Masters 2024: Why the best strikers are rewarded more often at Augusta National

The Masters, more than any of the four major championships, can be calculated through trends. That’s partly because Augusta National is the only major that offers the same course every year, which makes its past history more valuable than other majors. According to the statisticians who run Data Golf, a player’s past results there have a disproportionate influence on his current performance compared to regular PGA Tour events.

We haven’t seen a first-timer at Augusta National win the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and considering the importance of both. experience in Augusta and the fact that players who are playing their second, third, fourth (etc.) Masters are probably just playing better golf than first-timers, we’re unlikely to do that in 2024.

However, it is not the only trend nor is it the most important as it relates to trying to find a champion.

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A consistent trend is that the eventual champion of a given Masters will be in the top 10 after the first day of play. That happened now every year for the past 18 years except for Tiger Woods in 2019 (that year Woods ranked T11) and 2005 (outside the top 10). In other words, no one not named Tiger has won the Masters outside the top 10 after Round 1 since 2004.

Other emerging trends occur because there is a more natural drive for this major compared to some other majors. Golfers play constantly so there is a lot of data to analyze. That brings us to another trend that recently caught my attention.

Of the last 12 Masters champions, 10 of them gained 1.7 strokes or better from tee to green in the three months leading up to the event. The only ones who didn’t: Patrick Reed in 2018 and Hideki Matsuyama in 2021.

Here’s a look at the SG tees going green from January 1 leading into Masters week for the last 12 winners.

~ Only two events were measured

This makes sense. The players who hit the ball best in the weeks leading up to the first major event of the year continued to hit the ball well at that event. We know the Masters will be won (as all majors are won) by putting. Traditionally, playing iron was the most important factorand that’s certainly been factored into these tee-to-green numbers.

It’s nice to be able to narrow down the list of players who could win the Masters this year. It’s not certain, but as we said before, the Masters seems to have a tendency to be more related to other major championships. This year, the list of players scoring 1.7 SG on the green or better off the tee is just six players long.

Below is a list of all golfers with a tee score of 1.7 SG to green or better as of January 1 entering the 88th Masters.

This data does not include LIV Golf players. Although they have published some shot level data, Data Golf has not included it and it is important to keep this data as clear and simple as possible. However, we can guess that Rahm and Joaquin Niemann will be included in this list, based on how well they hit the ball.

The climax is not surprising. Scheffler, Schauffele and Matsuyama all did very well this year, although only Scheffler and Matsuyama won. The next three things may be surprising. Kim is flying under the radar. The narrative around McIlroy is that he’s a bit lost (he’s not), and Thomas has been terrible of late. But numbers are numbers, and all six make the cut here.

When you pair my stats above with these on who won the most strokes in the last four tournaments, The list is even shorter. Of course, all the data more or less points to one thing: this tournament Scheffler will lose.

However, if he loses it, remember the names on this list. One of them has a huge chance to come from behind and win his first (or second) green jacket.