS Cup.
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That should be enough motivation on Sunday. However, Philly still has a lot to prove.
Union have won both of their encounters with NYCFC this season, 2-1 at home and 2-0 at home, outperforming their opponents in both expected goal (xG) 4.06-2.78 and chance 22-19 in two matches. Despite Philadelphia’s dominance this season as Eastern Conference champions, scored with the most points in the league in 2022 and its highest-scoring team, they’re pretty well gone. ahead in creating chances (13th) and conceding (14th), and trails behind NYCFC in both categories as well as xG and shots on target.
However, from the goal, Philly was not equal in the MLS. Their total of 26 goals is the best in the league and Andre Blake11.24 goals prevented is good enough for second place.
Even without Castellanos, the depth and variety of attackers NYCFC can take on is impressive. Between their two playoff wins to date and the final three of the regular season, Santiago Rodriguez, Talles Magno, Gabriel Pereira, Heber and Maxi Moralez combined for 10 goals and eight assists. That kind of form would terrify any post-season opponent.
However, Philadelphia is more than just a post-season opponent. Blake is arguably the best goalkeeper in MLS history, Jack Elliott and Jakob Glesnes is one of the top central defenders in the league, Kai WagnerThe left-back’s sustained performances have attracted considerable interest from European clubs and Jose Martinez provided enough support to the backline for them to concede the sixth fewest goals on target in the MLS. Oh, and no one in the league has scored more than Union’s 73 goals in 2022. – Lindberg
Guess:
Coalition found it difficult when 11 players were eliminated from last year’s convention final against NYCFC because of COVID protocol. This is a chance to make amends, and their balance will get the job done against defensive champions. – Carlisle
It was a match of different philosophies: NYCFC, a prominent name of City Football Group’s global empire; and Philadelphia, a homegrown plant, with an eye for talent. Both philosophies have clearly worked, but Union this season have played at a level their opponents have never reached, even as they were on their way to winning the MLS Cup last year. Philadelphia is the choice. – Bonagura
NYCFC quickly dispatched to Miami and overtook Montreal, scoring three goals in each of Round One and the semifinals of the convention, but Philadelphia will continue their historic season and thwart NYCFC’s foul streak. There’s a long way to go for Union – along with the Phillies in the World Series and the still undefeated Eagles – who will mark exactly this moment for City of Brotherly Love by reaching the franchise’s first MLS Cup final. Commerce. – Hajduck
It wasn’t just Philadelphia’s incredible defense and goalkeeping ability against NYCFC’s hot attack. The form New Yorkers are on will cause fear on the eve of Halloween, but on solid ground at the back, Union boasts some of the best scoring numbers in the league. – Lindberg
Western Conference
For all the talk of MLS parity, the two best Western Conference teams in the regular season have actually made it to the finals. Of course it’s not easy. LAFC needs a goal at death to get through LA Galaxy. Austin needs punishments to survive the conference semi-final against Real salt lake. But here we are, and this has all the texture of a rift match.
Austin had the upper hand throughout the regular season, picking up a pair of wins, the second beating Black Gold 4-1 at the Q2 Stadium. But the LAFC has since added a trump card to an already stacked hand. It’s lost Denis Bouangas It took a while to find his feet with LAFC, but he has excelled in the past month and scored two goals against the Galaxy. He has also provided additional dynamism, especially when dribbling, to an attack LAFC has boasted Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango.
The Verde there are some high value cards to play in addition to the MVP candidate Sebastian Driussi. Diego Fagundez has enjoyed a resurgence in Austin, with his 21 combined goals and assists in his career. His ability to attack from free kicks is an asset that tends to come in handy in the post-season period.
Both teams wanted to break out during the transition. That’s where people like Driussi and Vela thrive. The question is: Who will allow that to happen? Given that Austin is on the way, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them bench and counter-attack, even though they were on the front foot in the aforementioned 4-1 win back in August. Alex Ring is completely adept at sitting with Daniel Pereira and congestion in between. That will affect LAFC’s Ilie Sanchez — And to a lesser extent Kellyn Acosta and Jose Cifuentes – keep tactical discipline and don’t get stuck in a vulnerable defensive shape.
One area where Austin seems to have an edge is the goal. Brad Stuver (According to ESPN stats & info, 4.49 saves) is significantly better than LAFC’s Max Crepeau (-3.04 saved), and Stuver has had the outstanding experience in the series. penalty shootout. But it’s all about who shows up for the day. – Carlisle
Guess:
Both teams are in good form, but I’m going to play against LAFC here, as Black and Gold finally counted home advantage in a conference final. – Carlisle
Just as interesting as a underdog story, but this stage of the knockout round is often better when the strongest teams in the regular season are still alive. That is the case here. LAFC and Austin were the tier of the Western Conference all season and both took the league forward and off the field. Despite Austin’s two wins over Black and Gold this season, look for LAFC to take advantage of their home ground and reach the MLS Cup final for the first time. – Bonagura
Don’t think too much: Austin has had a great 2022, but marching to Banc of California Stadium with a trip to the Cup final is a Herculean mission. LAFC will finish it on their way to their first appearance. – Hajduck
LAFC faltered in the interval, but their collegiate semi-final victory over Galaxy showed determination in a moment where the team’s previous iterations would wilt. That gritty experience will come in handy against an Austin team that looks set to return to top form. – Lindberg
